Bybit-MNT Flywheel: Why is this L2 token trading at a discount?
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Bybit-MNT Flywheel: Why is this L2 token trading at a discount?
Mantle (MNT) has achieved a strategic transformation, shifting from a general-purpose L2 to Bybit's core utility token, creating structural demand through integration with the exchange.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: cptn3mox
Key Takeaways:
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Mantle (MNT) has strategically pivoted from a general-purpose L2 to Bybit's core utility token, creating structural demand through exchange integration.
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Key catalysts from Bybit integration include enhanced collateral usage, VIP fee tiers, and potential buyback and burn mechanisms—most launching by end of September 2025.
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MNT currently trades at $1.15, significantly undervalued compared to peers, with the lowest MCAP/Vol (0.12) and MCAP/OI (0.15) ratios among major exchange tokens.
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Benchmarking against competitors suggests 3x–6x upside potential over a 6–12 month horizon ($3.45 ~ $6.90).
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Mantle’s emerging but rapidly growing L2 ecosystem adds additional utility beyond deep Bybit integration, providing long-term investment resilience.
Background
Mantle (MNT) was spun off from BitDAO via a governance approval in May 2023 through a 1:1 token migration, and launched its modular Ethereum L2 mainnet in July 2023.
As the network’s gas, governance, and incentive token, MNT is central to driving most on-network activity and governance. The Mantle L2 network is primarily backed by the Mantle Treasury, which holds $4 billion in assets and a $200 million ecosystem fund supporting RWA and DeFi development.
In July 2025, Mantle announced a deep integration with Bybit, positioning MNT as its core utility token for fee discounts and collateral use (similar to Binance’s BNB), along with other potential catalysts.
This was further reinforced in August 2025 when Mantle appointed Bybit’s Co-CEO (Helen Liu) and Head of Spot Trading (Emily Bao) as key advisors, working closely with Mantle’s core team.
Catalysts: Why Now?
MNT, as Bybit’s core utility token, is poised for significant growth. Below are some announced catalysts, while others are implied or speculative.
Bybit Integration Roadmap
Collateral Usage: Traders can use MNT as collateral for perpetual contracts (link)
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Already live, with recent significant increases in collateral value ratios
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For example: If you previously held 1 million MNT tokens, you could trade up to 90% LTV—now you can trade at 100% LTV;
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If you're a large institution holding 8 million MNT tokens, you could previously trade at 10% LTV—now you can trade at 60% LTV.
VIP Fee Tiers: Hold MNT for trading discounts (link)
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25% discount on spot trading
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10% discount on Linear contracts (USDT Perpetuals/Futures, USDC Perpetuals)
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This naturally creates structural buy-side demand, especially from institutional traders who must save on fees.
Potential Buyback and Burn: Using CEX revenue to repurchase and burn MNT
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If approved, this could be MNT’s biggest catalyst
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Must pass a governance proposal and gain token holder approval (though we know supply is concentrated among shareholders)
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Reduces circulating supply and could make MNT deflationary (see AMA recap)
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OKX / OKB example (link)
OTC Portal: Enables large buyers to purchase MNT in bulk (current liquidity is scarce)
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In development, targeting whales/funds
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Web version launching by end of September, enabling self-service bulk OTC / RFQ trading.
Other MNT Utilities:
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MNT Launchpool: Stake MNT to receive tokens from upcoming Bybit TGE Launchpool offerings.
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Increased spot pairs: Available spot trading pairs will expand from 4 to over 20, starting in September 2025.
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Crypto card usage: By end of September, MNT can be used for crypto card payments with zero conversion fees, consumer users get extra acceleration, faster VIP upgrades, and more cashback via Bybit Card & Pay.
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Bonus: In addition to ongoing activities like the MNT Puzzle Hunt, we plan to offer access to options trading, VIP events, and merchandise.
