Market confirms entry into bear cycle, BTC erases year-to-date gains, institutional funds see largest weekly outflow | Foresight Weekly Recap
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Market confirms entry into bear cycle, BTC erases year-to-date gains, institutional funds see largest weekly outflow | Foresight Weekly Recap
Risk-off sentiment in the U.S. stock market has intensified, with funds flowing out of tech stocks. The crypto market has entered a bear market.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsOriginal author: Foresight Ventures
1. Market Dynamics
A. Macro Liquidity
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Monetary liquidity is tightening. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut at the December meeting have declined in recent weeks, with implied probability now around 45%, down from 60% a week ago and far below 90% at the October meeting. A data blackout due to government shutdown has exacerbated policy divergence among officials. Several previously dovish officials stated last week they would oppose further rate cuts unless there's a deterioration in employment or improvement in inflation. Risk-off sentiment prevails in U.S. equities, with capital flowing out of tech stocks. The crypto market has entered a bear phase.
Key upcoming events:
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November 26, 2025: U.S. Q3 Real GDP Annualized QoQ (Revised)
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November 30, 2025: China Official Manufacturing PMI (November)
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December 5, 2025: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Change (November, in 10Ks)
B. Overall Market Performance
Top 300 Gainers by Market Cap:
BTC continued its downtrend this week, erasing all year-to-date gains. Altcoins broadly declined. Demand slowdown and valuation compression hit the U.S. public treasury DAT model, which had been the largest buyer of altcoins over the past six months. The market overall lacks clear catalysts.
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BTC: MicroStrategy may be removed from indices; BlackRock continues selling.
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ASTER: Leading perp on BNB Chain, repurchasing ~$1.7M daily, valued at 1/4 of HYPE, up 50% since CZ bought at 0.9.
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ZEC: A key catalyst for its recent revival is improved usability. With Zashi integrating NEAR Intents, users can now declare desired outcomes and execute non-custodial swaps and cross-chain operations using ZEC, significantly enhancing its utility beyond base chains.
C. On-Chain Data
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BTC short-term holder realized losses hit a two-year high, indicating peak panic selling—exceeding loss levels seen at the two previous cycle lows. Only about 5% of altcoin supply is in profit, while BTC’s proportion in profit is starting to drop sharply.
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Institutional outflows continue, recording the largest weekly outflow since February.
D. Spot Market
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Futures funding rates: Neutral at 0.01% this week. Rates between 0.05–0.1% indicate excessive long leverage, often signaling short-term market tops; rates between -0.1–0% suggest heavy short leverage, often marking short-term bottoms.
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Open interest: BTC open interest dropped sharply this week, indicating withdrawal by major players.
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Long/short ratio: 2.4, reflecting greedy sentiment. Retail sentiment often acts as a contrarian indicator—below 0.7 indicates fear, above 2.0 indicates greed. However, the ratio is highly volatile, weakening its reliability.
E. Stablecoin Market
Global Major Stablecoin Market Cap
Total stablecoin supply: $303.5B, down 0.5% WoW, declining for four consecutive weeks. In terms of market share, USDT accounts for 61%, USDC for 24%.
Circle launched StableFX, an FX settlement engine enabling atomic on-chain settlement to eliminate T+2 and cross-timezone delays, unlocking ~$27 trillion in dormant funds and building a programmable liquidity layer for FX markets.
Stablecoins Across Blockchains
USDT on ETH chain increased notably by 6% over the past 30 days, driven primarily by DeFi yield demands.
Block’s payment platform CashApp announced it will support stablecoins for its 58 million users by early 2026, with each user receiving a blockchain address—received stablecoins will be automatically converted to USD, and outgoing USD will be converted into stablecoins.
USDC on POL and BNB chains saw significant increases of 10% and 13% respectively over the past 30 days, mainly driven by demand from prediction markets.
JPMorgan launched JPM Coin on Base blockchain, leveraging bank credit and compliance systems to achieve 24/7 clearing efficiency.
