SkyBridge founder: Crypto voters could cost Harris the U.S. election
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SkyBridge founder: Crypto voters could cost Harris the U.S. election
Why Trump's victory in the U.S. election won't benefit the crypto industry?
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsCompiled & Translated: TechFlow
Guest: Anthony Scaramucci, Founder of SkyBridge
Host: Giovanni Pigni, Video Reporter at Cointelegraph
Podcast Source: Cointelegraph
Original Title: Will the U.S. Elections Trigger the Next Crypto Bull Run?
Air Date: August 20, 2024
Background Information
In this episode, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci explains why a Trump victory in the U.S. election would not benefit the crypto industry, and how Kamala Harris risks losing her chances by ignoring pro-crypto voters.
Who Is the Better Candidate for Crypto Markets: Trump or Harris?
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Anthony stated that although he is critical of Trump, the industry broadly views Trump as the better candidate from a crypto standpoint.
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However, Anthony pointed out that the industry has overlooked many important considerations in making this choice.
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He further analyzed Trump’s policy intentions, arguing that Trump wants to transform America's system—undermining judicial and legislative branches while strengthening executive power—which could lead to an oligarchic regime. He warned that such changes might weaken capital markets and America’s global standing. While Trump may introduce favorable crypto policies, they could come alongside massive global instability.
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In contrast, Anthony believes the Biden administration has performed well economically. Although dissatisfied with its anti-crypto stance, he still appreciates its respect for legal norms. He noted that with Bitcoin entering the realm of officially approved ETFs, if Harris wins, significant progress on crypto regulation could follow.
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Finally, Anthony emphasized that he believes Bitcoin will perform well under Harris’s leadership—and the world will be better off—so he has decided to support Harris.
Is Harris’s Outreach to the Crypto Industry Seen as a “Scam”?
The host mentioned that many in the crypto industry remain skeptical about the Democratic Party’s shift in crypto policy. He noted that on August 9, the Federal Reserve cracked down on a few U.S. banks supportive of cryptocurrency. Tyler Winklevoss commented that the so-called “crypto reset” attempted by Democrats is actually a scam, implying that a Harris presidency would continue hostile policies toward crypto.
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Anthony said he agrees with Tyler on this point. He admitted it frustrates him but stressed that he isn’t a single-issue voter—he cares more about broader consequences. He pointed out that despite the Biden administration’s tough stance, the crypto industry has still thrived. He highlighted his own efforts in pushing for positive regulatory reforms and ending practices like “Operation Choke Point 2.0.”
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Anthony told listeners that Tyler’s perspective makes sense, and he can understand why someone might vote for Trump—but he personally won’t support Trump because he understands the dangers involved. He hopes to foster bipartisan cooperation on crypto concepts and regulations, believing such collaboration would be far more beneficial for industry growth. He firmly maintains that this two-party cooperation is essential.
Do You Believe in Trump’s Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Plan?
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Anthony affirmed that if Trump truly implements this plan, it would be an excellent idea. He praised the smart people advising Trump, such as David Bailey. He mentioned having listened to Trump’s speech at the Bitcoin conference, which he found quite impressive.
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Anthony envisioned that if the U.S. were to acquire one to three million Bitcoins and list them as strategic assets on the national balance sheet, it would be an incredibly wise move. He emphasized that if each Bitcoin reaches a value of hundreds of thousands of dollars, just imagine the potential impact and significance of such a strategy.
Can Crypto Voters Influence the U.S. Election?
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Anthony further analyzed that if Vice President Harris loses the election, post-election analysis might reveal that her stance on crypto was a key reason—because she underestimated the number of Americans holding cryptocurrencies. He noted that around 50 million Americans own crypto, many of whom could be single-issue voters.
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He proposed a scenario: even if only 25 million Americans hold crypto, and just 5% of them are single-issue voters, that still amounts to 1.25 million potentially decisive votes in swing states. If these voters turn out in pivotal states, Harris could lose the election. Anthony stressed that the Democratic Party’s negative approach toward crypto sends a clear signal. He is actively trying to get Harris supporters to listen to the crypto community in hopes of shifting her policy direction—but remains uncertain whether she’ll be willing to do so.
Will the U.S. Election Trigger the Next Crypto Bull Market?
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Anthony responded by first reviewing Bitcoin’s development trajectory. He noted that for the first time since Bitcoin’s inception, it reached an all-time high before the halving event. Additionally, this cycle introduced ETFs (exchange-traded funds) prior to the halving. After the halving, daily Bitcoin issuance dropped from 900 to 450 coins, creating selling pressure. He also mentioned the Mt. Gox bankruptcy, during which approximately $9 billion worth of Bitcoin was sold off within a short period.
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Despite these headwinds, he observed that Bitcoin continues to trade near $60,000, indicating strong market health. He predicted that within three months, Bitcoin could reach $100,000. He explained that selling pressures from Mt. Gox and government liquidations (such as those from Germany) have largely subsided, and combined with positive market reactions to ETFs, these factors are major drivers behind the expected price surge.
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Anthony concluded that while the election could act as a catalyst, he believes the real driver is the current lack of sellers in the market—especially after the Mt. Gox and government sell-offs—which will be the key force pushing Bitcoin prices higher.
Which Crypto Projects Are You Currently Bullish On?
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Anthony shared his views on several projects and mentioned the following holdings:
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Bitcoin – As the leader in crypto, Anthony remains highly optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.
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Ethereum – As a smart contract platform, Ethereum holds a central position in decentralized applications (dApps) and DeFi (decentralized finance).
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Solana – Anthony expressed investment in Solana, likely due to its high performance and low transaction fees.
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Algorand – He also holds Algorand, possibly valuing its technology and application potential.
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Avalanche – Anthony has great respect for the Avalanche team and holds a substantial position.
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Vulgar Forge – A gaming token in which Anthony holds a small position.
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He summarized that his primary investments are concentrated in Bitcoin and Solana, indicating that he sees significant potential and value in these projects.
When Can We Expect the U.S. to Approve a Solana Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF)?
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Anthony analyzed the possibility of Solana becoming the next approved ETF, with the following key points:
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SEC’s Position: Anthony noted that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) classifies Solana as a security, complicating its inclusion in an ETF. In the U.S., a single security cannot be directly included in an ETF, though multiple securities can be bundled together.
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The Ethereum Precedent: He questioned: if Ethereum is recognized as a non-security, why is Solana treated as one? This inconsistency confuses the industry and highlights the regulator’s double standards.
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Future Regulatory Shifts: Anthony believes that as the U.S. election unfolds, current SEC regulators may be replaced by more industry-friendly officials, facilitating the approval of a Solana ETF. If Trump wins, he thinks there’s a strong chance a Solana ETF could be approved in Q1 next year.
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Long-Term Outlook: Even if Trump loses, Anthony still believes a Solana ETF could be approved by the end of 2025, as he expects the industry to prevail legally against what he views as unfair regulatory actions.
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Overall, Anthony remains optimistic about the future of a Solana ETF, though he acknowledges the exact timing remains uncertain and subject to political and regulatory developments.
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