With the European Championship approaching, which tokens are worth paying close attention to?
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With the European Championship approaching, which tokens are worth paying close attention to?
We are about 30 days away from Euro 2024.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthors: OUROBOROS CAPITAL, 0XRAMEN, MLZE, AERON
Translation: TechFlow
The UEFA Euro 2024 will take place from June to July. Given that the UEFA Euro 2020 (postponed to 2021 due to the pandemic) attracted over 5.2 billion viewers, we believe this will increase attention on sports-related tokens and GambleFi. For RLB, this is a significant revenue event—sports betting currently accounts for 30–40% of its revenue, and we expect this proportion could exceed half. As for CHZ, we have observed strong historical performance around such sporting events, typically peaking about 20 days before kickoff. Additionally, narratives around fan tokens are beginning to form, further boosted by Dragon8 chain upgrades (smart contracts + dApps) and partnerships (e.g., Azuro).
Rollbit: Euro 2024 Means More Revenue
Revenue Growth Since Buyback and Burn Launch: $50 Million Monthly
Since initiating buybacks and burns (the starting point of available data), Rollbit’s revenue has steadily increased—from approximately $40 million per month in August 2023 to $50 million per month in April 2024. A significant portion of this growth comes from its sports betting segment, which accounted for 30–40% of revenue in April 2024, up from 15–20% in August 2023.
Source: Rollshare
Buyback Concerns
Current revenue levels translate into $5.5 million in monthly buybacks, equivalent to an annualized 33% of circulating RLB being repurchased. This implies a price-to-earnings ratio of just 3x. To date, approximately 47% of circulating RLB has been bought back. Despite this, price action remains weak, underperforming ETH by 55% since the beginning of the year.
The combination of aggressive buybacks and lackluster price performance makes it easy to understand why the market continues to question the authenticity of the buyback program. Given that RLB’s primary trading venue is Rollbit itself—and lacks transparency—it is difficult to verify whether repurchased tokens are actually being removed from circulation.
Nevertheless, we believe there is a price floor. At current revenue levels, it would take slightly over three years to fully repurchase Rollbit’s entire supply. The quantity of buybacks is a function of both revenue and price.
The more RLB that is bought back, the scarcer it becomes, the more concentrated holdings become, and the fewer sellers remain. While we are surprised by the volume of coins held by historical sellers, we believe that as the “low RLB price / high buyback” scenario persists, token holders will increasingly pressure the team for greater transparency—an outcome that historically has led to positive price movements.
Revenue Boost From Euro 2024
The UEFA Euro 2020 attracted over 5.2 billion global viewers. We expect Euro 2024 to generate similar engagement, driving increased revenue for Rollbit and enabling larger buybacks during the summer months (June–July 2024).
Source: Rollshare
Rollbit’s revenue is highly volatile, with strong days generating 2–3 times the revenue of weaker ones—driven primarily by sports betting. With matches occurring nearly every day, we expect overall revenue to rise, fueling additional buybacks.
Underexposed and Watching Closely
GambleFi remains underexposed, making it well-suited as a catalyst-driven long-term investment. We view Euro 2024 as exactly such a catalyst, likely to bring increased attention and direct buyback flows toward the token.
Chiliz: Euro 2024 + Chain Upgrade
During the 2022 FIFA World Cup in November, CHZ was the only token with narrative alignment, delivering nearly +80% returns when longed about 20 days before the tournament began. We are now approximately 30 days away from Euro 2024.
Source: Coingecko, Ouroboros Research
While we believe Chiliz stands to benefit from the Euro 2024 narrative, it also has additional catalysts, including:
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Dragon8 Chain Upgrade: Chiliz’s Dragon8 upgrade launches on May 21, 2024, introducing an EIP-1559 fee-burning mechanism and a new tokenomics model, with initial inflation at 8.8%, projected to decline to 1.88% after 14 years. In our conversation with Chiliz CEO Alex Dreyfus, we learned that more dApps will launch on Chiliz 2.0 following the upgrade.
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Azuro Partnership: Chiliz announced a collaboration with Azuro to jointly sponsor a developer grant program aimed at building on-chain sports prediction markets.
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