9 Months, Millions in Profits! The "If I Don't Understand" Story of a Post-95s Trading King: From Margin Blowup to Billionaire in Crypto
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9 Months, Millions in Profits! The "If I Don't Understand" Story of a Post-95s Trading King: From Margin Blowup to Billionaire in Crypto
I once stayed awake for five or six days straight during the May 1st holiday, watching the market for 20 hours a day, and ended up losing several million dollars. Only losses can truly temper your mindset. As long as your USDT is still sitting in your account, and hasn't tangibly changed your life yet, your position remains open.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsIn the cutthroat arena of cryptocurrency, where rags-to-riches stories coexist with instant bankruptcies, a 95s-born trader using the ID "If I Don't Understand" has written his own legend—transitioning from traditional trade to crypto, rising to the top of derivatives leaderboards within nine months, and earning tens of millions in profits. He has become a powerful and highly instructive case study for countless market participants navigating turbulent waters.
Recently, "If I Don't Understand" (@butaidongjiaoyi) was invited to the OKX Singapore office for an in-person conversation with host Mia Milier (@mia_okx). This article compiles the core highlights from that dialogue.
From Traditional Trade to Crypto: From “Mining Millions” to “Back to Zero Overnight”
Born in 1996, "If I Don't Understand" began not as a trader but as an e-commerce entrepreneur running Amazon stores. In 2020, the explosive rise of SHIB and the emergence of AXS (Axie Infinity) cracked open a window through which he glimpsed the magic of the crypto world. His life path was forever intertwined with this 24/7 market.
Unlike many impulsive speculators, he entered the space with the rigor and diligence of an entrepreneur. By day, he managed daily operations of his online store; from 7 PM to 2 AM, he immersed himself in researching on-chain projects. His starting capital was negligible—just 7,000 RMB used to buy AXS—but it unexpectedly returned several multiples, opening the door to a new world.
After this initial success, "If I Don't Understand" officially embarked on his “on-chain gold rush” journey with a principal of around 30,000–50,000 RMB. He precisely captured the GameFi wave of 2021—a period when DeFi financial models were gamified. Rather than skimming the surface, he spent months playing nearly every GameFi project available, deeply studying their economic models and community mechanics. This extreme level of immersion brought rich rewards. Through projects like Radio Caca, BinaryX, Cryptominers, and Farmer World, he turned a small stake into his first million RMB. That fortune wasn’t just wealth accumulation—it was his first major validation of logic through deep research.
However, holding millions in cash changed his mindset, as is common for a young person only two or three years out of school. In May 2022, the market shifted violently: Ethereum plunged from $3,700 to $800 in a cliff-like collapse, worse even than the "519 Black Swan" event. Facing this trend, he kept adding positions, betting heavily on a rebound, trying to use capital to fight against the entire downward momentum—with predictable results. Within less than two months, his portfolio dropped over 95%, nearly wiping out all his gains, bringing him back to square one. This explosive loss became the most profound and painful lesson of his trading career.
"Only by working harder in reality can you truly bring liquidity into Web3." After the blowup, he didn’t give up. Instead, he returned to internet entrepreneurship. Using stable income from his main business, he gradually rebuilt his capital and staged a comeback. When re-entering the blockchain market, he adhered to one core principle: invest only with sufficient net worth—entry capital should be at least tens of thousands of RMB and must never involve debt, as leverage distorts investment psychology.
"Always respect the market—nothing is impossible." From then on, his trading style completely transformed—he stopped guessing tops and bottoms, focusing instead on profits earned through rigorous strategy and clear logic, while calmly accepting any outcome the market might deliver. Awakening from pain, "If I Don't Understand" underwent a true metamorphosis. He rode the BRC-20 inscription trend in 2023 and the subsequent MEME coin wave, achieving a second remarkable capital buildup and securing his first A8 result (a net worth reaching eight figures). This time, he was no longer a blindly confident gambler, but a hunter with clear strategy and tight logic. His largest on-chain profit came when he went long on Neiro while others were shorting. He also strategically positioned himself in Neiro, generating approximately $5 million in spot alone. Reflecting on his original motivation, it wasn’t mere short-term arbitrage—he was drawn to the kind of community consensus represented by Neiro.