Coinbase launched a regulated GBP savings account in the UK offering 3.75% APY, custodied by ClearBank with FSCS deposit insurance.
Where Are Stablecoins Mainly Deployed?
Over the past 30 days, OKX and MakerDAO saw notable growth in stablecoin deposits, primarily driven by on-chain DeFi yield demands.
Geographic Distribution of Stablecoin Usage
North America (37%), Europe (36%), and Asia (17%) remain dominant markets, with no significant changes in other regions.
2. Stablecoins & Payments
A. Stablecoin Project Updates
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Obex, crypto incubator, raises $37M to support yield-bearing stablecoin development led by Sky ecosystem
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According to CoinDesk, Obex, a crypto incubation platform, raised $37 million to support the development of yield-bearing stablecoins led by Framework Ventures, LayerZero, and the Sky ecosystem. The initiative aims to invest in and fund projects bringing real-world asset-backed strategies on-chain, introducing institutional-grade risk management and underwriting practices into the fast-growing sector.
Obex will become a new capital allocator for Sky, formerly MakerDAO, the entity behind DAI and USDS stablecoins, with a total market cap of $9 billion. Obex will provide funding to enable projects to scale using the protocol’s reserves and earn yield from its strategies. Teams passing risk and governance reviews may qualify for additional funding from Sky, which recently authorized up to $2.5 billion in USDS allocations to Obex projects via a governance vote.
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Circle launches interoperability infrastructure Circle xReserve
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Circle announced the launch of Circle xReserve, a new interoperability infrastructure allowing blockchain teams to deploy USDC-backed stablecoins fully interoperable with USDC. xReserve offers a certification service enabling developers and users to seamlessly transfer value between USDC-backed stablecoins and USDC across supported blockchains without relying on third-party cross-chain bridges. Circle confirmed partnerships with Canton and Stacks, both planning integration with xReserve in the coming weeks.
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B. Regulatory Developments
U.S.: Kraken and Grayscale file IPOs, Fidelity and Canary launch Solana spot ETFs
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Kraken confidentially files S-1 registration statement with SEC
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https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/19/kraken-confidentially-files-for-ipo-following-800-million-raise.html
https://blog.kraken.com/news/800-million-raise-to-advance-strategic-roadmap
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On November 19, Kraken announced it has submitted a draft S-1 registration statement to the U.S. SEC for a proposed public offering of common stock. The number of shares and price range have not yet been determined. The IPO is expected to proceed after SEC review, subject to market conditions and other factors.
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A Kraken spokesperson also confirmed a recent $800 million fundraising round valuing the company at $20 billion, led by Citadel Securities, Jane Street, HSG, Oppenheimer Alternative Investment Management, and Tribe Capital, co-founded by Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi. Last September, Kraken raised $600 million at a $15 billion valuation from investors including Jane Street, DRW, Sequoia China, Oppenheimer, Tribe Capital, and Arjun Sethi’s family office. Two rounds within less than two months, with a33% valuation increase.
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Fidelity and Canary launch Solana spot ETFs on NYSE and Nasdaq
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Fidelity Solana Fund (ticker: FSOL): Launched November 18, with a 0.25% management fee. The ETF tracks the Fidelity Solana Reference Index (FIDSOLP) and includes SOL staking yield.
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Canary Marinade Solana ETF (ticker: SOLC)
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Fidelity Solana Fund (FSOL) and Canary Marinade Solana ETF (SOLC) launched on NYSE and Nasdaq respectively, both supporting staking functionality.
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Grayscale officially files IPO application, plans listing on NYSE
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https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/11/13/crypto-asset-manager-grayscale-files-for-ipo-in-the-u-s
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Grayscale Investments formally filed an IPO application on November 13 to list its Class A common stock on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker "GRAY".
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The number of shares and price range are undetermined. Morgan Stanley, BofA Securities, Jefferies, and Cantor are lead underwriters. Wells Fargo Securities, Canaccord Genuity, Piper Sandler, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (a Stifel company), and Needham & Company are additional underwriters. Benchmark Company and Compass Point are co-underwriters.
