Rate Cut Uncertainty: Why the Fed's Positive Moves Become a "Roadblock" for Crypto Markets?
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Rate Cut Uncertainty: Why the Fed's Positive Moves Become a "Roadblock" for Crypto Markets?
Observation shows that after the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut on December 11, aside from gold, market reactions were generally muted. This was not due to a single factor, but rather because the market had already fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut prior to the meeting, leading to profit-taking after the positive news was exhausted.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Hotcoin Research
Crypto Market Performance
Currently, the total cryptocurrency market cap stands at $3.13 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.7%, or $1.83 trillion. The stablecoin market cap is $309.1 billion, up 0.49% over the past seven days. Stablecoins have seen positive growth for three consecutive weeks, with USDT representing 60.21% of the total.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most declined while a few rose: BTC dropped 0.14% over 7 days, ETH gained 2.34%, SOL fell 1.52%, M surged 25.79%, and ZEC rose 16.26%.
This week, net inflows into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs amounted to $286.2 million; net inflows into U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs reached $209 million.
Market Outlook (December 15–21):
The current RSI index is 46.17 (neutral range), the Fear & Greed Index is 28 (up from last week, indicating "extreme fear"), and the Altseason Index is 35 (neutral, slightly lower than last week).
Observations show that after the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut on December 11, markets reacted indifferently—except for gold. This muted response stems not from a single factor but reflects the fact that a 25-basis-point rate cut was fully priced in prior to the meeting. With the利好 ("bullish news") already priced in, profit-taking followed. Additionally, Powell's hawkish remarks and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty have weighed on risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Crypto markets are expected to remain range-bound next week.
BTC core range: $86,000–94,200
ETH core range: $3,100–3,400
SOL core range: $125–145
For short-term traders: Avoid chasing prices near key resistance levels (e.g., BTC $94,200, ETH $3,400, SOL $140). Wait for clear breakout confirmation or rejection before entering positions near key support levels (e.g., BTC $86,000, ETH $3,190, SOL $125) with small test positions. Always set tight stop-losses.
For medium-term swing traders: Reduce trading frequency and patiently wait for price to break out of the current “December opening range.” Consider adopting a “staggered positioning” strategy—gradually building small base positions in strong support zones (e.g., SOL at $120–130), using a decisive breakdown below support as a signal to stop-loss or stay sidelined. Meanwhile, closely monitor whether capital flows into U.S. ETFs can remain sustained, as this will be a key indicator of market sentiment.
Understanding the Present
Weekly Major Events Recap
1. On December 7, Matt Huang, co-founder of crypto investment firm Paradigm, posted on social media: "I don’t know who needs to hear this, but we are currently experiencing crypto’s 'Netscape moment' or 'iPhone moment.' Its scale of operation is unprecedented, larger than anything we could have previously imagined, and development is accelerating across both institutional and cypherpunk fronts."
2. On December 10, the CLARITY Act is expected to release its draft this week, with hearings and voting scheduled for next week;
3. On December 10, Bloomberg reported that SpaceX is planning an IPO in the latter half of 2026, with a valuation of around $1.5 trillion and fundraising expected to exceed $30 billion, potentially making it the largest IPO in history. The exact timing will depend on market conditions;
4. On December 9, as year-end approaches, Wall Street banks are preparing for rising pressure in money markets. Analysts suggest this may prompt the Fed to consider measures to rebuild liquidity buffers in this $12.6 trillion market;
5. On December 10, Decrypt reported that SEC Chair Paul Atkins stated at the Blockchain Association's annual policy summit that various types of ICOs should be considered non-security offerings and thus fall outside SEC jurisdiction;
6. On December 12, the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York announced that Terraform Labs founder Do Kwon was sentenced to 15 years in prison for fraud related to the collapse of the Terra and Luna tokens.
Macroeconomic Overview
1. On December 11, the Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive meeting with a rate cut, in line with market expectations. The Fed has cumulatively cut rates by 75 basis points this year;
2. On December 11, initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 6 came in at 236,000, the highest since the week of September 6, 2025. This figure exceeded the expected 220,000 and the previous value of 191,000;
3. On December 12, according to the Fed funds futures tracker, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in January is 24.8%.
ETFs
Data shows that between December 8 and December 12, net inflows into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs totaled $286.2 million. As of December 12, GBTC (Grayscale) has seen cumulative outflows of $25.039 billion, currently holding $15.061 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) holds $70.093 billion. The total market cap of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs stands at $120.07 billion.
Net inflows into U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs: $209 million.
Looking Ahead
Project Updates
1. Yala announced that all native BTC under the institutional model will be withdrawn from the Yala protocol, with the full redemption plan and timeline to be released on December 15;
2. deBridge’s second-season airdrop claim window will close on December 19;
3. PayPal launched a Bitcoin giveaway campaign for U.S. users, running until December 21.
Key Upcoming Events
1. December 16 at 21:30: U.S. November seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll employment (in thousands);
2. December 18 at 20:00: UK Bank Rate decision announcement;
3. December 18 at 21:15: Eurozone European Central Bank deposit facility rate announcement;
4. December 18 at 21:30: U.S. November unadjusted CPI year-on-year and initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13 (in thousands);
5. December 19 at 23:00: U.S. November core PCE price index year-on-year.
Token Unlocks
1. Connex (CONX) will unlock 1.32 million tokens on December 15, worth approximately $21.35 million, representing 1.61% of circulating supply;
2. Starknet (STRK) will unlock 127 million tokens on December 15, worth approximately $14.15 million, representing 5.07% of circulating supply;
3. Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.65 million tokens on December 16, worth approximately $18.98 million, representing 1.9% of circulating supply;
4. ZKsync (ZK) will unlock 173 million tokens on December 17, worth approximately $5.64 million, representing 3.26% of circulating supply;
5. Melania Meme (MELANIA) will unlock 26.25 million tokens on December 18, worth approximately $2.93 million, representing 4.79% of circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for investors. Through our “Weekly Insights” and “In-depth Reports,” we dissect market trends. Our exclusive column “Top Picks” (powered by AI and expert dual-screening) helps identify high-potential assets and reduces trial-and-error costs. Each week, our analysts also engage directly with users via live streams to explain hot topics and forecast trends. We believe that warm, human-centered support combined with professional guidance empowers more investors to navigate market cycles and capture value opportunities in Web3.
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