Memories Beyond Gold, Games Beyond Bits
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Memories Beyond Gold, Games Beyond Bits
Bitcoin is like a game created by a higher-dimensional lifeform. It toys with humanity using Bitcoin.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: lbq (@lbqquan)
Bitcoin represents a higher-dimensional construct—it is a test set by the designer of our "program," for humanity within this "system." Over an extended timeline, perhaps very few people will truly pass this test.
In the first phase, Bitcoin's price movements have almost no correlation with traditional financial markets;
In the second phase, it begins to become highly correlated with mainstream financial markets, gradually aligning with the dollar system;
In the third phase, Bitcoin will decouple again, and its correlation with the traditional world will approach zero.
Before Chinese New Year, I had a serious conversation with my father about this. I advised him to sell all his gold holdings and convert them into Bitcoin. He didn’t object—because I firmly believe that Bitcoin’s market cap will eventually surpass that of gold. At the time, gold’s market cap was around $20 trillion. Assuming Bitcoin’s total supply is 21 million (including permanently lost and dormant coins), when gold’s market cap grows beyond $30 trillion, Bitcoin reaching $1 million per coin would be merely a matter of time—this doesn't even factor in U.S. dollar depreciation or continued gold production.
Although Bitcoin’s gains continue to expand as I write this article, during the first quarter it underperformed compared to gold. Still, my judgment remains unchanged. Currently, Bitcoin is still in the second phase, maintaining a strong linkage with the dollar system—so there’s no need to rush. It is a “Trojan horse” gifted to the dollar system. Over time, Bitcoin’s self-sovereign financial nature will, just like its past episodes of extreme volatility, suddenly and violently tear apart the traditional world’s established pricing mechanisms.
In early 2018, I once imagined an extreme scenario: What if governments worldwide collectively banned Bitcoin-to-fiat exchanges? At that time, mainland China had already prohibited RMB trading with cryptocurrencies. At its peak, the RMB trading market accounted for over 90% of global Bitcoin volume. After being cracked down in 2017, the mining sector—which was later fully banned in 2021—still held more than half of the global market share.
Such governmental policies can cause significant short-term price volatility (and recently, they still do—only the actors have changed). However, the process of “delinking from the RMB” will inevitably happen to the U.S. dollar as well. One reason is that due to insufficient understanding, authorities resort to crude governance measures, attempting drastic disengagement. The other approach is conservative treatment—but failing to recognize that this phenomenon, much like cancer cells, will first silently infiltrate, gradually becoming part of the body (it was always part of the body), and then spread invasively. Ironically, regardless of the method, the outcome is inevitable—there is no choice.
Random thoughts from 2018
Initially, due to its small size, Bitcoin was essentially independent of traditional financial markets. This state resembled the saying: “At first, mountains are mountains, waters are waters; then, mountains are not mountains, waters are not waters.” But over time, especially under the influence of conventional worldly views, this “ownerless currency” gradually became contaminated. Particularly after the 2020 pandemic-driven monetary expansion bull run, this trend became increasingly evident. Many staunch decentralization believers even regarded it as a great humiliation—like being co-opted by the establishment. Yet I believe that was only a temporary act of submission.
This condition persisted for a long time. The U.S. went through two presidential elections and a series of policy shifts. Many early OGs gradually lost faith, let alone the newcomers just entering the space. However, this structure is now slowly coming to an end.
Over the past couple of days, Bitcoin’s price action has begun to gradually detach from Nasdaq’s influence. Although at present, Bitcoin hasn’t fully exited the second phase and remains strongly tied to the dollar, the recent short-term upward movement in Bitcoin’s price stems partly from expectations of dollar-depreciating policies during Trump’s potential administration, and partly from shifts in tariff policies.
In a sense, this short-term “independence from the Nasdaq” still originates from the strength or weakness of the U.S. dollar. But clearly, Bitcoin is slowly transitioning toward the third phase.
As for the final outcome, we might as well adopt the perspective of “taking a long-term view,” and wait patiently for the certainty that has already been “prophesied”:
——Bitcoin is like a game created by a higher-dimensional life form. It uses Bitcoin to toy with humanity. And at the end of this game, those who truly possess Bitcoin will, in fact, be very few.
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