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Asia: Hong Kong SFC urges licensed firms to detect and prevent potential layering transactions for money laundering, SGX to launch Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual futures, Japan considering new crypto regulations
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Hong Kong SFC urges licensed institutions to detect and prevent potential layering transactions used for money laundering
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https://apps.sfc.hk/edistributionWeb/gateway/TC/circular/aml/doc?refNo=25EC62
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The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) issued a circular urging licensed corporations and virtual asset trading platforms to remain vigilant against suspicious fund transfers showing signs oflayering transaction activities to prevent money laundering.
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The SFC noted an increasing trend of bad actors using licensed institutions for layering activities, attempting to disguise the source and destination of illicit funds from fraud and scams. Common red flags include frequent, rapid, and organized deposits into client accounts followed by immediate withdrawals in fiat or virtual assets. The SFC reiterated its strict expectations for licensed entities in detecting and preventing such activities.
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Singapore Exchange to launch Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual futures on November 24
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https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/sgx-to-launch-bitcoin-ethereum-perpetual-futures-on-nov-24
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Singapore Exchange announced it will launch Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual futures on November 24.
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The perpetual futures are available only to qualified institutional investors, priced and settled in USDT, with 24/7 trading, dynamic funding rate mechanism, and institutional-grade risk management framework.
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Japan considering new cryptocurrency regulations
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https://www.agenzianova.com/en/news/Japan-considers-introducing-new-cryptocurrency-regulations/
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According to Asahi Shimbun, sources revealed that Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) is considering regulations that would define cryptocurrencies asfinancial products subject to insider trading rules, andlower their profit tax rate. Profits from crypto trading would be taxed at20%, aligning with stock trading, down from the current maximum of 55%. The rule would apply to 105 currently circulating cryptos in Japan, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, and require exchanges to disclose risks like price volatility.
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Banks and insurers will be allowed to sell cryptocurrencies to depositors and policyholders through their securities subsidiaries.
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The FSAaims to pass legislation during next year’s regular Diet session.
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CSOP Hong Kong completes tokenized fund subscription under HKMA’s Ensemble project
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CSOP Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited completed a real-world use case for tokenized fund subscription under the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s Ensemble pilot program, collaborating with Bank of China (Hong Kong), Futu Securities, and Standard Chartered Hong Kong.
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This commercialpilot achieved end-to-end transaction flow: Futu initiated a cross-bank transfer of tokenized deposits from BOC HK to SCB HK, successfully subscribing to CSOP’s tokenized money market fund. The fund units were custodied by SCB HK, with settlementseamlessly completed within the HKMA’s Ensemble[TX] pilot environment.
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TheEnsemble project is now in pilot phase, aiming to promote trading between tokenized deposits and digital assets at fair value.
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Xingtailian ordered to suspend trading by HKEX, stock plunges 70%
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According to Caixin, Xingtailian (00399.HK), a crypto-themed stock, announced before market open on November 17, 2025, that it was ordered by HKEX to suspend trading on November 26 due to concerns over failure to meet ongoing listing requirements. The stock plunged 73% on November 17, closing at HK$0.064/share, down 91% from its July peak.
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HKEX stated under Listing Rule 13.24 that Xingtailianfailed to maintain sufficient operations and lacks assets of sufficient value to justify continued listing, hence the suspension effective November 26. Xingtailian responded it has decided to apply for a review by the Listing Committee.
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Earlier, inSeptember 2025, Navigator Bio-Pharma changed name to Xingtailian Group Limited, and signed an MOU with Starcoin Foundation on October 13, 2025, planning to issue Starcoin tokens. Shareholders will receive one Starcoin token for every ten existing shares held as of record date, deployed on Conflux eSpace public blockchain. The announcement notes the token issuance remains subject to further negotiation and is non-binding.
