Huobi Growth Academy | Crypto Market Macro Research Report: China-US Economic and Trade Recovery and "Dual Rate Cuts" Coincide, Bitcoin Nears $100,000 Again, Web3 Ecosystem May Enter New Cycle
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Huobi Growth Academy | Crypto Market Macro Research Report: China-US Economic and Trade Recovery and "Dual Rate Cuts" Coincide, Bitcoin Nears $100,000 Again, Web3 Ecosystem May Enter New Cycle
Looking ahead to the second half of the year, investors should maintain clear judgment amid structural booms and follow a strategic logic that combines value-driven principles, policy guidance, and a safety bottom line in order to truly navigate through cycles and capture the core benefits of the next phase.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsExecutive Summary
In May 2025, the People's Bank of China announced a cut in reserve requirement ratios and policy rates, while advancing high-level China-U.S. economic talks, fostering optimism in the global economy. As a result, Bitcoin prices approached $100,000, significantly increasing market demand for crypto assets. The Web3 ecosystem is entering a new phase of development driven by both policy support and technological innovation. China’s monetary easing and New Hampshire’s formal passage of the “Bitcoin Reserve Act” in May 2025 have boosted confidence in Bitcoin as a potential global reserve asset and in the broader industry. Technologically, innovations such as zero-knowledge proofs and modular blockchains are providing strong support for real-world Web3 applications. Growing demand in use cases like cross-border payments and digital identity verification is further accelerating Web3 adoption. Overall, amid synchronized U.S.-China policy moves and shifting market sentiment, the crypto market is demonstrating robust growth momentum. Investors should closely monitor macroeconomic policies and technological developments to seize this historic opportunity.
1. Macro Background: Sino-U.S. Policy Alignment and Shifting Market Sentiment
In May 2025, the People's Bank of China announced a "dual rate cut" policy—reducing the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5 percentage points, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, and lowering the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points to 1.4%. This move not only profoundly impacts traditional financial markets but also creates strategic opportunities for the crypto and Web3 ecosystems. At the same time, positive expectations around high-level China-U.S. trade negotiations have further boosted global risk appetite.
1.1 China-U.S. Trade Recovery: A Strong Catalyst for Market Sentiment
The China-U.S. economic relationship remains a focal point for global markets. In recent years, uncertainty caused by trade tensions and tariffs led to reduced investor risk appetite. However, following the PBOC’s "dual rate cut," expectations for improved bilateral trade relations have surged, driving broad gains in risk assets—especially in the crypto market. The "dual cut" signals the start of a monetary easing cycle, offering renewed support for economic growth. This increased liquidity has reinvigorated investment in traditional assets such as equities and commodities. Concurrently, upcoming high-level trade talks—particularly between Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent—have strengthened optimism about future cooperation. These policy signals have reshaped investor sentiment and delivered substantial positive spillovers to the crypto market. The rising price of Bitcoin, approaching an all-time high near $100,000, reflects this shift in market psychology. Enhanced risk appetite has gradually increased institutional and retail acceptance of cryptocurrencies as alternative investments.
1.2 The "Dual Cut" and Global Liquidity
China’s "dual cut" carries significant global implications. By reducing the RRR and policy rates, the central bank injected ample liquidity into the market, releasing 1 trillion yuan. This monetary easing supports domestic recovery and could trigger shifts in global capital flows. Especially against a backdrop of persistent inflation and elevated unemployment risks in the U.S., China’s policy appears particularly attractive. Investors in global capital markets, especially across Asia, responded positively. With abundant liquidity released, global capital is actively seeking new investment avenues. Consequently, demand for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies from both traditional and crypto investors has surged. As “digital gold,” Bitcoin’s value proposition is amplified under global monetary easing, positioning it as a key tool for hedging inflation and currency depreciation.
The PBOC’s "dual cut" has not only spurred domestic recovery but also significantly lifted global risk appetite. Asian stock markets rallied, commodity prices for iron ore and steel continued to rise, and traditional investors increasingly turned to crypto markets for new opportunities. Given Bitcoin’s fixed supply and inflation-resistant properties, more capital now views it as a long-term store of value.
1.3 Fed Policy and Rate Cut Expectations
As global liquidity expands, the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory has become a critical market focus. Previously, persistently high U.S. inflation kept the Fed at elevated interest rates. However, recent data suggest that despite steady economic expansion, dual pressures from inflation and unemployment are complicating the Fed’s stance. Expectations for rate cuts have weakened, with markets widely anticipating a hold on current rates to avoid overheating. This diminished rate-cut outlook has directly contributed to a stronger dollar. Dollar appreciation has far-reaching effects on global capital flows, particularly in crypto markets. Despite a stronger dollar, demand for crypto assets has not declined—in fact, “digital gold” is regaining traction as a safe-haven asset. Amid Fed policy uncertainty, investors seek stable value storage, increasing demand for Bitcoin.
