Overview of recent catalysts that could potentially impact $HYPE price
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Overview of recent catalysts that could potentially impact $HYPE price
DAT, TGE, unlock, buyback, ETF, revenue growth, protocol upgrade.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Mercury
Translation: TechFlow
As of late October 2025, Hyperliquid's native token $HYPE is at a critical juncture of dynamic development, with Hyperliquid poised for significant advancements. As a leader in decentralized perpetual contract exchanges, Hyperliquid has captured a substantial share of DEX derivatives trading volume—approximately 70-80%—and has generated over $1 billion in revenue to date. Driven by ongoing ecosystem expansion and a one-way buyback mechanism, multiple catalysts over the coming months could propel the price of $HYPE even higher. The following explores these key events, extending from now through 2026, based on recent analysis and market insights.
DAT Launch in November
One of the most immediate catalysts is the anticipated launch of the third DAT in November 2025. This event is expected to raise hundreds of millions of dollars dedicated to purchasing and staking $HYPE. Specifically, this includes a time-weighted average price (TWAP) buy of $305 million from Hyperliquid Strategies Inc. following its final close, along with sustained monthly purchases averaging $100 million from the relief fund, supported by strong revenue trends. In total, approximately $405 million worth of $HYPE could be removed from circulation in November alone.
HyperEVM TGE Season
Advancements in Hyperliquid’s Layer-1 technology are accelerating Token Generation Events (TGEs) on HyperEVM, with multiple projects nearing launch. Notable projects include: @kinetiq_xyz, @hyperlendx, @felixprotocol, @HypurrFi, @drip__trade, and @prjx_hl. As these TGEs roll out, users may reinvest some of their airdropped tokens back into $HYPE, enhancing liquidity and demand within the ecosystem. This shift will extend into the end of Q4 2025 and beyond, marking Hyperliquid’s transformation into a comprehensive DeFi hub comparable to Solana and Ethereum.
Suppressed Price Performance
Recently, @Techno_Revenant was identified as significantly suppressing the price of $HYPE through large-scale selling, as noted by @mlmabc in his post: once selling pressure from this entity subsides, combined with ongoing TWAP buys and overall demand at current price levels, we expect a marked improvement in short-term price performance.
Token Unlocks and Supply Dynamics
Starting November 29, 2025, a total of 237.8 million $HYPE tokens—valued at approximately $11.9 billion at current prices—will begin unlocking over the next 24 months. This presents significant supply pressure, raising concerns among investors and analysts. Analysts including Maelstrom view this as the token’s “first real test,” fearing unlock allocations could trigger sell-offs, dilute the market, and exert downward price pressure amid broader macroeconomic uncertainty. However, if the team decides to continue holding these unlocked tokens—or better yet, stake them—the entire oversupply scenario could vanish instantly.
Relief Fund and Buybacks
The relief fund continues to play a crucial role, having raised over $1 billion in $HYPE so far. We can only assume that platform revenues will continue to rise relative to other perpetual DEX competitors, even without an incentive program. At this rate, the relief fund could repurchase the entire circulating supply of $HYPE in under 10 years.
Understanding Hyperliquid’s SWPE
As of mid-October 2025, the supply-weighted price-to-earnings (SWPE) ratio for Hyperliquid’s $HYPE token has fallen to around 2.25–2.50, hitting a year-to-date low and suggesting the token may be undervalued relative to the protocol’s strong earnings. SWPE is a key metric in crypto analysis for tokens like $HYPE, modifying the traditional P/E ratio by weighting it against effective or floating supply—the amount of circulating tokens available for trading, excluding locked or staked amounts. Essentially, SWPE measures how “cheap” a token is by dividing the float-adjusted market cap by the protocol’s annualized revenue. A low SWPE indicates the token price has not kept pace with earnings growth, presenting an attractive entry point for value-oriented investors. Credit to @skewga_hyper for the data.
ETF and Index Inclusion
$HYPE is preparing for potential ETF launches and inclusion in new S&P cryptocurrency index funds, which would appeal to traditional value/growth investors. The ARKK fund, led by Cathie Wood, may gain exposure via DAT investments.
Summary
In summary, $HYPE stands at a pivotal moment. Hyperliquid continues to dominate the decentralized perpetuals space, backed by strong revenue performance and innovative expansions such as HIP-3 and USDH. While upcoming token unlocks pose notable risks and warrant investor caution, robust buyback mechanisms and the potential to re-stake unlocked tokens could transform these challenges into opportunities for sustained growth and confidence. Combined with the prospects of ETFs and DATs, rising revenues, and long-term protocol upgrades, $HYPE’s trajectory suggests the potential for substantial returns for investors who can wisely navigate volatility. As always, investors should closely monitor execution and market dynamics. This article does not constitute investment advice.
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