"Why did I choose to go long? Because whenever I assess a trade, I reference certain 'benchmark' assets. At the time, meme projects like BONK and BOME, once listed on spot markets, had FDVs (fully diluted valuations) generally around $1 billion, sometimes reaching $2–3 billion. So for a project like Neiro, which already had decent IP value, I believed it could easily reach similar benchmark valuations. Therefore, after its launch, despite widespread shorting, I firmly went long—and successfully captured its surge to a $1 billion valuation. That was my first major profitable wave in the meme sector," he shared. Later, he shorted PNUT and TRUMP, achieving even greater results.
Public data shows that over the past nine months, his futures trading profits exceeded $10 million. In June this year, a single ETH trade yielded $7.5 million upon taking profit.
A $10 Million Trading System: Earn Only from "Consensus," Not Bet on Technology
To "If I Don't Understand," trading isn’t mysticism, but a system that can be deconstructed and learned. The core of this system isn’t chasing cutting-edge tech or complex indicators, but returning to the fundamentals of business and human nature—consensus. With real-money results totaling millions, he has proven a trading philosophy that appears simple yet is profoundly deep.
He cuts straight to the heart of buying tokens: "A token rises not because its technology is amazing, but because ‘people believe it’s worth that much.’" In his view, the trader’s core mission is to become a sharp "consensus hunter"—constantly seeking, judging, and validating where strong consensus forms, gathers, and erupts in the market. Technology, narrative, and community are merely tools and vehicles for building consensus.
How does one detect the early signs of consensus? "If I Don't Understand" answers: follow the liquidity. He expands his view beyond crypto to the broader macroeconomy. "Each era has its opportunities. Earlier, it was investing in factories; later, buying property. By the time I graduated, those opportunities were scarce. I saw money flowing into crypto—that’s where the opportunity lay." This same logic applies within crypto. He closely tracks "paradigm-shifting projects" capable of breaking liquidity bottlenecks and reaching $1 billion valuations, carefully observing the second and third waves they trigger. These projects define new wealth effects, naturally drawing capital and attention.
His rise perfectly reflects his strategy of switching sectors. He clearly breaks down the internal logic of three major waves: First Wave (GameFi): The gamification of DeFi. He sees GameFi as essentially repackaging the tedious process of "staking DeFi for APR" into a "gold farming" game—an evolution he calls DeFi 2.0. Deep research into their economic models enabled his initial capital accumulation.
Second Wave (Inscriptions/BRC-20): Short-cycle "boost economics." He characterizes its essence as a "Ponzi model" dependent on "more people knowing, more money entering" to sustain itself. Yet he sharply identifies its fatal flaw: unlike ICOs, inscription fees go to miners who have no incentive to pump prices. This dooms it to being a short-cycle wealth opportunity. Thus, after making 10x on Avalanche inscriptions, he quickly exited and moved on.
Third Wave (MEME): FOMO sentiment extended by Solana. He views memes as similar in logic to inscriptions—part of the transmission of attention economics, a continuation of Solana's wealth effect, further catalyzed by platforms like Pump.fun. His multi-million-dollar profits were achieved during this phase. A classic example was Neiro, where he referenced established memes like BONK—already valued at $1 billion—as "benchmarks," confidently going long when others were bearish, successfully capturing its massive run-up toward a $1 billion valuation.
