Nearly 90% of central banks worldwide have cut interest rates, with macro data confirming that the crypto bull market is still in its early stages
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Nearly 90% of central banks worldwide have cut interest rates, with macro data confirming that the crypto bull market is still in its early stages
The current economic environment better supports market expansion rather than contraction.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsSource: Cryptoslate
Translation: Blockchain Knight
Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor, said that based on comprehensive economic indicators, the current cryptocurrency bull market is still in its early stages.
In an analysis shared via X on September 8, Bittel challenged the prevailing "peak cycle" sentiment in the crypto market and contested the notion of being in a "late-cycle" phase by examining traditional economic indicators.
Typical late-cycle economies usually exhibit the following characteristics: extremely high manufacturing sentiment (ISM index around 60), elevated service sector sentiment, strong homebuilder confidence, robust consumer and labor confidence, bullish investor sentiment, and accelerating wage growth.
However, Bittel pointed out that current data paints a very different picture. After incorporating indicators from ISM (Institute for Supply Management), NAHB (National Association of Home Builders), NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business), BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics), AAII (American Association of Individual Investors), and The Conference Board into a composite sentiment framework, he found U.S. economic sentiment remains "very moderate," far from the extreme optimism typical of late-cycle phases.
He stated: "The current economy does not display above-trend late-cycle traits, but rather resembles an early-cycle economy attempting to gather momentum."
Central bank policy provides additional support for this view. Nearly 90% of central banks globally are currently cutting interest rates, which Bittel describes as creating an "unconventional" environment that offers "strong impetus for the business cycle" over the long term.
Oil price trends further confirm the "early-cycle" assessment: oil prices are nearly 20% below trend levels and continue to decline. This indicates that financial conditions remain accommodative, rather than tightening as typically seen in late-cycle phases.
Historically, since the early 1970s, oil prices rising 50% above trend levels have often signaled the onset of an economic recession.
Data from the Temporary Help Services sector reveals "early-cycle characteristics": growth in this sector is gradually recovering from extremely low levels, suggesting the economy is in a recovery phase rather than a downturn.
Bittel noted that late-cycle phases typically show "year-over-year growth transitioning from positive to slowing," reflecting an overheated economy losing steam.
He attributed rising unemployment to the lagging nature of employment data, calling it "the past six months reflected in the rearview mirror."
Prior to hiring costly full-time employees with benefits and pensions, companies typically first increase overtime hours and hire temporary workers.
Bittel also defined the current economic environment as a transition "from early-cycle toward mid-cycle," describing this progression as moving from "macro spring" (rising growth, falling inflation) to "macro summer" (rising growth, rising inflation).
He concluded that this macro perspective challenges mainstream sentiment in the current cryptocurrency market, which believes the bull market has already peaked. Instead, current economic conditions support continued market expansion rather than contraction.
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