Interview with Peter Schiff: On the Eve of His Challenge to CZ, What's on the Mind of This "Contrarian" Who Has Been Bearish on Bitcoin for 15 Years?
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Interview with Peter Schiff: On the Eve of His Challenge to CZ, What's on the Mind of This "Contrarian" Who Has Been Bearish on Bitcoin for 15 Years?
For the 15 years that Bitcoin rose from a few cents to $100,000, he consistently maintained a bearish stance, becoming the most famous "contrarian indicator" in the crypto world.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsCompiled & Translated: TechFlow
Guest: Peter Schiff, American stockbroker and financial commentator
Host: Michael Jerome
Podcast Source: threadguy
Original Title: Peter Schiff: Gold vs Bitcoin, Market Crashes, US Dollar Crisis and More | TG Podcast
Release Date: October 23, 2025
Key Takeaways
Peter Schiff, Wall Street's most famous "gold diehard," a staunch adherent of the Austrian School of Economics, and the crypto community's most controversial "voice of opposition." Over the past 15 years, as Bitcoin rose from fractions of a cent to $100,000, he has consistently predicted its downfall, becoming the most famous "contrarian indicator" in the crypto world.
In October 2025, he even launched his own tokenized gold product, attempting to transform gold using blockchain technology. This move immediately triggered public skepticism from CZ, founder of Binance, leading to an agreed-upon "Gold vs Bitcoin" century debate in Dubai.
In this podcast, Schiff once again articulates his views on Bitcoin, gold, and the future of money. Whether or not you agree with him, the logic and arguments of this "crypto dissident" are worth serious consideration for every investor. Below is the full transcript of the podcast.
Highlights of Key Insights
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Bitcoin supporters' misunderstanding of gold primarily stems from their defense of Bitcoin, because Bitcoin itself has no intrinsic value. Holding Bitcoin, you can't actually do anything with it.
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I still believe Bitcoin will eventually go to zero. I don't think my prediction was wrong—the real mistake was underestimating the public’s blind trust in it and the marketing power of those promoting Bitcoin.
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The core issue this time is no longer mortgage loans or subprime debt, but the sovereign debt crisis of U.S. Treasury bonds. In other words, the crux of this crisis lies in the global loss of confidence in the U.S. government’s ability to repay its sovereign debt.
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Central banks have already begun quietly reducing their dollar reserves while increasing gold holdings. I believe gold will eventually become the world’s primary reserve asset again.
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If there are cryptocurrency enthusiasts among your audience, my advice is: buy gold and silver now.
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The cryptocurrency market is a massive bubble—early entrants profit by selling at high prices to later buyers, while those who end up holding the bag may suffer huge losses.
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No bubble can last forever. Bitcoin has no intrinsic value at its core—its price depends entirely on the influx of speculators.
Bitcoin Supporters’ Misconceptions About Gold
Host: As a critic of Bitcoin, what do you think is the biggest misconception Bitcoin supporters have about gold?
Peter:
Their misunderstanding of gold mainly stems from defending Bitcoin, because Bitcoin itself has no intrinsic value. Holding Bitcoin, you can't actually do anything. You can transfer it to someone else, but they also can't use it for any practical purpose.
They see gold as a "worthless rock," believing its value exists only because people subjectively think it's valuable, yet they ignore that gold actually has intrinsic value—which is precisely why it became money in the first place.
Bitcoin was indeed designed to mimic some key characteristics of gold, such as fungibility, durability, divisibility, and portability. These traits made gold historically more suitable than other commodities as money. But the problem is, Bitcoin lacks gold’s intrinsic value. Something without value cannot become a true store of wealth, no matter how many of these traits it possesses.
Gold is one of the most useful metals on the periodic table. Even after centuries, gold retains its physical and chemical properties—this is exactly why it serves as a store of value. In contrast, Bitcoin has no practical utility and cannot store value. Although it has some interesting technical features, they aren’t scarce—thousands of other cryptocurrencies offer similar functionalities, and the number of cryptocurrencies is theoretically unlimited, further undermining their scarcity.
