HTX DeepThink: Loose liquidity in August supported Bitcoin's strength, while macro data and policy signals remain key variables
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
HTX DeepThink: Loose liquidity in August supported Bitcoin's strength, while macro data and policy signals remain key variables
Policy benefits continue to unfold, and macro data will set the market tone.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insights
Since August, the crypto market has maintained its strong momentum, with Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high and Ethereum also surging significantly. As global liquidity remains ample and institutional confidence strengthens, crypto assets are reaching a pivotal moment at the intersection of policy, capital flows, and macroeconomic expectations. In this edition, HTX Research’s Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzes recent market movements by examining liquidity trends, on-chain activity, and upcoming key data and policy developments.
Global liquidity remains loose, institutional appetite grows
Global liquidity stayed elevated through late August. According to StreetStats, as of August 27, 2025, the M2 money supply across major global economies reached approximately $95.116 trillion, setting a new record high, with a three-month growth rate of 3.87%. This indicates that monetary conditions remain accommodative in the short term, providing strong support for Bitcoin’s rally. At the same time, institutional positioning has become more concentrated. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs held about 1.3 million BTC as of August 27, representing roughly 6% of the circulating supply. MicroStrategy added another 430 BTC between July and August, increasing its total holdings to 629,376 BTC, underscoring that short-term volatility has not dampened long-term institutional demand.
Regulatory tailwinds emerged in early August and continue to build momentum. On August 7, the U.S. President signed an executive order allowing 401(k) retirement plans to invest in alternative assets such as Bitcoin. This policy sparked market discussions in late August around new Bitcoin-based financial products. Given that 401(k) plans manage around $8.9 trillion in assets, even a 1% allocation to Bitcoin could generate nearly $89 billion in potential incremental demand.
On-chain metrics show short-term heat, but structural risks remain manageable
On-chain data shows elevated but still healthy conditions. By the end of August, the MVRV-Z score stood at approximately 2.49, above its historical average, suggesting potential for short-term pullbacks. However, the aSOPR was around 1.019 and NUPL at 0.558, indicating that both realized and unrealized profits remain stable, and the market has not shown signs of excessive froth.
Policy tailwinds continue, upcoming macro data to set tone
Upcoming macroeconomic data releases may influence market sentiment. The U.S. Commerce Department’s preliminary estimate showed real GDP grew at a 3.0% annualized rate in Q2, a significant improvement from Q1’s -0.5%, driven largely by a sharp decline in imports, rebounding consumer spending, and increased government expenditure. The market expects the second revision, due August 28, to be revised down to around 3% or even 2.4%. A downward revision could reinforce expectations for continued monetary easing. The July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, scheduled for release on August 29, is seen as the final key inflation indicator before the FOMC’s September meeting. Economists broadly anticipate core PCE year-over-year to rise slightly from 2.8% to 2.9%, with a monthly rate of about 0.3%, while overall PCE is expected to hold steady near 2.6%. Higher-than-expected figures could prompt markets to reassess the timing of Fed rate cuts, whereas softer data would likely be more favorable for Bitcoin.
Note: This article does not constitute investment advice nor any offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy any investment product.
About HTX
Founded in 2013, HTX has evolved over 12 years from a cryptocurrency exchange into a comprehensive blockchain business ecosystem, encompassing digital asset trading, financial derivatives, research, investment, incubation, and other services.
As a leading global Web3 gateway, HTX adheres to a development strategy centered on global expansion, ecosystem growth, wealth effect, and security compliance, delivering comprehensive, secure, and reliable value and services to crypto enthusiasts worldwide.
To learn more about HTX, visit https://www.htx.com/ or HTX Square, and follow us on X, Telegram, and Discord. For inquiries, please contact [email protected].
About HTX Research
HTX Research is the dedicated research arm of HTX, conducting in-depth analysis across cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends. It produces comprehensive reports and professional assessments, aiming to deliver data-driven insights and strategic foresight. HTX Research plays a vital role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting informed decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous methodologies and cutting-edge data analytics, HTX Research remains at the forefront of innovation, driving thought leadership and deepening understanding of evolving market dynamics. Visit us.
For further communication, please contact [email protected]
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
