Trump's Tariff Policy 2.0 - Crypto Breaks All-Time High | Hotcoin Research Market Insights: July 7-11, 2025
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Trump's Tariff Policy 2.0 - Crypto Breaks All-Time High | Hotcoin Research Market Insights: July 7-11, 2025
Crypto Market Weekly Report: Bitcoin Hits Record High of $118,003 as U.S. "Crypto Week" to Review Three Major Bills
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsCryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total cryptocurrency market cap stands at $3.68 trillion, with BTC accounting for 63.9% ($2.35 trillion). Stablecoin market cap is $257 billion, up 0.83% over the past 7 days, with USDT representing 62.25%. Circle (USDC) has applied for a U.S. national trust bank charter to strengthen compliance.
Trump Family USD1 trading volume hit a record high, reaching $1.25 billion in 24-hour volume, ranking third after USDT and USDC.
This week, BTC prices showed volatile upward movement, currently at $118,003; ETH also rose with volatility, now priced at $3,011.
|
BTC Key Price Milestones (July 7–11) |
||
|---|---|---|
|
Date |
Price |
Key Drivers |
|
July 7 |
107,945 |
Trump's tariff policy triggered market volatility |
|
July 10 |
112,000 |
Risk-off capital inflows from Brazil |
|
July 11 |
118,000 (new high) |
ETF inflows + short covering |
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most are up while a minority declined: BONK rose 37.59% over 7 days, SPX gained 32.7%, PENGU increased by 32%, MGO surged 56%, and 1INCH climbed 42%.
This week, net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs amounted to $2.7143 billion; net inflows into U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs reached $907.8 million.
Market Outlook:
Stablecoins continued to expand this week, with significant net inflows into both U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Both BTC and ETH showed volatile upward trends. The RSI index stands at 62.87, indicating strength. The Fear & Greed Index is at 72 (higher than last week), unchanged for two consecutive days, reflecting optimism without reaching extreme levels.
The U.S. introduced Tariff 2.0 this week, imposing 20–50% tariffs on multiple countries, but the impact on crypto markets was minimal. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is 72.3%, though no action is expected in July.
Focus should be on the U.S. "Crypto Week" from July 14–18, during which three major bills—GENIUS and CLARITY among them—will be reviewed. If passed, BTC could challenge $120,000. Conversely, increased regulatory uncertainty might trigger a pullback to the $108,000–$110,000 support zone.
Understanding the Present
Weekly Major Events Recap
1. Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $118,000, triggering $318 million in short liquidations;
2. Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazil (effective August 1), prompting risk-off capital flows into BTC;
3. U.S. "Crypto Week" scheduled for July 14–18 will review three key bills including GENIUS and CLARITY;
4. Spot BTC ETF recorded $203 million in single-day net inflows, with BlackRock’s holdings surpassing $78 billion;
5. ETH ETF inflows hit a quarterly high, with Fundstrat raising $250 million to increase ETH exposure;
6. GMX suffered a hack resulting in $42 million losses, with the team offering a 10% bounty for fund recovery;
7. XBIT decentralized exchange saw a 300% surge in trading volume, emerging as a new避险 choice amid tariff tensions;
8. FOMC June minutes revealed internal divisions, cooling down rate cut expectations;
9. Hong Kong listed data for 85 core stocks on-chain via Pyth Network, advancing RWA development;
10. Trump family's crypto ventures have generated over $600 million in profits, sparking debate over policy-commercial conflicts of interest.
Macroeconomic Overview
United States
1. Fiscal Policy: “Beautiful America Act” (tax cuts + infrastructure) passed the House, potentially fueling long-term inflation;
2. Monetary Policy: 72.3% chance of a September rate cut, but no move expected in July.
Europe & Asia
|
Region |
Policy Move |
Market Impact |
|
Eurozone |
ECB holds rates steady, hints at delayed easing |
Euro under pressure |
|
Japan |
Maintains ultra-loose policy |
Yen depreciation accelerates |
|
China |
Potential reserve requirement ratio cut of 0.5% in H2 |
Improved liquidity outlook |
ETF
Data shows that between July 7 and July 11, net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs totaled $2.7143 billion. As of July 11, GBTC (Grayscale) has seen cumulative outflows of $23.338 billion, currently holding $21.724 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) holds $83.085 billion. The total market cap of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs is $150.643 billion.
Net inflows into U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs: $907.8 million.
Looking Ahead
Event Calendar
1. Polkadot Web3 Summit 2025 will take place in Berlin from July 16–18;
2. Bitcoin Asia 2025 will be held at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Center on August 28–29;
3. WebX Asia 2025 will take place in Tokyo, Japan, from August 25–26, 2025;
4. TOKEN2049 Singapore 2025 will be held in Singapore on October 1–2, 2025.
Project Updates
1. Trial of Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm begins July 14; prosecutors dropped some charges but will proceed with money laundering, unlicensed money transmission, and violations of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act;
2. The U.S. Congress will begin voting on three major crypto-related bills starting July 14: the GENIUS Act, the CLARITY Act, and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act;
3. Wormhole staking program Phase 1 rewards must be claimed by July 15; any unclaimed rewards will revert to the SRP pool for future distribution;
4. Sonic Labs will randomly open Phase 1 claims for S token airdrop between July 15–22;
5. Tuttle submitted an amendment to change the effective date of a batch of 2x leveraged crypto ETFs to July 16. This does not guarantee launch, but effective dates typically mark ETF launches, and given SSK’s successful listing, others may follow.
Key Events
1. July 15 at 20:30 ET: U.S. releases June unadjusted CPI year-on-year, impacting Fed policy expectations;
2. July 17 at 02:00: Federal Reserve releases Beige Book on economic conditions.
Token Unlocks
1. Starknet (STRK): 127 million tokens unlocked on July 15 (~$18.54M), 3.53% of circulating supply;
2. Sei (SEI): 55.56 million tokens unlocked on July 15 (~$17.87M), 1% of circulating supply;
3. Arbitrum (ARB): 92.65 million tokens unlocked on July 16 (~$38.51M), 1.87% of circulating supply;
4. ZKsync (ZK): 173 million tokens unlocked on July 17 (~$10.12M), 2.42% of circulating supply;
5. ApeCoin (APE): 15.58 million tokens unlocked on July 17 (~$10.46M), 1.95% of circulating supply;
6. Fasttoken (FTN): 20 million tokens unlocked on July 18 (~$89M), 4.64% of circulating supply;
7. OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP): 906 million tokens unlocked on July 18 (~$913M), 9% of circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research hub within the Hotcoin ecosystem, is dedicated to providing global digital asset investors with professional, in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights. We offer a three-pillar service framework combining "trend analysis, value discovery, and real-time tracking." Through deep dives into industry trends, multidimensional evaluation of promising projects, and round-the-clock market monitoring, complemented by our bi-weekly strategy livestreams "Top Coin Selection" and daily news digest "Blockchain Today," we deliver precise market interpretations and actionable strategies for investors at all levels. Leveraging cutting-edge data analytics models and extensive industry networks, we empower novice investors to build foundational knowledge and help institutional clients capture alpha, jointly seizing value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.
Risk Disclaimer
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and inherently risky. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and conduct investments strictly within a sound risk management framework to ensure capital safety.
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