Additionally, the Fed’s direction influences regulatory expectations for crypto. As the possibility of looser monetary measures grows, so does anticipation for supportive crypto policies, especially given state-level legislation like Bitcoin reserve laws. Going forward, further regulatory easing by the U.S. government could usher in a broader era of institutional benefits for the crypto market.
1.4 Shifts in Market Sentiment and Investment Strategy
Overall, the convergence of Chinese and U.S. policies and the shift in market sentiment are having profound effects on global capital markets, particularly in crypto. With China’s "dual cut" and improving trade relations, global risk appetite has soared, leading to heightened investor optimism—especially in cryptocurrencies, where demand for risk assets like Bitcoin has surged. Bitcoin’s approach to $100,000 reflects strong market validation. Yet, investors must remain cautious about potential risks. Shifting global monetary policies, a strong dollar, and Fed uncertainty may introduce volatility into crypto markets. Therefore, investors should maintain flexible strategies, adopting a “core + satellite” portfolio approach—allocating Bitcoin as foundational “digital gold” while focusing on Web3 projects with real-world utility, particularly in cross-border payments and digital identity.
In sum, driven by Sino-U.S. policy alignment and shifting sentiment, the crypto and Web3 ecosystems are entering a new phase of growth. This macro environment not only elevates investor risk appetite but also lays the foundation for the future of crypto assets and blockchain technology.
2. Bitcoin Market Dynamics: Approaching $100,000
In 2025, Bitcoin has demonstrated strong upward momentum, repeatedly nearing the psychological threshold of $100,000, making it one of the year’s most notable assets. This rally is driven by a complex mix of factors: macroeconomic policy synergy, structural evolution within the crypto sector, and emotional and anticipatory dynamics. Amid widespread uncertainty in traditional finance, Bitcoin has reclaimed center stage in global capital markets. Behind its price surge lies concentrated demand for safe-haven assets, institutional adoption, regulatory recognition, and valuation restructuring.
From late 2024 through early 2025, Bitcoin benefited significantly from accommodative monetary policies across major economies. The synchronized dovish turn in Chinese and U.S. fiscal and monetary policies unleashed unprecedented liquidity. China’s two rounds of RRR and policy rate cuts boosted domestic risk appetite, while the Fed, under political pressure, paused rate hikes and signaled future cuts—leading to a weaker dollar and declining real yields, thereby raising the global asset “anchor.” In this context, Bitcoin, as a scarce, non-sovereign, consensus-backed digital asset, has re-emerged as both a “safe-haven currency” and a “growth asset.” It hedges against fiat devaluation while serving as a substitute in structural gaps within the monetary system.
A key difference from previous bull cycles is the dominant role of institutional investors. Major U.S. asset managers such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARK have launched Bitcoin spot ETFs, institutionalizing Bitcoin’s inclusion in portfolios. Meanwhile, financial products tied to crypto assets are expanding in Hong Kong, Dubai, and Europe, with improved regulatory clarity enabling compliant access for traditional capital. This influx of institutional-grade capital has deepened and stabilized the Bitcoin market, reducing its historical reliance on pure sentiment-driven volatility and lending the rally greater structural durability.
Supply-side scarcity continues to strengthen Bitcoin’s value proposition. The April 2024 halving reduced block rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, sharply limiting new supply. With Bitcoin’s inflation rate now below 1%—approaching that of gold—the narrative of Bitcoin as a “deflationary currency” is reinforced. On the demand side, exponential growth is fueled by ETF listings, central bank purchases, sovereign fund allocations, and rising global risk aversion. This asymmetric supply-demand dynamic forms the fundamental basis for sustained long-term price appreciation.
Notably, Bitcoin’s approach to $100,000 has been accompanied by sharp emotional swings and technical corrections. Whale accounts exhibit concentrated trading activity, especially near key price levels, with high-frequency algorithms and arbitrageurs creating short-term volatility. Some early holders are taking profits, while retail investors exhibit fear of high prices, triggering periodic pullbacks. Chain analytics from Glassnode show long-term holders reducing sell pressure, while new entrants cluster at higher prices—indicating a transition from early believers to mainstream adopters.
In media narratives, widespread coverage of Bitcoin nearing $100,000 has generated strong FOMO (fear of missing out), drawing in retail traders. However, this momentum also fuels classic “bubble expectations,” with signs of excessive speculation—particularly among highly leveraged traders—raising the risk of cascading liquidations at critical levels. While long-term fundamentals support new highs, near-term volatility remains likely, placing the market in a phase of intense negotiation between enthusiasm and risk.
Overall, Bitcoin’s approach to $100,000 reflects convergence between technical and policy forces, marking a leap in its global financial positioning. Within a macro framework of de-dollarization, resurgent risk aversion, and institutional inflows, Bitcoin has evolved beyond a speculative instrument into a strategic asset in global wealth redistribution. Although short-term corrections are possible, this rally appears less ephemeral and more indicative of a new consensus cycle. Investors must balance passion with prudence, recognizing that Bitcoin represents not just price, but a confluence of belief, institution, and era.
3. Web3 Ecosystem Development: Dual-Driven by Policy and Technology
With macro easing and continuous tech breakthroughs
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