"If I Don't Understand" excels not only in going long but also in shorting, with equally clear and deadly logic. He believes the best timing for shorting comes from precise emotional calibration. The core idea: when a project experiences a parabolic rally with no meaningful pullback, and its valuation reaches irrational heights far exceeding fundamentals, a brutal shakeout is inevitable to flush out early profit-takers. Using PNUT and TRUMP as examples, he explained his shorting decisions. Both projects surged shortly after listing on all major exchanges, yet showed no sign of washout. To him, such "pullback-free rallies" were the most dangerous signal, offering high-risk-reward ratios and high confidence for low-leverage short positions.
From Beginner to Master: A 4-Step Practical Guide Using Just One Phone
"My personal journey cannot be replicated, but my insights, patterns, and methods for seizing opportunities can be shared." "If I Don't Understand" distilled his experience into a highly actionable practical guide. At its core is the emphasis on systematically building your own trading framework through learning and practice—all under controlled risk.
It can only be "growing alone in uncharted territory." He firmly believes the blockchain industry is inherently self-taught, due to the speed of information iteration—no one can hold your hand through it. He himself gained invaluable firsthand experience by researching intensely every night from 7 PM to 2 AM, learning through hands-on trial and error, including losing money. He offers two efficient ways to filter information: First, the KOL filtering method. Instead of drowning in endless noise, identify KOLs who consistently discover and promote promising projects early. Following them effectively outsources your first layer of information screening, greatly improving efficiency. For example, the Thai Zoo hippo was found via a KOL. Second, the community deep dive method. Immersing yourself in a project’s Discord, Telegram, or other communities is key to assessing its vitality. A truly active community features genuine discussions, prompt Q&A, and positive sentiment. Conversely, if bots and shills dominate, the consensus is artificial.
How does one “position early when ignored, exit when crowded”? This ancient investment adage is given clear, operational signals by him: 1) Precise entry signal: When you see a project whose team is actively engaging on social media, has a clear roadmap, and is progressively delivering product features—yet hasn’t been widely recognized by the public—that’s the optimal early entry point. 2) Clear exit signal: When the project gains broad market awareness, FOMO explodes, and both media and communities are buzzing about it, and its valuation matches or exceeds comparable benchmark projects, risks are accumulating—time to consider phased exits. 3) Exclusive auxiliary indicator: He also monitors macro-related metrics as “canaries,” such as changes in the stock price of USDC issuer Circle, which can reflect overall market sentiment or expectations. News flow primarily serves two purposes: gauging expectations and enabling defensive moves.
Preserving principal is the prerequisite for a comeback—this is the ultimate ironclad rule he extracted from painful losses. He stresses never exposing your entire portfolio to high risk. You must always retain 30% to 50% of your capital—this is the “revolutionary spark” that allows rebirth in the next cycle. His tiered position management strategy: 1) Small capital (under tens of thousands RMB): Can be more aggressive—e.g., full exposure to meme coins—but must diversify across different tokens. Also, avoid holding more than 1% of any single token’s total supply to prevent detection and targeted washouts by project teams or large players.
2) Large capital: Safety is paramount. He explicitly states that his altcoin futures positions rarely exceed $100,000–200,000 USD. Beyond this size, liquidity becomes problematic—your position can be easily reverse-engineered by market-making counterparties, making you vulnerable to precise targeting. He recommends allocating most large capital to cyclical trades or quantitative strategies during range-bound markets.
3) Universal entry rhythm (“Quarter-Position Strategy”): A balanced approach combining offense and defense. Start with 25% of funds; if the trend diverges from expectations, deploy another 25% at a better price; keep the remaining 50% as strategic reserves, untouched until market stress fully dissipates or a highly certain opportunity emerges.
In addition, he believes traders must master the “universal language” of trading—basic technical indicators like candlestick patterns, MACD, KDJ, and RSI. However, he emphasizes these are only supplementary tools. Beyond them, he has developed his own unique principles and strategies.
He quantifies the abstract concept of “market sentiment” or “gut feel” into an observable metric—“momentum.” Example: When U.S. markets open, if Bitcoin rises 0.1% and Ethereum simultaneously rises 0.5%, Ethereum demonstrates strong momentum. Conversely, if Ethereum falls while Bitcoin rises, its momentum is weak. By observing how different assets react within a trend cycle, one can more accurately gauge the strength or weakness of market sentiment.
