Understanding Filecoin's Fundraising Data: Costs, Initial Circulating Supply, and Pricing
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Understanding Filecoin's Fundraising Data: Costs, Initial Circulating Supply, and Pricing
Analyze FIL cost and early circulation after launch based on early investment release cycle/discount data, and the current fundamentally stable economic model and coefficients.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsSummary: Analyzing FIL costs and early circulation post-launch based on early investment vesting schedules/discount data, along with the current stable economic model and coefficients.
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Private sale phase: 143 participants, average holding of 638,000 FIL per person, average FIL cost of $0.57;
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Public sale phase: 2,318 participants, average holding of 25,700 FIL per person, average FIL cost of $2.58;
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Day 1 after launch: 422,000 FIL in circulation, 239,000 after excluding official allocations;
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Day 10 after launch: 4.08 million FIL in circulation, 2.255 million after excluding official allocations;
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Day 30 after launch: 12.49 million FIL in circulation, 7.014 million after excluding official allocations.
01 Filecoin Network Overview
The Filecoin mainnet will officially launch on October 15 based on the "Space Race" test network. Miner accounts will be reset, and testnet hashrate will directly carry over to compete for block production on the mainnet.
As of 6:00 AM on October 7, the test network had been running for 43 days, achieving a total network hashrate of 456.75 PiB, growing at a rate of 10.6 PiB per day.
Since testnet hashrate can be directly migrated to the mainnet, all miners are operating at full capacity under this incentive. Therefore, the daily growth rate of 10.6 PiB/day will also represent the initial hashrate growth speed upon mainnet launch.
Based on a hashrate increase of 10.6 PiB/day, the total network hashrate is expected to reach 549 PiB by the time the mainnet launches (evening of October 15), and the network will reach a 1 EiB hashrate scale 42 days after mainnet launch.
02 FIL Cost Analysis
Filecoin's early fundraising consisted of two phases: private sale (Advisor Sale) and public sale (Public Sale), raising a total of $205.8 million by selling 150 million FIL tokens. Over 2,100 investors (de-duplicated) participated, with an average holding of 71,800 FIL per investor and an average FIL cost of $1.36. Specifically:
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Private sale phase: 91.228 million FIL sold, 143 participants, average holding of 638,000 FIL, average cost of $0.57;
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Public sale phase: 59.634 million FIL sold, 2,318 participants, average holding of 25,700 FIL, average cost of $2.58. Among them:
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Within the first hour of the public sale: 55.556 million FIL sold, 1,359 participants, average holding of 40,900 FIL, average cost of $2.43;
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Remaining period of the public sale: 4.078 million FIL sold, 816 participants, average holding of 5,000 FIL, average cost of $4.61.
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Additionally, from a transaction volume perspective, there were over 3,000 transactions in total, averaging $67,000 per transaction, with an average purchase amount of 49,000 FIL per transaction. Specifically:
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Private sale phase: 210 transactions, average purchase size of 430,000 FIL per transaction;
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Public sale phase: 2,857 transactions, average purchase size of 20,900 FIL per transaction.
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First hour of public sale: 1,690 transactions, average purchase size of 33,000 FIL per transaction;
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Remaining period of public sale: 1,167 transactions, average purchase size of 3,500 FIL per transaction.
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03 FIL Circulation Post Mainnet Launch
1. FIL Initial Allocation
The total supply of FIL is 2 billion, allocated among three parties: official entities, early investors, and miners. The basic distribution is as follows:
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10% to investors: 7.5% sold in 2017 + 2.5% retained;
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20% to official use: 15% to Protocol Labs + 5% to Filecoin Foundation;
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70% to miners: 55% for storage miner mining + 15% retained.
2. FIL Unlocking, Release, and Circulation
After the Filecoin mainnet launch, token unlocking/release primarily comes from investors, official allocations, and miners. However, unlocked/released FIL may not immediately enter secondary market circulation—it could be long-term held or used for mining collateral, meaning the mining collateral mechanism also impacts actual FIL circulation.
1) Early Investors: Daily release of 351,000 FIL
The private and public sales have different vesting periods and associated discounts. Investors who chose longer vesting periods received corresponding price discounts. Vesting options include 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years. The 2017 fundraising breakdown is as follows:
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3-year vesting: total of 71.582 million FIL
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2-year vesting: total of 10.402 million FIL
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1-year vesting: total of 38.694 million FIL
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6-month vesting: total of 30.184 million FIL
By analyzing the quantity of FIL sold under each vesting period, the total daily release from early investors amounts to 351,000 FIL.
2) Official Allocations: Daily release of 182,500 FIL, with commitment not to sell early
Official releases include allocations to Protocol Labs, its team and contributors, and the Filecoin Foundation. A combined total of 400 million FIL (20%) is linearly vested over six years, resulting in a daily unlock of 182,548 FIL.
However, Filecoin team member "why" informally stated in the Slack forum that the official team does not intend to sell their allocated FIL in the early stages.
3) Miners: 21,000 FIL unlocked on Day 1, 30,000 on Day 10, and 50,000 on Day 30
Miner unlocks come from Space Race rewards and block mining rewards. The specific breakdown is as follows:
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Total reward from Space Race 1: 3.66 million FIL, released over 6 months post-mainnet launch, i.e., 20,000 FIL per day;
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Mining block rewards: 180-day linear release. With current daily block rewards at 173,000 FIL, the daily unlock amount on day N after launch is calculated as 960 × N: 9,600 FIL on Day 10, and 28,600 FIL on Day 30;
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Estimated unlock from Space Race 2 rewards and other minor incentives: ~20,000 FIL, released over 6 months (~a few dozen FIL per day), negligible in volume.
Therefore, considering both sources, the miner-related unlock amounts are approximately 21,000 FIL on Day 1, 30,000 on Day 10, and 50,000 on Day 30.
4) FIL Collateral Demand: Network-wide daily collateral requirement of 135,000 FIL
With miners adding capacity at 10.6 PiB/day, they seal approximately 331,250 sectors daily. At a current collateral requirement of about 0.4 FIL per sector, the network requires around 133,000 FIL in daily collateral.
In summary, the early FIL release dynamics are as follows:
Circulation status on Day 15:
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Daily unlock/release rates:
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Daily unlock from early investors, official allocations, and miners: 554,000 + 960 × day number
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Daily FIL collateral demand: -133,000/day
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Net daily new circulation: 421,000 + 960 × day number
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Net daily new circulation (excluding official): 238,000 + 960 × day number
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Day 1 circulation:
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Cumulative unlock from early investors, official, and miners: 555,000
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Cumulative collateral deduction: 133,000
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FIL in circulation: 422,000
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FIL in circulation (excluding official): 239,000
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Day 5 circulation:
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Cumulative unlock: 2.702 million
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Cumulative collateral deduction: -664,000
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FIL in circulation: 2.038 million
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FIL in circulation (excluding official): 1.126 million
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Day 10 circulation:
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Cumulative unlock: 5.409 million
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Cumulative collateral deduction: -1.328 million
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FIL in circulation: 4.08 million
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FIL in circulation (excluding official): 2.255 million
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Cumulative unlock: 8.139 million
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Cumulative collateral deduction: -1.992 million
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FIL in circulation: 6.147 million
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FIL in circulation (excluding official): 3.409 million
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Day 30 circulation:
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Cumulative unlock: 16.474 million
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Cumulative collateral deduction: -3.983 million
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FIL in circulation: 12.49 million
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FIL in circulation (excluding official): 7.014 million
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