Is the bull market poised to take off? Five key metrics reveal the answer
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Is the bull market poised to take off? Five key metrics reveal the answer
Perhaps, after nearly six months of anxious waiting, a new bull market in crypto is ready to take off.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy 1912212.eth, Foresight News
The market isn't as optimistic as many had hoped, but neither is it as bleak as some feared. No one expected that the crypto market's downtrend, starting in March this year, would persist for a full six months. Prices fell so low that some investors resorted to expletives, blaming everyone from exchanges to the heavens themselves. At one point, an ancient OG predicted a grueling 18-month battle ahead; at another, certain whales even declared they were abandoning crypto altogether, urging others to fully invest in China's A-shares.
Will there still be an altseason? Each time the market grows skeptical, it often marks precisely the bottom zone. And history has always answered: Yes, there will be.
History repeats itself remarkably. In 2023, the market similarly quieted down around mid-year before taking off in October. This year follows a similar pattern. Interestingly, some capital appears prescient—seemingly catching the scent early and moving swiftly into position. Thanks to this, by late September, the market had already seen a significant upward surge.
After a brief pullback in early October, the self-fulfilling prophecy of a "rally in October" came true once again. BTC has rebounded from its short-term low near $52,000 to over $68,000—just around $6,000 shy of its all-time high. Meanwhile, previously shunned altcoins have also rallied substantially from their lows, with many gaining two to three times in value.
After half a year of waiting, is the bull market finally here?
Bitcoin Spot ETF Sees Strong and Sustained Inflows
Bitcoin spot ETF data reflects real institutional buying demand from outside the crypto ecosystem. Unlike individual trading activity, these ETFs represent investors willing to pay fees for professional custodianship while acquiring BTC exposure. Historically, periods of strong net inflows tend to coincide with rising Bitcoin prices, while sustained outflows often precede declines.
Since the official launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, total net inflows have reached $20.66 billion. Notably, since October 1st, there have been only 6 days of net outflows versus 7 days of net inflows—and the scale of inflows has been exceptional. On October 14th alone, net inflow exceeded $555 million. Both October 16th and 17th saw inflows surpassing $450 million each day, while October 15th recorded over $370 million.
While the number of inflow and outflow days is roughly balanced, the magnitude differs sharply: inflows are frequently multiple times larger than outflows.
Even Ethereum spot ETFs, which have generally faced lukewarm reception, saw a rare single-day net inflow of $48.41 million in October.
Demand from external capital remains robust.
Stablecoin Market Cap Nears All-Time High
Changes in stablecoin market capitalization reflect the scale of incoming liquidity. Despite market fluctuations over recent years, zooming out reveals a fundamentally optimistic picture.
The total stablecoin market cap peaked at $186.3 billion in mid-2022 before gradually declining, yet remained consistently above $120 billion. Fast forward to October 2023, inflows accelerated once more. The current total stablecoin market cap now exceeds $172.3 billion,
approaching its historical peak.
BTC Unrealized Profit Indicates Majority of Holders Are Now in the Green
The Bitcoin unrealized profit/loss metric measures the on-chain profitability of BTC holders. The color gradient in related charts typically ranges from red (top) through orange, light yellow, gray-white, to light blue (bottom). Blue indicates widespread losses and capitulation, while red signifies that most holders are profitable.
When the line hovers in the blue zone, it usually marks a BTC price bottom, as losing positions exit en masse. When it rises into the yellow or red zones, it often signals a top—where widespread profits prompt large-scale selling, culminating in cycle peaks. This cycle repeats over time.
The current chart shows the market climbing back from lighter zones into the yellow range. According to IntoTheBlock, approximately 95% of BTC addresses are now in profit—a clear sign of recovering market sentiment.
Historically, such levels signal strong bullish momentum, though they may also hint at potential overextension.
Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Continue Accumulating
The long-term holder supply metric tracks the amount of BTC held by addresses that have not moved their coins for at least 155 days.
The chart shows that during previous BTC price peaks, long-term holder balances decreased—smart money tends to exit at tops. After price corrections, accumulation resumes until the next peak, when distribution begins anew. This cyclical behavior is evident throughout.
Since the end of July this year, long-term holders have re-entered aggressive accumulation mode, reflected in the steep upward slope on the right side of the chart. Clearly, these informed investors are betting on stronger future performance.
Notably, according to CryptoQuant, new whale addresses are accumulating BTC at an almost frenzied pace. Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, stated that such hoarding behavior is unprecedented in the BTC market. While some attribute new whales to ETF-driven inflows, recent accumulation patterns show little correlation between these new whale addresses and ETF flows.
Bitcoin Open Interest Hits All-Time High
Today, Coinglass data showed that total open interest in bitcoin futures across all exchanges surpassed $39.7 billion, setting a new record.
Futures open interest reflects market participants’ convictions about future price movements. It typically lags behind spot price action. When optimism becomes overwhelming and leveraged positions pile up, the market becomes vulnerable to corrections that liquidate excessive leverage.
Notably, over the past six months, bitcoin open interest has remained relatively high. This new all-time high breaks the previous ceiling of over $38 billion set earlier this year, signaling markedly elevated investor confidence.
Summary
On the macro front, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates in November and December, channeling global liquidity into risk assets. Cryptocurrencies stand to benefit from improved liquidity conditions. Meanwhile, a series of on-chain metrics indicate a steady recovery and growing capital inflows.
"Markets are born in despair, grow in doubt, mature in optimism, and die in euphoria."
Perhaps, after nearly six long months of waiting, a new bull cycle in crypto is finally ready to ignite.
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