The cryptocurrency market is a massive bubble—early entrants profit by selling at high prices to later buyers, while those who end up holding the bag may suffer huge losses. This dynamic ensures the bubble will burst, leaving most investors as victims.
Why Bitcoin Will Ultimately Go to Zero
Host: In 2017, you predicted Bitcoin would go to zero, yet today its price has reached new highs. Do you think your prediction was mistaken?
Peter:
I still believe Bitcoin will eventually go to zero. I don't think my prediction was wrong—the real mistake was underestimating the public’s blind trust in it and the marketing prowess of those promoting Bitcoin. I must admit, early Bitcoin investors were exceptionally skilled at packaging and promoting the concept, convincing people Bitcoin was a worthwhile investment. Their goal was clear: attract more buyers to purchase their Bitcoins, driving up prices so they could sell off their holdings—a classic "pump and dump" scheme.
In recent years, this pattern has repeated multiple times. For example, the launch of Bitcoin ETFs and Trump winning the U.S. presidential election. I believe the crypto industry played a role in Trump’s election, hoping such a political environment would boost Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Indeed, early investors profited enormously this way. But precisely because of this, Bitcoin’s price has essentially stagnated after reaching its peak.
If we measure in gold terms, Bitcoin’s value is declining. Its price has dropped roughly 30% from its peak. Priced in gold, it once reached 126,000, now around 108,000. From this perspective, Bitcoin is actually in a "bear market."
Gold’s Rise and the Coming Monetary Reset
Host: This year, gold has performed exceptionally well, achieving its best record since 1979. Can you explain to our audience—especially younger listeners—why gold is performing so strongly? What are the driving factors behind this?
Peter:
If there are cryptocurrency enthusiasts among your audience, my advice is: buy gold and silver now.
Gold is performing well this year because the current economic environment closely resembles that of the 1970s. At that time, we faced stagflation (economic stagnation combined with high inflation), along with a major shift in the global monetary system. In 1971, U.S. President Nixon announced the dollar would脱离 the gold standard. Before that, the dollar was pegged to gold—it was backed by gold and directly redeemable for gold. Therefore, the global monetary system was effectively based on gold, even though the dollar appeared to be at its center.
Today, we’re undergoing a similar adjustment in the monetary system. The world is gradually moving away from reliance on the dollar. In fact, this shift should have happened back in the 1970s, but was delayed due to the dollar’s continued dominance. However, in recent years, growing dissatisfaction with the U.S. budget deficits, trade deficits, and frequent use of economic sanctions has led more countries to question the dollar system. Central banks have already begun quietly reducing their dollar reserves while increasing gold holdings.
I believe gold will eventually become the world’s primary reserve asset again. While this doesn’t necessarily mean returning to the gold standard (where currencies are directly linked to gold), central banks may increasingly hold gold instead of dollars, euros, or pounds. Gold will become the core asset central banks use to maintain their currency’s value.
For the United States, this will be a massive transformation. We’ll no longer be able to print money to buy goods we can’t produce domestically, nor borrow endlessly to sustain high consumption. This means the cost of living in America will rise significantly, borrowing costs will soar, and asset prices (like stocks and real estate) will fall sharply in real terms. While nominally these assets might appear stable, priced in gold, their value has already plummeted. For instance, since 1999, the Dow Jones Index has quadrupled in dollar terms, but measured against gold, it has declined over 70%.
Assets are losing value, and this trend will continue and accelerate as the world formally shifts from the dollar standard back toward a gold-based system.
Peter’s Prediction of a Financial Crisis Worse Than 2008
Host: You’ve said the coming financial crisis will be far worse than the 2008 subprime crisis. What exactly does that mean? How will this crisis unfold, in what form will it manifest, and what signs indicate it’s approaching?
