After rate cuts, how far can the institutional bull market go?
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After rate cuts, how far can the institutional bull market go?
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana's project philosophies correspond respectively to three human instincts when facing the future: survival, order, and flow.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsThe dominant force behind this market cycle comes from institutions.
BTC, ETH, SOL, and BNB—the four major cryptocurrencies—have all reached new highs, but only BTC and BNB have continued to rise more than 40% after breaking past their historical peaks. SOL broke out at the beginning of the year riding on the Trump token event, while ETH was revalued mid-year driven by demand from DAT buyers; neither has yet achieved another new high.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates last night—how much further can this institution-led rally go?
1. Institutional Allocation Logic for Three Major Cryptocurrencies
A cryptocurrency's positioning directly determines its long-term value, with different positions corresponding to distinct institutional allocation strategies.
Bitcoin: Anti-Inflation Property as Digital Gold
Positioned as "digital gold," Bitcoin’s long-term logic is strongly tied to fiat currency inflation cycles. Data shows its market cap growth aligns with Global M2 and exhibits a negative correlation with the US Dollar Index. Its core value lies in “inflation resistance + preservation and appreciation of value,” making it a foundational asset for institutional portfolios.
Ethereum: Institutional Narrative Dividend as the World Computer
Positioned as the "world computer," although the Ethereum Foundation's promoted "Layer 2 scaling" narrative hasn't gained traction in capital markets, Ethereum has seized opportunities from institutional narratives such as USD stablecoins, RWA, and tokenized equities, thanks to its stable system that has operated without downtime for ten years. This allowed it to escape the collapse of the Web3 narrative. With the critical boost from DAT, Ethereum achieved market cap revaluation. Leveraging its stability and security, Ethereum will become a settlement network for institutional-grade applications.
Solana: Liquidity Advantage as the Internet Capital Markets
Positioned as the "Internet Capital Markets" (ICM)—an ecosystem for issuing, trading, and clearing on-chain assets—Solana achieved a "rebirth through death" following the FTX collapse. From the beginning of the year through now, it has captured 46% of on-chain transaction volume, consistently maintaining over 3 million daily active users, making it currently the most active blockchain network. Solana will leverage its superior performance and high liquidity to host the native crypto on-chain trading ecosystem.
Due to their distinct positioning, the institutional allocation logic for these three differs significantly. Traditional financial institutions first grasp Bitcoin’s value, then consider building institutional businesses on Ethereum, and finally may recognize the value of on-chain trading. This forms a typical path: doubt, understand, embrace.
2. Institutional Holdings Show Clear Tiered Differences Across Three Cryptocurrencies
Institutional holding data for BTC, ETH, and SOL reveals significant tiered differences, reflecting both the degree and timing of institutional recognition for each project.
Table: IOBC Capital
The comparison shows: institutional holdings as a percentage of circulating supply exceed 18% for BTC and ETH; SOL currently stands at only 9.5%, suggesting potential room for catch-up.
3. SOL DAT: New Developments in Crypto-Concept Stocks
Over the past month and a half, 18 SOL DAT companies have emerged one after another, directly driving SOL to rise over 50% from its August low.
Prominent SOL DAT companies:
Table: IOBC Capital
Among existing SOL DAT companies, Forward Industries led by Multicoin Capital founder Kyle Samani may emerge as the leading SOL DAT firm.
Unlike BTC DAT firms that simply hoard coins, many SOL DAT companies are building their own Solana validators. This transforms the strategy beyond just a "NAV play" or passive waiting for token appreciation. By operating validator businesses, they generate ongoing cash flow—an approach equivalent to “hoarding + mining,” aiming for both long-term gains and short-term profits.
4. Crypto-Concept Stocks: Reflection of Capital Market Bets
Crypto-concept stocks represent a new bridge between traditional capital and the crypto market. The extent to which traditional financial markets recognize various crypto-related businesses is reflected in the stock price performance of these crypto-concept stocks.
Table: IOBC Capital
Reviewing the crypto-concept stocks with standout gains in this cycle, two common characteristics emerge:
1. Significant bets are required to achieve valuation re-rating. There are 189 publicly traded companies holding BTC, but only 30 have holdings valued at 70% or more of their market cap, and only 12 hold more than 10,000 BTC—these 12 have seen substantial price increases. A similar pattern applies to ETH DAT listed companies. Superficial or minimal DAT strategies only trigger short-term stock fluctuations, failing to materially boost market cap or liquidity.
2. Business synergy is necessary to amplify commercial value. Transforming single-point operations into multi-faceted industrial chain布局 amplifies commercial value. For example, Robinhood has created a closed-loop business model by expanding into cryptocurrency trading, real-world asset (RWA) trading, and participation in the USDG stablecoin, driving its stock price to consecutive new highs. In contrast, Trump Media, despite extensive involvement in crypto (holding BTC, applying for an ETH ETF, launching tokens like Trump, Melania, and WLFI), lacks synergy among its ventures, resulting in lukewarm market responses to both its stock and tokens.
Conclusion
The philosophies behind Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana correspond respectively to three human instincts when facing the future—survival, order, and flow.
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