The Darkest Hour of Crypto: Real Vision Founder Advises Holding Firm and Boldly Buying the Dip
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The Darkest Hour of Crypto: Real Vision Founder Advises Holding Firm and Boldly Buying the Dip
Say it again: Boldly buy the bottom!
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy Raoul Pal, Founder of Real Vision
Translated by Luffy, Foresight News
Markets today are bleak—hopeless, even. It feels as though everything has ended. You’ve missed your chance—and once again, you’ve messed it all up.
Everyone is consumed by anger and confusion. Even those who foresaw this downturn feel a fleeting sense of vindication—but they also recognize the immense pain this market has inflicted on countless people. Right now, it truly feels like the darkest hour.
I’ve been trading for 38 years and have witnessed countless crashes and bouts of market panic—each time feeling just as awful as the last.
I entered the crypto market in 2013, buying Bitcoin for the first time at $200.
After my purchase, Bitcoin briefly rallied—then plunged 75%. And this happened *during* a bull market! Eventually, the price surged to over 10x my entry point. I held through it all because it was a long-term investment—and because I understood the risks involved.
Then came the 2014 bear market, during which Bitcoin crashed another 87%.
In the subsequent bull run lasting until 2017, I endured three brutal drawdowns of 35%–45%. Ultimately, amid the Bitcoin fork controversy, I sold out entirely at $2,000—the same level as Bitcoin’s prior high back in 2013.
At that point, my position had already multiplied 10x from my original entry price. Yet shortly after I exited, Bitcoin soared another 10x by year-end—an unbelievable surge! Then came yet another long, grueling bear market.
I perfectly avoided that entire bear market—and at the time, I even patted myself on the back for it.
Then, during the pandemic-induced crash, I re-entered Bitcoin at $6,500—a price 3.5x higher than my exit point. I thought I’d made the “right” decision—but it turned out to be an extremely costly mistake.
From April to July 2021, Bitcoin dropped 50%. Market sentiment then mirrored today’s almost exactly—Twitter was awash with despair, truly at rock bottom. Yet even then, the degree of oversold conditions fell far short of what we’re seeing today.
By November 2021, markets had rebounded to new all-time highs: SOL surged 13x from its lows; Ethereum doubled; Bitcoin hit a new ATH, rising 150%.
I lived through all of it. In this extended bull market, I never missed a single heart-stopping, gut-wrenching moment.
My initial entry was at $200. Today, Bitcoin trades at $65,000. Even after missing a 3.5x gain due to poor timing, my overall returns remain highly attractive.
For me, the first core lesson when holding a long-term bull asset is to do nothing. The mantra “HODL” didn’t become a crypto classic by accident—it carries far more weight than the so-called “four-year cycle.”
The second lesson is to aggressively add to your position during market crashes. Even if your timing isn’t perfect, systematically scaling into weakness—adding incrementally during downtrends—can compound your returns over time, often outperforming dollar-cost averaging.
I don’t always have enough cash to go all-in during crashes—but I always buy something, because doing so sharpens my mindset.
During crashes, people inevitably believe they’ve missed the final opportunity—that recovery is impossible, that everything will collapse irreversibly and never recover. But reality tells a different story.
Ask yourself two questions: Will tomorrow’s world be more digital than today’s? Will fiat currencies hold less value tomorrow than they do today?
If both answers are yes—keep going. Buy boldly. Let time—not timing—win. Because time always wins. Adding during steep declines lowers your average cost basis—and that makes all the difference.
Stress, fear, and self-doubt are inevitable costs of this journey.
Position sizing must align with your personal risk tolerance. Don’t panic—everyone feels the same way: too heavily exposed on the way down, too lightly positioned on the way up. Your job is simply to learn how to manage these emotions and find your own rhythm.
Another critical principle: Never blindly follow others’ opinions. “DYOR (Do Your Own Research)” is no cliché—it’s essential wisdom. Without independent judgment, you simply won’t survive these darkest hours.
Cultivate unshakable conviction rooted in your own analysis. Blindly following others is like adding leverage—you’ll lose everything.
Remember: When you’re busy blaming others, you’re really just blaming yourself.
Yes, markets are dark right now—but sunlight will return soon. This crash will merely become another scar on your investing journey—provided you haven’t used leverage! Leverage wipes out your capital entirely, like losing every chip at the casino. Never lose your chips.
When will this gloom lift? I don’t know. But I believe this resembles the April–November 2021 pattern: a panic-driven dip within a bull market—and I’m confident it will end quickly. Even if I’m wrong, I won’t change my strategy: As long as I have cash, I’ll keep buying.
But your situation may differ. Consider building an “anti-regret portfolio”: Can you withstand another 50% drop from current levels? If not, reduce your position—even if doing so feels foolish right now. Maintaining the right mindset is key to surviving winter. My mindset is: “How can I buy more?” Yours might be exactly the opposite.
There will always be some market-timers who nail the top—or even short the market successfully. There always will be. But honestly, all you need to tell yourself is: “A crash could happen anytime.” When it does, you won’t panic—because you expected it. Let crashes become part of your investment story—not the whole story.
So what am I doing now?
I’m beginning to buy more digital art (which effectively means accumulating more Ethereum) and plan to continue adding to my crypto positions next week—just as I’ve done every time such a buying opportunity arose before.
I bought during the pandemic crash. I bought during the 2021 crash. I bought during 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025—and I’ll buy again this time, too. Each time, my account’s P&L hits new highs ahead of the broader market. This method has never failed me. Once more: Buy boldly!
Wishing you all good luck—the path of investing is never easy.
To hold assets capable of delivering long-term compounding returns, you must accept their high volatility—it’s a necessary cost. Learn to embrace volatility.
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