Israel-Iran conflict drives gold prices up, crypto likely to decline | Hotcoin Research Market Insights: June 9-13, 2025
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Israel-Iran conflict drives gold prices up, crypto likely to decline | Hotcoin Research Market Insights: June 9-13, 2025
Hotcoin Research is dedicated to providing global cryptocurrency investors with professional, in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Hotcoin Research
Cryptocurrency Market Performance
The current total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.34 trillion, with BTC accounting for 61.55% ($2.06 trillion).Stablecoin market cap stands at $251.5 billion, up 0.63% over the past seven days, with USDT representing 62.14%.
This week, BTC has shown range-bound price action, currently trading at $105,300; ETH has also been range-bound, now at $2,551.
CoinMarketCap's top 200 projects show a minority gaining while most declined this week. Notable gainers include: KAIA (+45.16% in 7 days), AERO (+45.15%), AB (+43.15%), and RVN (+43.63%).
This week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $1.3703 billion; U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $527.6 million.
On June 14, the "Fear & Greed Index" stood at 52 (higher than last week), reflecting neutral sentiment for four days and greedy for three days this week.
Market Outlook:
This week witnessed continued stablecoin issuance, significant net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, and positive flows into spot Ethereum ETFs. Both BTC and ETH remain range-bound. The RSI index is at 39.65, indicating weakness, while the Altcoin Season Index is at 24. U.S. May CPI and PPI data released this week met market expectations, with no visible inflationary impact from tariffs so far. The Fear & Greed Index remains between neutral and greedy.
The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June is only 2.2%, with cuts expected to begin in Q3 of this year. Markets have already priced in a hold for June, so next week’s rate decision announcement will likely have minimal impact. BTC is expected to trade between $102,000 and $107,000 next week. Currently, tensions between Israel and Iran are escalating, which may cause short-term market declines. However, in the long term, the bull market is preparing for its final surge. If the U.S. stablecoin bill passes in August and the Fed cuts rates in September, a significant rally could follow. For now, accumulating positions on dips is recommended.
Understanding the Present
Weekly Recap
1. On June 9, according to crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett, an alternative amendment to the U.S. Digital Asset Market Structure Clarification and Regulatory Transparency for Innovation Act (CLARITY Act) was released. This revised version includes recent amendments and additions and will serve as the basis for Republican deliberations in the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday;
2. On June 9, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas reported that BlackRock's IBIT ETF reached $70 billion in assets under management, achieving this milestone in just 341 days—five times faster than GLD’s previous record of 1,691 days;
3. On June 10, the Ethereum Foundation announced the release of the first report for its "Trillion Dollar Security" (1TS) initiative, launched last month to enhance Ethereum’s ecosystem-wide security and outline existing challenges;
4. On June 11, meme project Slerf hinted via an official tweet featuring a product screenshot that it may launch a token launchpad called Slerrrfpad;
5. On June 12, the U.S. Senate passed a procedural vote on the GENIUS Stablecoin Act (Guiding Establishments and National Innovation for Understanding Stablecoins Act) by 68 to 30, paving the way for full chamber debate and a final Senate vote. If approved, it will move to the House for further consideration;
6. On June 11, Bloomberg reported that payment company Stripe agreed to acquire crypto wallet provider Privy, building on its recent purchase of stablecoin infrastructure firm Bridge. Terms were not disclosed. Privy enables companies to integrate crypto wallets into user experiences and has provided technical support to platforms like OpenSea;
7. On June 11, Sonic Labs announced the second season of S token airdrops starting June 18;
8. On June 13, Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that following Israel’s attack on Iran, missile and drone strikes targeting Israel and its civilians are expected in the near future;
9. On June 13, Coinbase announced the launch of perpetual contracts in the U.S.;
10. On June 12, The Information reported that a little-known but central player in the U.S. financial system is exploring issuing a stablecoin, potentially accelerating digital asset adoption across markets. The company is the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), which handles clearing for U.S. stock trades;
11. On June 13, Bitcoin Magazine reported that Japanese mobile gaming studio Gumi purchased $6.96 million (1 billion JPY) worth of Bitcoin.