Peter:
First, we need to revisit the 2008 crisis. That crisis centered on debt, initially erupting in the subprimemortgagemarket, then spreading to financial institutions and insurers. Fortunately, the U.S. government avoided worse outcomes through massive bailouts and stimulus. Without these measures, the impact would have been far more severe. While these interventions eased problems temporarily, they merely postponed them into the future.
The coming crisis, however, is fundamentally different from 2008. This time, the core issue isn’t mortgages or subprime loans, but the sovereign debt crisis of U.S. Treasury bonds. In other words, the key to this crisis is the global loss of confidence in the U.S. government’s ability to repay its sovereign debt.
This crisis isn’t just a sovereign debt crisis—it’s also a currency crisis. Its impact will far exceed 2008 because it directly undermines the credibility of the dollar—the foundation of the global financial system. If global investors lose faith in the dollar and stop buying U.S. Treasuries, the U.S. government will lose its ability to bail itself out. The Federal Reserve will be powerless too—back in 2008, the Fed could replace bad debts with newly issued dollars or Treasuries, but now global confidence in both the dollar and Treasuries is eroding.
Worse yet, this crisis will trigger a sharp devaluation of the dollar,leading to soaring inflation, while the government becomes unable to respond effectively. Printing more money would only fuel inflation further and accelerate the dollar’s collapse, creating a vicious cycle.
We’re already trapped in a dilemma. For decades, governments have used short-term fixes to avoid pain, only allowing problems to accumulate. Now, the cost of solving them is higher than ever, and the crisis’s impact will be far deeper than in 2008.
How the U.S. Sovereign Debt Collapse Will Unfold
Host: When things start deteriorating, what will that look like specifically? What do you think will be the first clear sign of crisis?
Peter:
I believe gold prices are an excellent early warning signal. For example, last week gold nearly reached $4,400 before pulling back to around $4,000. Still, that price is double what it was two years ago.
Looking back, around 1980, global confidence in the dollar collapsed, triggering a wave of dollar selling. At that time, we took two key steps to restore trust. First, Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker allowed short-term interest rates to spike to 20%, sending investors a clear message: “If you’re willing to hold dollars, we’ll pay you 20% interest.” This was highly attractive when inflation peaked at only 10%–12%. Second, the Reagan administration stabilized market confidence through tax cuts and economic reforms.
But today’s situation is completely different. First, today’s leadership bears no resemblance to those past decision-makers. Even if Paul Volcker himself returned to lead today’s Fed, he couldn’t implement similar policies. The reason is simple: we can no longer afford such high interest rates. Today, U.S. national debt stands at $38 trillion—compared to less than $1 trillion in 1980.
Even worse, much of today’s debt is financed through short-term instruments. About one-third of U.S. Treasury debt matures within a year, and the average maturity across all debt is only four to five years—making it predominantly short-term debt. If interest rates rise to 10%, annual interest payments alone would reach $4 trillion, while total U.S. tax revenue is only about $5 trillion. Under these conditions, the government couldn’t even cover interest, let alone repay principal.
Most countries finance national debt through long-term bonds, so even if rates jump to 20%, budgets aren’t immediately impacted—because those debts were locked in at lower rates and won’t mature for 10, 20, or 30 years. But the U.S. is different. Roughly one-third of our national debt matures within a year, and the entire $38 trillion portfolio has an average maturity of just four to five years—short-term exposure.
If rates rise to 10%, the U.S. government will face immense fiscal pressure. Interest payments alone could hit $4 trillion—nearly matching total tax revenues of $5 trillion. Such high interest burdens would cripple government operations. Meanwhile, high rates would trigger waves of corporate and household bankruptcies, cause unemployment to surge, reduce tax revenues, and widen budget deficits further.
Thus, the U.S. government faces a dilemma: on one hand, raising interest rates to fightinflationcould collapse the economy; on the other, failing to raise rates risks runaway inflation, potentially leading to hyperinflation or a full-blown currency crisis. Either way, the U.S. lacks effective tools to respond.
To avoid the worst-case scenario, the U.S. may have to opt for partial default. For example, the government might declare it can’t repay the full $40 trillion debt, offering creditors only partial repayment. While this would severely damage the credit system, it might be the only way to prevent total collapse.
