Frenzy, Panic, and Crash: Navigating 38 Years of Bull and Bear Markets—Volatility Is an Inevitable Path to Wealth
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Frenzy, Panic, and Crash: Navigating 38 Years of Bull and Bear Markets—Volatility Is an Inevitable Path to Wealth
During a long-term secular bull market, volatility is the “entry fee” one must pay, and true wealth often belongs to those “fools” who can overcome human instincts, steadfastly accumulate more during panic, and hold for the long term.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Raoul Pal
Compiled by: TechFlow
Original link:
https://x.com/RaoulGMI/status/2019541941663285274
TechFlow Intro: Amid recent extreme volatility in the crypto market, a veteran with 38 years of market experience—and 13 years deeply immersed in crypto—shares his personal journey. He has witnessed Bitcoin surge from $200 to $75,000, and endured countless drawdowns of 50% or even 80%. Through this piece, he delivers a core message to investors feeling despair and anger: within a long-term secular bull market, volatility is the “entry tax” you must pay—and true wealth often belongs to the so-called “fools” who overcome human instincts, hold firm during panic, and accumulate steadily for the long haul.
The market feels brutally harsh right now—hopeless, as if it’s all over. You missed your chance. You messed up again.
Everyone is angry and confused. Those who foresaw this may feel relieved—but many also recognize how deeply such price swings wound people. It feels like the worst of times.
I’ve been in markets for 38 years (today’s sell-off made for a decent birthday gift—coinciding perfectly with last night’s food poisoning!). I’ve seen every kind of crash and panic.
They all feel the same: absolutely awful.
I entered crypto in 2013—the first time I bought BTC was at $200.
It bounced briefly after my purchase—then plunged 75%… and that happened *during* a bull market, one that ultimately rose more than 10x above my entry price. I didn’t sell, because this was a long-term investment—I understood the risks.
Then, in the 2014 bear market, it crashed another 87%.
In the 2017 bull run, I suffered three brutal selloffs ranging from -35% to -45%… truly vicious. Amid the Bitcoin fork wars, I finally exited at $2,000—the prior high from 2013.
By then, my original investment had already returned 10x. Yet by year-end, it surged another 10x (!!), before launching into another long, ugly bear market.
I successfully avoided that entire bear phase—and felt fantastic.
But I made a costly mistake: to do the “right thing” (i.e., bottom-fish), I re-entered during the 2020 pandemic crash—at $6,500, more than 3.5x higher than my exit price.
In 2021, BTC fell 50% between April and July—a sentiment nearly identical to today’s. Twitter was toxic. Truly awful. Yet the market wasn’t as oversold then as it is today…
By November 2021, the market reclaimed its all-time high. SOL rebounded 13x from its lows; ETH doubled; BTC hit a new ATH, rising 150%.
I lived through all of it. Every heart-wrenching, gut-punch moment unfolded within a broader secular bull market.
My first entry was at $200. Today’s price is $65,000. In between, I even missed a 3.5x gain by trying (and failing badly) to time the market.
Key Lesson #1: (For me) With an asset in a secular uptrend, the best strategy is “non-action.” HODLing became a meme for good reason—it’s far more powerful than the so-called “four-year cycle” theory.
Key Lesson #2: Aggressively accumulate during selloffs. Even if I never perfectly timed the bottom, systematically averaging into weakness—increasing total position size during downturns—generated massive compounding effects over time, outperforming even dollar-cost averaging (DCA).
I don’t always have enough cash to buy big during every selloff—but I always buy something, because it trains your psychological resilience.
In moments like these, you’ll always feel like you missed the boat—that the bull market is gone forever, that everything is permanently broken. That is not true.
Ask yourself two questions:
- Will tomorrow be more digital than today?
- Will fiat currencies be worth less tomorrow than they are today?
If both answers are yes—keep going. Buy the dip (BTFD). Let “time in the market” beat “timing the market”—because time in the market always wins. Accumulating during sharp selloffs lowers your average cost basis on high-priced holdings, making an enormous difference.
Along this journey, stress, fear, and self-doubt are taxes you should expect to pay.
Position sizing is critical to your personal risk tolerance. Don’t worry—everyone feels overexposed on the way down and underexposed on the way up. You just need to manage those emotions and find your own equilibrium.
Another key point: Don’t “rent” other people’s beliefs. DYOR (“Do Your Own Research”) is a vital tenet. Without it, you won’t survive these trials. Belief must be earned—not borrowed. Rented belief is like leverage: it can blow you up anytime.
Remember—when you’re busy blaming others, you’re really only blaming yourself.
Yes, the world outside feels dark right now. But the sun will rise again soon. This is just another scar on your journey—as long as you avoid leverage! Leverage causes permanent capital loss, because it burns your chips in the casino. Never lose your chips.
When will this end? I don’t know—but I think it resembles the April–November 2021 episode: a panic *within* a bull market. I believe it will end soon. If I’m wrong, I won’t change my approach—I’ll simply keep accumulating when I have cash.
But your situation may differ. Try building a “minimum-regret portfolio.” Can you withstand another 50% drop from here? If not, reduce your position—even if it feels foolish right now. The right mindset is essential for survival. My mindset has shifted to “How do I buy more?”—yours may be the exact opposite.
There will always be some market timers who perfectly sidestep selloffs—or even short them. Yes, such people exist. But honestly, you just need to remind yourself: volatility is always expected. When you anticipate it, its arrival brings no stress—it becomes part of the story, not the whole story.
I’m now buying more digital art (which also increases my ETH exposure), and plan to raise my crypto allocation next week—as I’ve done every time opportunity knocked: during the pandemic selloff, in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and now in 2025. I’ll do it again. Each time, my P&L hits new highs ahead of the broader market. It works like magic. Once more… BTFD!
Wishing you all luck. It’s never easy.
Volatility is the price we pay for this kind of long-term, compounding return asset. Embrace it.
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