Macroeconomic Developments
1. On June 12, Canadian listed company Matador acquired an additional 5.38 BTC. After this purchase, Matador Technologies holds approximately 69 BTC (including BTC-equivalent assets);
2. On June 13, Japanese listed company Remixpoint officially announced the purchase of an additional 56.87 BTC (~$5.915 million / 887 million JPY), averaging about $104,000 per BTC. This brings their total holdings to 1,038.27 BTC, surpassing the 1,000 BTC milestone;
3. On June 11, Trump stated on Truth social media platform that a deal with China is nearing completion: China will supply rare earths; the U.S. will offer terms including student admissions; U.S. tariffs set at 55%, Chinese tariffs at 10%;
4. On June 11, U.S. May unadjusted CPI YoY came in at 2.4% (vs. 2.5% expected). Unadjusted MoM CPI rose 0.1% (vs. 0.2% expected). Core CPI MoM increased 0.1% (vs. 0.3% expected). Unadjusted core CPI YoY was 2.8% (vs. 2.9% expected);
5. On June 12, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7 reached 248,000 (expected: 240,000);
6. As of May 31, CME's "FedWatch" tool shows a 2.2% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in June, with a 97.8% chance of rates being held steady.
ETFs
From June 9 to June 13,U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $1.3703 billion. As of June 13, GBTC (Grayscale) has seen cumulative outflows of $23.193 billion, currently holding $19.468 billion in assets, while IBIT (BlackRock) holds $70.132 billion.
Total market cap of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs: $129.738 billion.
U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows of $527.6 million.
Anticipating the Future
Event Calendar
1. NFT NYC 2026 will be held in New York, USA, from June 23–25, 2025;
2. Permissionless IV will take place in New York, USA, from June 24–26, 2025;
3. EthCC 8 will be held in Cannes, France, from June 30 to July 3, 2025;
4. IVS2025 KYOTO will occur in Kyoto, Japan, from July 2–4, 2025.
Project Updates
1. ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) will undergo a 3-for-1 stock split on June 16 to make the fund more accessible to investors. The issuer noted that the split won't affect ARKB’s net asset value, ticker symbol, or investment strategy, and shares will continue trading under the same CUSIP;
2. Decentralized social protocol Farcaster plans to roll out three professional subscription benefits during the week of June 16: content posts up to 10,000 characters, four embed features (images, videos, URLs, CA, and mini-apps), and a new profile banner image function;
3. Lido has gradually shut down staking services on Polygon. The transition period ran from December 16, 2024, to June 16, 2025. As of June 16, frontend support ends, and withdrawals can only be made via browser tools;
4. Nansen Points Season 1 will launch on June 17. Users’ current actions on Nansen—including staking, subscriptions, and referrals—will count toward daily point balances.
Key Events
1. To commemorate the 250th anniversary of the U.S. Army, the United States will host a large-scale military parade and celebration in Washington, D.C., on June 14—coinciding with President Donald Trump’s birthday and Flag Day;
2. June 17: Bank of Japan interest rate decision;
3. June 18: U.S. weekly initial jobless claims;
4. June 18: U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision;
5. June 19: UK Bank of England interest rate decision;
6. June 19: Japan releases May core CPI year-on-year data.
Token Unlocks
1. ApeCoin (APE): 1,538 tokens unlocking on June 17 (~$10.53 million, 1.54% of circulating supply);
2. Cronos (CRO): 1.17 billion tokens unlocking on June 17 (~$107 million, 1.17% of circulating supply);
3. Pixels (PIXEL): 89.37 million tokens unlocking on June 19 (~$3.43 million, 1.79% of circulating supply);
4. Polyhedra Network (ZKJ): 15.5 million tokens unlocking on June 19 (~$30.89 million, 1.55% of circulating supply);
5. Zksync (ZK): 759 million tokens unlocking on June 19 (~$39.13 million, 3.62% of circulating supply);
6. Bittensor (TAO): 216,000 tokens unlocking on June 21 (~$81.05 million, 1.03% of circulating supply).
About Us
Hotcoin Research, the core investment research hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, is dedicated to providing global crypto investors with professional analysis and forward-looking insights. We deliver a comprehensive "trend analysis + value discovery + real-time tracking" service framework. Through in-depth trend analysis, multi-dimensional project evaluation, and round-the-clock market monitoring—combined with our twice-weekly strategy livestreams “Top Coins Selection” and daily news digest “Blockchain Today”—we offer precise market interpretation and actionable strategies for investors at all levels. Leveraging advanced data analytics models and extensive industry networks, we empower novice investors to build knowledge frameworks and help institutional clients capture alpha returns, jointly seizing value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.
Risk Disclaimer
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and inherently risky. We strongly advise investors to fully understand these risks and invest strictly within a sound risk management framework to ensure capital safety.
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