Additionally, the U.S. needs higher interest rates to address fundamental issues. For decades, low interest rates have discouraged saving and fueled excessive consumption. This model has left the U.S. heavily dependent on imports, accumulating massive trade deficits. To reverse this, higher interest rates are needed to encourage saving, fund manufacturing investments, and rebuild domestic production capacity.
Yet this won’t be easy. Over decades, the U.S. has steadily lost its manufacturing base, supply chains, and skilled workforce. If the dollar loses reserve currency status, other countries will no longer accept dollars as payment, forcing the U.S. to rely on domestic manufacturing. But currently, the U.S. lacks sufficient factories, infrastructure, and trained workers. These capabilities existed decades ago—but no longer.
Peter’s Survival Plan for a Dollar Collapse
Host: Assuming your theory proves correct, how should we prepare? What advice do you have for young middle-class individuals?
Peter:
Youth is the greatest asset—because even if you make mistakes, you have time to recover and learn. But youth also makes one prone to errors, like many young people investing in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies today. Yet even if you lose money, you gain lessons to avoid similar mistakes later. Older individuals may not have time to recover such losses.
Bitcoin’s price has indeed risen. But if it ultimately crashes to zero, that proves my point—that Bitcoin is essentially a Ponzi scheme. Even if some bought low and sold high to profit, most people can’t do that. If Bitcoin rises from $5,000 to $100,000 then falls to $1,000, many will get trapped at the top and suffer heavy losses.
I’ve always believed Bitcoin can’t fulfill its promised value and will ultimately fail.
Host: So if your prediction comes true, what’s your survival strategy? For example, if gold hits $10,000, $15,000, or even $20,000, would you recommend fully investing in gold? And if we can’t hold dollars, what should we do?
Peter:
For someone like me with established assets, I recommend allocating 5% to 20% of funds to gold. Additionally, I’m bullish on high-quality dividend-paying stocks, especially those offering inflation-adjusted returns globally—these investments can help hedge against dollar depreciation.
For younger people or those with limited savings, I suggest buying physical gold or silver coins. Silver coins are cheaper and more accessible. For example, purchasing physical silver coins with $5,000 to $10,000 is a solid wealth preservation strategy.
Also, I recommend stockpiling non-perishable daily essentials, like food and toothpaste. Buying items needed over the next six months to two years in advance allows you to avoid price hikes and shortages. For instance, if toothpaste is $5 now but jumps to $10 next year, buying early gives you a 100% return.
When dollar depreciation drives rampant price increases, governments may impose price controls, worsening shortages. Merchants may refuse to sell at capped prices, leading to black markets. Stockpiling in advance avoids being forced to buy at inflated black-market prices.
Even without price controls, dollar depreciation will push prices up. But if you hold silver or gold coins, your real purchasing power increases—because these precious metals typically offset currency depreciation.
As for Bitcoin, I don’t believe it can hedge inflation like gold or silver. On the contrary, Bitcoin’s price may fall further during dollar depreciation. Thus, using Bitcoin to buy goods may require spending more Bitcoin—opposite to what many expect.
Why People Ignored Peter’s Warnings
Host: When you predicted the financial crisis in 2006, why did so many people ignore your warnings?
Peter:
It was mainly due to groupthink. When most people share the same view, they tend to ignore any opposing opinions. Psychologists call this cognitive dissonance. When people’s beliefs or behaviors are challenged, they instinctively reject the information—because accepting it might require changing lifestyles or admitting mistakes. For many at the time, acknowledging an impending crisis threatened their worldview and livelihood—so they chose to ignore my warnings.
In the Bitcoin community, I see the same cognitive dissonance. Bitcoin supporters are fully committed—they see me as an ignorant “old fossil” who doesn’t understand new things. No matter how I explain Bitcoin’s risks, they choose to ignore it. They’ve turned Bitcoin into a kind of religion, preaching “never sell your Bitcoin.” In reality, this slogan mainly serves to attract new buyers and keep prices rising.