To achieve better entry prices and higher risk-reward ratios, he strongly recommends using limit orders instead of market orders. For long entries, he employs a “black swan order flow”—placing limit orders at pre-calculated key technical or psychological support levels during extreme market panic, picking up irrationally dumped “bloodied筹码” (low-cost positions). For shorts, he places limit orders at critical resistance levels. If price breaks and holds above that level, he immediately stops out; but as long as price fails to break through, the potential reward far outweighs the stop-loss risk.
The Endgame of Trading: Slow Wealth Wins, an Anti-Human-Nature Practice
When trading evolves from technique to philosophy, what’s tested is no longer models or tools, but the trader’s understanding of human nature, wealth, and self. "If I Don't Understand" brings his insights back to the core of this “nine-out-of-ten-die” game—an inner practice of defying human instinct.
He believes successful traders fall into two extreme archetypes: one defined by extreme greed, the other by extreme prudence. He classifies himself in the latter, though his prudence isn’t timidity. His approach: maintain conservatism in routine trading, but embrace necessary greed at moments of extremely high conviction.
"If you don’t go all-in, you’ll never achieve such results," he admits candidly. But this “going all-in” isn’t blind gambling—it’s a full commitment based on thorough logical analysis and risk assessment, a confident bet on one’s own insight. Currently, such heavy positioning leans more toward spot holdings. Futures are used only in two cases: capturing short-term liquidity gaps, or long-term positioning with low leverage (under 3x) in macro cycles.
Massive wealth seems not to have altered his lifestyle. He shares that his daily life remains largely unchanged—he constantly reminds himself not to become complacent or engage in irrational spending. He still cares about the “quality” of how he spends money, values cost-effectiveness, and will take home leftovers even if dining alone. This restraint over material desires and grounded attitude toward life may well be the mental foundation that enables him to survive bull and bear markets alike and preserve his profits.
Faced with countless followers, he refuses the seemingly easiest monetization method—signal copying ("leading trades"). He believes "giving a man a fish is not as good as teaching him to fish." Signal-following resembles fund management—it doesn’t replicate true trading ability nor adapt to individual risk tolerances or personalities. Instead, he prefers sharing his analytical methods, thought processes, and failure experiences, hoping to help others build their own systems and seize their own opportunities.
"My personal experience definitely cannot be copied," he acknowledges clearly. "But I can share my insights, patterns, and how to capture opportunities—these are things I believe can help others catch their own chances in the future."
Toward the end of the interview, he delivered his most crucial and weightiest warning. He receives many private messages from leveraged traders in debt—and he strongly advises against leveraged trading.
"Once you’re in debt, your risk tolerance becomes extremely low, yet the risks you face are extremely high." Debt severely distorts trading psychology, robbing you of patience to wait for opportunities, ultimately leading to collapse during normal market fluctuations.
He believes making money—especially in trading—is fundamentally a process of waiting for opportunities. Patience is the highest virtue.
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"As Buffett said, nobody wants to get rich slowly. So you have to go against human nature, be willing to let time make you wealthy. Slow wealth wins." |
This philosophical statement is not only his summary of his trading journey but also the ultimate reminder for all market participants. In this infinite game of battling greed, fear, and human weaknesses, victory ultimately belongs to those who can befriend time—the practitioners of patience.
Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only. It represents the author’s views and not necessarily those of OKX. The article does not constitute (i) investment advice or recommendation; (ii) an offer or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold digital assets; or (iii) financial, accounting, legal, or tax advice. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of the information provided. Holding digital assets (including stablecoins and NFTs) involves high risk and may experience significant volatility. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital assets is suitable for you based on your financial situation. For your specific circumstances, please consult your legal/tax/investment professional. You are solely responsible for understanding and complying with applicable local laws and regulations.
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