TechFlow News: On February 17, according to JIN10 Data, the U.S. dollar rose modestly for the second consecutive trading day, entirely ignoring market pricing that implies roughly three Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Options markets indicate a recent easing of bearish sentiment toward the dollar; the so-called front-end risk reversal indicator has fallen to its lowest negative level in nearly a month. Money markets still anticipate approximately 64 basis points of Fed rate cuts by year-end. Some strategists consider this expectation excessive, as three rate cuts may exceed what is reasonably supported by economic data—potentially exposing markets to a dollar rebound. Elias Haddad, Global Head of Market Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, stated: “Expectations for Fed rate cuts appear somewhat overdone, creating room for near-term dollar strength.” He noted that the economy remains on solid footing and inflation has persistently remained above the Fed’s 2% target.
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