Host: But you’ve criticized Bitcoin for over a decade, and the bubble still hasn’t burst.
Peter:
The Bitcoin bubble has lasted far longer than the housing bubble did. I started criticizing Bitcoin even earlier than I did mortgage and housing markets. But because the Bitcoin bubble is so massive, many assume I must be wrong this time—believing that if it were truly a bubble, it would have already burst.
The Bitcoin community has successfully attracted Wall Street. By introducingETFs, they brought in more institutional investors, undoubtedly extending the bubble’s lifespan. Additionally, Bitcoin supporters have driven prices higher through financing and leverage, even successfully involving the Trump family and gaining presidential support. These factors make the Bitcoin bubble appear indestructible.
But no bubble lasts forever. Bitcoin has no intrinsic value at its core—its price relies entirely on a constant influx of speculators. Only if new buyers keep entering at higher prices can the bubble persist. Eventually, though, new buyers will run out—and the bubble will burst.
In fact, signs of collapse are already emerging. For example, Gemini, the company founded by the Winklevoss twins, saw its stock plunge 60% within a month of going public. Donald Trump Media has dropped 70% since October.
How Peter Traded the 2008 Crisis
Host: Let’s talk about the 2008 financial crisis—how did you trade it, and what lessons can we draw?
Peter:
I actually suffered heavy losses in 2008. What made me money was my 2007 subprime short position—but that trade ended in 2007. I held large positions in gold and foreign stocks, but in 2008, they fell even more than U.S. equities. Still, these assets rebounded quickly in 2009, helping me recoup many losses.
At the time, I was more focused on the dollar crisis. In my first book, *Crash Proof*, I argued that after the financial crisis, governments would respond by printing money (i.e., quantitative easing). I predicted this would cause dollar depreciation and a bond market crisis, while pushing gold prices higher. However, I was wrong about timing—though gold briefly hit $1,900, it later retreated, and the dollar experienced a temporary rebound.
We managed to inflate a bubble bigger than the 2008 one. In fact, I call it the “everything bubble.” We have massive bubbles in stocks, real estate, bonds, and cryptocurrencies. The Fed manipulated all of this, postponing the reckoning far longer than I expected. In my latest book, I clarify that the financial crash wasn’t the real collapse I feared. I warned about a financial crisis, but what I truly worry about is the collapse of the dollar and bond markets—and that hasn’t happened yet.
Host: Do you think it’s imminent now?
Peter:
I think it’s very close. Gold’s renewed rally is a key signal—just like the subprime market collapse in 2007 signaled I was right about the financial crisis, though most ignored it at the time.
Many see gold’s rise as mere speculation, but it actually reflects global economic unease. Today, people are again ignoring gold’s rally, dismissing it as speculation without understanding its significance. I believe this shows declining global confidence in the dollar—and I think the long-overdue dollar crisis is finally approaching.
Host: You mentioned gold—has it entered bubble territory too?
Peter:
I don’t think gold is in a bubble. Prices have fluctuated, but nowhere near bubble levels.
Host: What’s your take on the blockchain industry? Are there positive developments, like stablecoins orsmart contracts?
Peter:
A few years ago, I and a friend launched an NFT called “Golden Victory,” but the hype quickly faded. Ten years ago, people told me blockchain would change everything, but so far, it hasn’t changed anything. Some made money hyping it, but in my life, I haven’t used blockchain—I don’t have my car title on blockchain, nor my property deed.
Peter Hints at an Upcoming Gold DeFi Platform
Host: Blockchain is actually ideal for tokenizing gold.
Peter:
That’s true. Many question gold’s practicality—asking, “How do you buy coffee with gold?” But historically, the gold standard functioned for many years—even in technologically primitive times, gold worked well as money. Today’s advanced technology makes gold even more applicable than before.
Host: Like tokenized gold?
