Four-year cycle ends, crypto market enters decade-long endurance battle
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Four-year cycle ends, crypto market enters decade-long endurance battle
It is unwise to blindly believe that the four-year cycle will mechanically repeat itself.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise
Translation: Luffy, Foresight News
In recent weeks, during meetings with institutional investors, the most frequently asked question has been: Is Bitcoin's four-year cycle still relevant?
The so-called four-year cycle refers to a historical pattern in Bitcoin’s price movement characterized by "three years of growth followed by a crash in the fourth year."
This question is crucial because, according to the logic of the four-year cycle, next year would be a difficult one for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.
While I cannot precisely predict cryptocurrency prices next year, I believe it is unwise to blindly assume that the four-year cycle will mechanically repeat itself. After all, the four-year cycle is not some golden rule etched in stone by a crypto deity. Instead, it emerged from three specific driving forces:
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Bitcoin halving events: The mining reward on the Bitcoin blockchain halves approximately every four years.
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Interest rate fluctuations: The spikes in interest rates in 2018 and 2022 both contributed to corrections in the crypto market.
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Boom-and-bust market cycles: Every major crypto downturn year (2014, 2018, 2022) came immediately after a strong upswing. For example, Bitcoin rose 5530% in 2013, 1349% in 2017, and 57% in 2021. During these periods of market frenzy, fraud and speculative bubbles flourish. Their collapse—such as regulatory crackdowns on ICOs in 2018 and the sudden fall of the FTX exchange in 2022—directly triggered the subsequent market crashes.
Today, these three drivers have either weakened significantly or are moving in the opposite direction of past cycles. The impact of Bitcoin halvings is less pronounced than it was four years ago; interest rates in 2026 are more likely to decline than rise; and the crypto market in 2025 has not exhibited the kind of euphoric surge seen in previous cycles.
Meanwhile, more decisive forces—especially the large-scale entry of institutional investors and the gradual maturation of regulatory frameworks—are building momentum for 2026. In our latest report, "Market Outlook for 2026," we forecast that Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs next year. At this point, I still believe this is the most likely outcome.
What Will Replace the Four-Year Cycle?
If the four-year cycle is indeed ending, a natural follow-up question arises: What new mental framework should we adopt for the crypto market in 2026 and beyond?
The four-year cycle once offered investors clear guidance. Knowing whether the market was in recovery, bull run, or crypto winter helped investors stay resilient during bear markets and remain rational during booms.
So what framework can replace it today?
The answer is: the decade-long endurance battle.
I know this sounds far less exciting than the four-year cycle. But hear me out, because I firmly believe this reflects the true nature of today’s market.
The endurance battle refers to a long-term tug-of-war between two forces: one being powerful, persistent, and steadily positive drivers; the other consisting of intermittent, intense but short-lived negative shocks.
The positive forces currently gaining momentum include accelerating institutional adoption, ongoing regulatory clarity, growing concerns over fiat currency devaluation, and the real-world deployment of use cases like stablecoins and asset tokenization.
These trends aim to disrupt deeply entrenched traditional systems—capital markets, global payment networks, and international monetary systems—and their full realization will inevitably take more than a decade. Early signs are already visible everywhere: billions of dollars flowing into crypto ETFs, crypto-related legislation advancing steadily through Congress, rapid expansion in the scale of stablecoins and tokenized assets, and more.
But progress will inevitably face resistance. Potential negative shocks include macroeconomic disruptions, waves of leveraged position liquidations, and malicious incidents such as hacks, scams, and exit frauds. These negative events typically last for weeks, months, or quarters.
Overall, the long-term influence of positive drivers vastly outweighs that of negative shocks. However, negative shocks strike quickly and can temporarily suppress the upward momentum. The market crash on October 10, 2025, serves as a textbook example: a macro shock triggered massive liquidation of leveraged crypto positions, causing a cliff-like market drop.
It is precisely this endurance battle dynamic that has created deep polarization in today’s crypto market: retail investors are mired in despair, while many institutional investors remain confidently bullish. The root lies in their vastly different time horizons. Retail investors focus on the aftermath of the October liquidation event; institutions look ahead to a future where stablecoin assets surpass $3 trillion by 2030.
Both perspectives are reasonable—they simply operate on different timescales.
What the Endurance Battle Means for Investors
For several months now, I’ve used the “endurance battle” framework to assess the market, and this approach has proven highly valuable. The endurance battle suggests the market will exhibit the following characteristics:
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Attractive but not extreme long-term returns
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Moderately reduced overall volatility
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Periodic corrections of 20%–40%
This means investors must take every market correction seriously, as they may last for extended periods. But as long as fundamentals remain strong, confidence in a price rebound should endure.
Looking back, I believe the crypto market officially entered the endurance battle phase in January 2024, when spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved. This landmark event unleashed a wave of institutional investment—a trend I expect to last a full decade. The evidence supports this: since the ETFs launched, Bitcoin has risen 93% cumulatively, enduring three drawdowns exceeding 20% along the way.
I believe this return profile will persist for the foreseeable future. The endurance battle may lack the dramatic boom-and-bust swings of the past, but it signals a deeper transformation within the crypto industry. When an asset class matures, the era of endurance begins.
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