Arthur Hayes' latest interview: Fiat currency will continue to depreciate, user growth is the core challenge facing Web3 companies
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Arthur Hayes' latest interview: Fiat currency will continue to depreciate, user growth is the core challenge facing Web3 companies
"My favorite sci-fi series is 'The Three-Body Problem'."
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsGuest: Arthur Hayes, Co-founder of BitMEX
Compiled & Translated: LenaXin, ChainCatcher
ChainCatcher Editor's Summary
This article compiles a deep conversation between Tokened Podcast and Arthur Hayes, billionaire co-founder of BitMEX, on his unique perspectives about wealth, risk, and the freedom brought by travel. From navigating market volatility to exploring the world, Hayes shares core insights from his journey—lessons applicable not only in crypto but also as life philosophy.
(1) Hayes' Entry Point: Transitioning from Traditional Finance to Crypto
Tokened: What initially drew you into the Bitcoin space, and how did you get started?
Arthur Hayes: I used to work at Deutsche Bank and Citibank in Hong Kong, trading ETF market making. After being laid off by Citibank in 2013, I decided to leave traditional finance.
At that time, I read articles about Bitcoin on Zero Hedge during my unemployment period and began researching it. Satoshi Nakamoto’s whitepaper deeply attracted me, especially aligning with my interest in gold investment.
In the spring-summer transition of 2013, I fully embraced Bitcoin’s philosophy. As a trader, I studied how the cryptocurrency market worked—how to go long, short, and trade derivatives. By conducting arbitrage trades between Icybit and Mt.Gox, I gained practical experience.
This experience led me to decide to build a derivatives exchange. From late 2013 to 2014, I co-founded the company with Ben Delo and Sam Reid. Twelve years later, I’m still deeply involved in this field.
(2) Trends in Crypto Today According to Hayes
Tokened: How do you view current trends in the cryptocurrency space? Is there excessive hype? Are cryptocurrencies serving as payment methods, underlying blockchain infrastructure, or asset tokenization? Which areas carry bubble risks?
Arthur Hayes: The core trend is the continuous devaluation of fiat currencies. Take Japan as an example—its debt-to-GDP ratio has hit record highs, making it a prime example of massive money printing. Inflation concerns are growing; people struggle to afford housing and food, while wage growth lags far behind monetary expansion. This is the most fundamental economic trend.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin always holds value. Unless we can prove countries stop printing money, holding Bitcoin remains rational. Despite price volatility, over the past 15 years since the genesis block in 2009, Bitcoin has maintained the best asset performance record in human history. Its fundamental driver is global monetary devaluation.
Tokened: But I think if you look at any media today, they focus too much on trading rather than real-world use.
Arthur Hayes: People always have a need to trade. They know their dollars, yen, euros are constantly losing value, yet they still need to make a living and support families. That’s precisely why Bitcoin always retains relevance.
(3) Hayes’ Travel Philosophy: Exploring the World, Strengthening Connections
Tokened: You mentioned many wealthy individuals now live in Singapore—but can it truly be called home?
Arthur Hayes: I love skiing and spend much of my time in Hokkaido and Japanese ski resorts. I also enjoy surfing, kiteboarding, and other outdoor sports—always seeking a lifestyle connected with nature.
Tokened: Does traveling change your perspective on freedom, power, and money?
Arthur Hayes: 24/7 global accessibility has become a key modern privilege. Pandemic-era travel restrictions showed us some people are content staying put, others crave movement—it depends on environment and personal preference.
The global trend is clear: travel demand keeps rising, airline miles and fuel consumption increase annually. Humanity always desires to explore the world and strengthen connections—that’s the timeless value of travel.
Tokened: What does your daily life look like now? Can you describe a typical day?
Arthur Hayes: During ski season, I usually go to bed around 7–8 PM and wake up at 4 AM. I start with stretching and prepare all my meals in advance—after all, I’ll be hiking on snow for eight hours each day.
(4) Industry Evolution: From Talent Shortage to Attention Competition
Tokened: Do you think starting a company was easier back then or more challenging compared to today?
Arthur Hayes: Challenges exist but take different forms. BitMEX’s core challenge was talent acquisition. Back then, many qualified professionals were unwilling to enter the industry, forcing us to hire high-salary candidates we might not consider today.
Now the situation has fundamentally changed—crypto has become a standard career path. Take Maelstrom, for example: we attract top university graduates who enter the crypto ecosystem well-trained, with the right mindset and career vision. This evolution in talent reflects industry maturity.
Tokened: Have startup funding needs changed?