Peter:
Exactly. You can store gold in a custodian and represent ownership via tokens. Blockchain enables instant, transparent, and nearly cost-free transfers of ownership.
Just as people discuss stablecoins, but the problem is the dollar itself isn’t stable. Holding dollar-backed stablecoins leads to depreciation, and you don’t earn interest from the issuer. In contrast, tokenized gold offers advantages—gold preserves purchasing power over the long term.
Functionally, tokenized gold achieves what Bitcoin promised but failed to deliver: it can serve as both a payment method and a store and unit of account.
As inflation worsens—especially in developed nations—demand for tokenized gold will grow significantly. People can protect their wealth via a gold standard without waiting for government action. Gold can be an efficient currency, as convenient as fiat.
How Traditional Media Is Being Disrupted
Host: Beyond gold and Bitcoin, what’s your view on the future of financial media?
I livestream here daily, discussing on-chain content, crypto, prediction markets, and emerging markets. You not only run a major YouTube channel but frequently appear on Fox and CNBC. Yet now, a gap seems to be widening between younger generations and traditional financial media. For example, the other day during an interview, the host didn’t even know you could buy gold for one dollar instead of spending $4,100 for a full ounce.
Peter:
I believe financial media is losing viewer trust because it fails to provide high-quality information. Financial news overly relies on advertisers and guest interests, promoting mainstream narratives while ignoring alternative views. In the past, they’d invite me to express dissenting opinions—even mocking me sometimes. But now, even that opportunity is gone.
If you don’t follow the mainstream narrative, you won’t be invited. This harms viewers. For example, mainstream media ignores gold’s performance, despite gold outperforming stocks. Also, foreign stocks have vastly outperformed U.S. equities this year—yet this goes unreported. A foreign dividend fund I manage rose about 50% this year, while U.S. equities gained only a quarter of that. Clearly, overseas returns are superior, yet mainstream media fails to convey this critical information.
Host: I think the next dollar or debt crisis will severely damage mainstream financial media, giving independent voices a chance to emerge.
Peter:
Completely agree. My own YouTube channel has been suppressed for years. They label my content as “misinformation,” drastically limiting video recommendations. Despite having 600,000 subscribers, almost all viewers are existing subscribers—very few new audiences discover my content.
Host: Have you tried adding “Bitcoin” to your titles? Maybe that would help.
Peter：
Interestingly, I posted some videos on Shift Gold’s YouTube channel, which isn’t restricted. One video got nearly 100,000 views in a day, while my main channel’s search discovery rate is only 11%—in contrast, 65% of the new channel’s views come from search recommendations.
Host: It seems more people are turning to independent financial advice rather than relying on mainstream media, realizing the information they receive is incomplete.
Peter:
Exactly. Mainstream media delivers content shaped by advertisers’ interests. Guests on these programs are usually government officials or managers of large funds, so media outlets must cater to their interests and promote their narratives.
Host: What changes do you think this will bring?
Peter：
I believe independent media will gradually gain influence while mainstream media declines. Viewers will realize mainstream outlets don’t provide complete information, selectively pushing certain narratives.
Host: Last question, Peter—do you still hold any Bitcoin? Even just one dollar’s worth?
Peter:
I haven’t kept any Bitcoin received from Ordinal sales. I do have a wallet with about one-third of a Bitcoin, but I haven’t been able to access it for years.
Host: So you’ve never personally bought Bitcoin with your own money?
Peter:
Correct. I’ve never bought Bitcoin with my own money—all my Bitcoin was donated by others. I even jokingly set up a “Bitcoin Strategic Reserve,” publicly sharing my address, and many people sent me Bitcoin. Currently, this reserve holds about $6,000–$7,000 worth of Bitcoin.
Host: Ironically, these Bitcoin holdings have outperformed your gold—held for 35 years—over the past five years.
Peter：
Indeed, the value of these Bitcoins has increased significantly. But gold has performed well too, especially given my initial purchase price. While I might be a billionaire today if I had invested in Bitcoin instead of gold and gold stocks 20 years ago, I have no regrets.
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