Timeline
Comparison with Other Exchanges
MNT reference price = $1.15
MNT is the most undervalued exchange token based on "MCAP/Vol" and "MCAP/OI" metrics
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Bybit’s volume is 1/3 of Binance’s, yet MNT’s market cap is only 1/30 of BNB’s
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Bybit’s volume is 5x that of Crypto(dot)com, yet MNT’s market cap is only half of CRO’s
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Bybit’s volume is 2x that of Hyperliquid, yet MNT’s market cap is only one-third of HYPE’s
Price Target
Current MNT price: $1.15 / Market Cap: $3.7 billion
1. Using MCAP/Vol Metric
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Assuming same MCAP / Volume ratio as Binance (1.05): $1.15 → $10.10 (~8.7x return)
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Assuming average competitor MCAP / Volume ratio (~0.71): $1.15 → $6.88 (~6x return)
2. Quantified Flows (based solely on buyback and burn impact)
Assumptions
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Daily volume: ~$32.7 billion (85% Perpetuals + 15% Spot)
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Fee structure (broad assumption): ~0.02% fee on Perps + ~0.1% on Spot
Potential annual revenue:
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Perpetuals: 85% × $32.7B × 0.02% × 365 ≈ $20.3B in Perp fee revenue
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Spot: 15% × $32.7B × 0.1% × 365 ≈ $18B in Spot fee revenue
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Total: Perps + Spot = $38B in total fee revenue
If governance allocates 20% of CEX revenue to MNT buyback and burn:
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~$7.6B in annual buy pressure.
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At $1.15 per token, equivalent to buying ~660 million MNT annually (~20% of circulating supply).
Impact: This flow would drastically reduce effective float and could drive price appreciation similar to BNB/OKB.
3. On-chain TVL Metrics
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Assuming same MCAP / Bridged TVL ratio as BNB Chain (5.1x): $1.15 → $2.68 (~2.3x return)
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Assuming same MCAP / Stablecoin ratio as BNB Chain (10.5x): $1.15 → $1.54 (~1.4x return)
4. Further Scenario: Bybit grows to Binance’s scale, MNT market cap equals BNB’s
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Offers 30x upside potential.
Summary
Multiple valuation methods highlight MNT’s significant undervaluation relative to peers.
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Compared to BNB’s MCAP / Volume metric, MNT could reach $10.10, implying ~8.7x upside as Bybit and MNT integration matures.
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Compared to average exchange peer MCAP / Volume, MNT could reach $6.88, offering ~6x growth potential.
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Based on other standalone valuation metrics, MNT has potential for 2x–3x growth.
If all these catalysts materialize within the next year, MNT could achieve a target price range of $3.45 to $6.90.
Risks
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Execution risk: Buyback and burn not yet approved. Without it, MNT remains just a collateral/fee token.
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Dependence on Bybit: This thesis heavily relies on Bybit adoption catalysts. If volume stagnates or Bybit loses market share among centralized exchanges, MNT’s upside would be limited.
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Ecosystem stickiness: While Mantle L2 has $170M in TVL, it's still small versus BNB’s $7.5B. Stronger on-chain product adoption is needed to support the exchange token narrative.
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Competition: Other L2s (Base, Arbitrum) and exchanges (BNB, OKB, HYPE) may out-innovate, reducing market attention on Bybit and marginal buyers for MNT.
Invalidation Signals
Fundamentals
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MNT buyback and burn proposal fails to pass
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Bybit reduces focus on MNT integration or slows down MNT promotion
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Smaller allocation to buybacks than initially expected, or buybacks stall after launch
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Significant treasury dilution increasing circulating supply
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Any broader macro risk-off sentiment increasing supply pressure
Price
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Exit if price drops below $0.82
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This is a critical level, reverting MNT to pre-Bybit-announcement status and representing a resistance level MNT struggled to break throughout 2025
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Suggests market indifference or lack of conviction in deep Bybit-MNT integration
Conclusion
Mantle (MNT) stands at a pivotal moment in its token journey—seamlessly upgrading from a past L2 role to become Bybit’s core utility token. Higher collateral ratios, upcoming Q4 MNT fee discounts, the imminent OTC platform, and potential buyback-and-burn mechanics point to substantial structural demand and possible deflationary dynamics.
Despite risks such as execution delays, dependence on Bybit, and L2 competition, MNT’s valuation metrics clearly lag behind peers like BNB, OKB, CRO, and HYPE.
With no imminent token unlocks and the CeDeFi flywheel beginning to spin, MNT is an undervalued gem with 3x–6x upside potential over the next 6–12 months.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal, business, investment, or tax advice. Hashed currently holds or plans to invest in the mentioned assets. The information provided does not contain any material non-public information.
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