Arthur Hayes: I believe the core challenge for Web3 startups remains capturing user attention. While development costs have indeed decreased, the cost of breaking through attention barriers continues to rise. Whether running ads or paying KOL affiliate fees, acquiring traffic requires significant capital.
Tokened: When investing, do you also provide strategic advice to portfolio companies?
Arthur Hayes: Yes, we serve as strategic advisors to large enterprises.
Tokened: If you could give advice to your early-stage self, what would you most want to change?
Arthur Hayes: Hire better people.
(5) Digital Nomad Choices: Going Offline, Einstein, and Antarctic Dreams
Tokened: Choose between being completely offline for a year or being unable to travel for a year. Which would you pick?
Arthur Hayes: Being completely offline for a year.
Tokened: If you could choose one historical figure as a travel companion, who would it be?
Arthur Hayes: Einstein.
Tokened: Not Satoshi?
Arthur Hayes: Satoshi should remain mysterious. No meetings, no identity revealed—that’s the ideal way to preserve this legend.
Tokened: You travel frequently—any destinations you’ve never visited but always dreamed of?
Arthur Hayes: Antarctica.
Tokened: When traveling, do you bring books or watch movies? Any works that particularly inspired you?
Arthur Hayes: My favorite sci-fi series is "The Three-Body Problem."
(6) Advice from Hayes to Entrepreneurs
Tokened: If you could give one piece of advice to any entrepreneur, what would it be?
Arthur Hayes: Building a product truly worth paying for is the core. Many founders today focus on creating products favored by VCs rather than demanded by markets. They may raise funds, even get acquired or IPO, but founders often lose ownership—essentially stacking free services with features nobody really needs.
A Web2 company typically takes years to reach a $50 million valuation, whereas a Web3 company issuing tokens might achieve the same within hours. This difference highlights fundamentally distinct valuation logics between the two business models.
Tokened: Do you mainly invest in Web3, or a mix of Web2 and Web3?
Arthur Hayes: Maelstrom focuses on token investments, not equity. We’re familiar with the high liquidity of crypto markets and typically recover costs within two years.
In contrast, equity investments require 7–10 years—misaligned with our liquidity needs. This isn’t denying equity value, but a strategic choice based on capital efficiency.
I like this flexibility. Crypto is my domain—I understand successful tokenomics models, so we stay focused. We stick to our circle of competence and avoid blind cross-sector moves.
(7) Could Decentralized Media Be the Key Breakthrough?
Tokened: In the BlackFree project, which critical type of project do you feel is currently missing?
Arthur Hayes: I hope to see decentralized social media emerge. Current platforms like X, Instagram, and TikTok monopolize community interaction value—breaking this centralization is the key breakthrough.
Tokened: You mean data and content?
Arthur Hayes: Your data and content could be banned anytime by authorities—whether Elon Musk or nation-states. This centralized control contradicts the core ethos of the crypto movement. We seek data ownership and economic autonomy, aiming to eliminate government and big financial institutions’ intermediary monopolies through disruptive tech. The current architecture clearly conflicts with this vision.
Tokened: Why put your data on-chain?
Arthur Hayes: Founders should focus on underserved niches. Don’t chase celebrity users—build dedicated social credit systems for specific groups. Start from grassroots communities, create low-cost network effects, and gradually expand the ecosystem. That’s the effective path to break social media monopolies.
Tokened: Are you still active in the NFT space?
Arthur Hayes: I don’t like CryptoPunks.
Tokened: Are we missing a key project? Maybe one you personally initiate and develop, specifically serving your own follower base?
Arthur Hayes: While I lack the business or technical ability to lead social media transformation, I firmly believe a group of dedicated entrepreneurs must solve this. No one has truly cracked it yet. The key is advancing decentralized social media with full support from the crypto community.
As for Musk? Clearly not his goal. He aims to strengthen X’s centralization, using data to train AI and integrate into robotics. That logic stands in complete opposition to decentralization.
(8) Where Is Crypto Headed? Future Outlook
Tokened: How do you see the cryptocurrency landscape evolving over the next 5–10 years? What developments do you expect?
Arthur Hayes: I expect prices to rise significantly, but more importantly, user scale. I hope to see a real application ecosystem with 2 billion active wallets—meaning current adoption must grow a hundredfold.
Tokened: How would you clearly explain the value of joining Web3 to potential users?
Arthur Hayes: For beginners, start with a small allocation to Bitcoin, read the Satoshi whitepaper, and share it with friends. This process naturally creates polarized views—either recognizing its revolutionary value or dismissing it as a scam. Based on that, dive deeper into crypto according to personal needs.
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