Hotcoin Research | East Rising, West Advancing: Signals of a Reshaped Global Crypto Landscape at Year-End
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Hotcoin Research | East Rising, West Advancing: Signals of a Reshaped Global Crypto Landscape at Year-End
The crypto market is in a structural recovery phase, with BTC falling below the bull-bear boundary line. For the market to resume an upward trend, it must break through key price levels, and the Federal Reserve's December 10 decision will be a significant catalyst
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsCrypto Market Performance
The current total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.05 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.7%, or $1.79 trillion. The stablecoin market cap stands at $308.2 billion, up 0.85% over the past seven days—marking the second consecutive week of positive growth—with USDT representing 60.2%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most declined while a few rose: BTC dropped 3% over seven days, ETH fell 4.38%, SOL declined 4.03%, LUNC surged 62.7%, and CHEEMS gained 11.15%.
This week, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $88.1 million; U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $65.6 million.
Market outlook (December 8 – December 14):
The current RSI index is 42.7 (neutral range), the Fear & Greed Index is 22 (lower than last week, indicating extreme fear), and the Altseason Index is 37 (neutral, unchanged from last week).
Market sentiment: The market is currently in a critical window for structural recovery and trend confirmation. Over recent weeks, after a panic-driven sell-off, markets have seen a significant rebound, primarily driven by improved macro liquidity expectations (rising odds of Fed rate cuts and an end to quantitative tightening) and short covering following the clearance of panic sellers. However, whether this rebound can evolve into a sustained trend still depends on breaking through key price levels.
According to the latest technical analysis, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have broken below the crucial "bull-bear line," shifting their short- to medium-term technical outlook from bullish to neutral or even slightly bearish. To resume an upward trend, the market must first effectively reclaim the following key levels:
BTC core range: $90,000–95,000
ETH core range: $3,000–3,500
SOL core range: $130–150
Risk: Monitor the Federal Reserve’s actions on December 10. Market expectations for rate cuts (currently as high as 82.8%) remain the primary driver recently. Any disappointment in these expectations could trigger sharp volatility. Beware of “fragile rallies”: if prices rise without a corresponding increase in trading volume, a pullback may follow.
Understanding the Present
Recap of the Week's Major Events
1. On December 1, Bloomberg reported that prediction market platform Kalshi faced a class-action lawsuit alleging it conducted sports betting-related operations without state gambling licenses and made misleading statements regarding its market-making activities;
2. On December 1, David Sacks, White House Director of Crypto and AI, publicly challenged a New York Times investigation into his conduct during his tenure, arguing the report spent months pursuing unsubstantiated allegations;
3. On December 5, according to lookonchain monitoring, Circle minted another 500 million USDC one hour ago. Over the past month, Circle has cumulatively issued 10 billion USDC;
4. On December 3, former U.S. President Trump stated during a cabinet meeting that he might announce the next Federal Reserve Chair early next year, adding that Treasury Secretary Beisent does not want the position. Trump said he has evaluated ten candidates and only one remains. Later, during a White House meeting, Trump introduced Hassett, saying the potential Fed Chair is right here. Trump also reiterated his criticism of Powell, noting even JPMorgan CEO Dimon believes Powell should lower interest rates;
5. On December 4, Vanguard, the world’s second-largest asset manager, reversed its stance, with Bank of America recommending investors allocate 1%-4% to digital assets;
6. On December 4, Cointelegraph reported that the Meme coin PEPE's official website was hacked and is now redirecting users to malicious links;
7. On December 5, Meta is considering cutting its Metaverse division budget by 30% next year; its stock closed up 3.4%;
8. On December 5, the National Internet Finance Association of China jointly issued a new risk alert with multiple agencies warning against illegal activities involving virtual currencies—three years after the previous crypto risk notice. Looking back over the past five years, the association has released four major announcements at key market hype points;
9. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has for the first time allowed listed spot crypto products to trade on its registered futures exchanges—a significant breakthrough in the U.S. regulatory framework. Bitnomial Exchange plans to launch a CFTC-regulated leveraged retail spot platform on December 8;
10. On December 4, Ethereum's mainnet successfully activated its 17th major upgrade, "Fusaka," marking Ethereum's formal adoption of an accelerated development rhythm of "two hard forks per year";
11. Binance founder CZ stated his future focus will shift to the BNB Chain ecosystem and serving as a crypto advisor to multiple governments; co-founder He Yi officially assumed the role of Binance Co-CEO.
Macroeconomics
1. On December 3, U.S. November ADP employment change was -32,000, compared to an expected gain of 10,000 and a prior revised figure of +42,000;
2. On December 4, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 were 191,000—the lowest since the week of September 24, 2022. The estimate was 220,000, and the previous figure was revised from 216,000 to 218,000;
3. On December 5, the U.S. September Core PCE Price Index YoY came in at 2.8%, below the expected and prior 2.9%;
4. On December 6, according to the Fed Funds Rate monitor, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 82.8%.
ETF
Data shows that between December 1 and December 5, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced net outflows of $88.1 million. As of December 5, GBTC (Grayscale) has had cumulative outflows of $25.001 billion, currently holding $14.964 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) holds $69.453 billion. The total market cap of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $117.67 billion.
U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $65.6 million.
Looking Ahead
Event Preview
1. Bitcoin MENA will take place at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC) from December 8 to 9;
2. Solana Breakpoint 2025 will be held in Abu Dhabi from December 11 to 13.
Project Updates
1. Chainlink: The first season of Rewards distribution will end on December 9 at 22:00. Participants must allocate Cubes during the distribution period to claim tokens during the redemption phase (starting December 16);
2. Aster’s S4 buyback program will begin on December 10, with 60–90% of fees generated during the S4 phase used for token repurchases.
Key Events
1. On December 11 at 3:00 AM, the U.S. will release the upper bound of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision for the week ending December 10;
2. On December 11 at 9:30 PM, the U.S. will release initial jobless claims (in thousands) for the week ending December 6;
3. On December 12 at 1:00 AM, the Federal Reserve will publish data on U.S. household financial health from the 2025 Q3 Flow of Funds report.
Token Unlocks
1. Movement (MOVE) will unlock 161 million tokens on December 9, worth approximately $7.43 million, representing 1.62% of circulating supply;
2. CARV (CARV) will unlock 16.11 million tokens on December 10, valued at around $2.16 million, or 1.61% of circulating supply;
3. Linea (LINEA) will unlock 1.44 billion tokens on December 10, worth about $12.3 million, accounting for 2% of circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research arm of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for investors. Through our weekly insights and in-depth reports, we help you understand market dynamics. Our exclusive column “Top Picks” (powered by AI and expert screening) identifies high-potential assets and reduces trial-and-error costs. Each week, our analysts engage directly with you via live streams to interpret hot topics and forecast trends. We believe that personalized support and professional guidance empower more investors to navigate market cycles and capture value opportunities in Web3.
Risk Disclaimer
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and inherently risky. We strongly advise investors to fully understand these risks and operate within a strict risk management framework to ensure capital safety.
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