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Europe: Aave Labs subsidiary receives MiCAR CASP authorization, Czech National Bank becomes first central bank to buy Bitcoin
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Aave Labs subsidiary receives MiCAR-authorized Crypto Asset Service Provider (CASP) license
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https://aave.com/blog/aave-micar-approval
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Aave Labs announced its subsidiary Push received a Crypto Asset Service Provider (CASP) authorization from theCentral Bank of Ireland under MiCAR.
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Aave Labs will soon launch regulated, zero-interestdeposit and withdrawal channels for GHO and other stablecoins integrated into Aave Labs’ products across the European Economic Area (EEA) via its new Push service.
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Czech National Bank becomes first central bank to buy Bitcoin, creates $1M crypto test portfolio
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https://www.cnb.cz/en/cnb-news/press-releases/The-CNB-creates-a-test-portfolio-of-digital-assets/#:~:text=Through%20this%20USD%201%20million,tokenised%20deposit%20on%20the%20blockchain.
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According to CoinDesk, the Czech National Bank (CNB) announced the creation of a$1 million digital asset test portfolio including Bitcoin (BTC), USD stablecoins, and tokenized deposits.
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The pilot aims totest processes related to purchasing, holding, and managing blockchain-based assets. The bank plans to share insights over the next 2–3 years. It emphasized the total investment won’t be actively increased and that the purchase does not involve the bank’s existing foreign reserves.
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South America: Brazil considers taxing crypto use in international payments
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Sources: Brazil considering taxing crypto use in cross-border payments
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https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-eyes-taxing-crypto-cross-border-payments-sources-say-2025-11-18/https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/f3b28-brazil-tax-cross-border-crypto-payments
Reuters, citing two officials, reported Brazil is considering taxing the use of crypto in international payments. One source said the Finance Ministry is considering expanding thefinancial transaction tax to certaincross-border transfers using virtual assets and stablecoins, which the central bank has classified as foreign exchange transactions.
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Brazil’s Finance Ministry declined to comment to Reuters.
3. Funding Activity
4. Project Updates
Movemant——Infrastructure
On November 19, the Movement Foundation stated that four months after fulfilling its buyback commitment, it plans to transfer some tokens from the MOVE strategic reserve on Ethereum mainnet to the native Movement Network’s strategic reserve to improve transparency of the buyback wallet and support ecosystem projects and incentives. Movement added that it will continue sending ERC-20 tokens to exchanges periodically to replenish and rebalance token supply, thereby re-enabling withdrawal functionality.
Bio Protocol——DeSci
Bio Protocol announced on the 19th that Season 2 of BioXP will introduce a major upgrade, changing how users earn rewards within the Bio ecosystem. The new BioXP system requires users to stake BIO to generate veBIO in order to earn experience points (XP) through staking ecosystem tokens. Additionally, veBIO holders will automatically qualify for airdrops of new tokens. The new mechanism includes three multipliers: BIO staking multiplier, tier multiplier, and new token multiplier, enabling up to 10x returns. The first launchpad sale of Season 2 is imminent, and any BioXP held for over 14 days will be immediately invalidated.
Orderly——Infrastructure
Orderly Network launched a four-week UCC Trading Championship on the 19th with a $200,000 prize pool, with rewards distributed based on PnL rankings. Platforms participating include WOOFi, Aegis DEX, WHAT Exchange, SalsaDEX, ZoomerOracle, and Taiki DEX.
Users trading with Aegis stablecoin YUSD will receive additional eligibility for rewards equivalent to 0.3% of the total Aegis token supply. Kodiak added an extra $50,000 in rewards.
Morph——Infrastructure
On November 8, the Morph Foundation unveiled the latest allocation plan for its 220 million BGB holdings and officially introduced a new quarterly BGB burn mechanism. This mechanism directly ties BGB supply to actual usage of the Morph network, with burn size determined by ecosystem fees, average price, and community governance parameters. With the Viridian upgrade and support for EIP-7702, BGB will be usable for paying gas on the Morph network, becoming one of the ERC-20 tokens capable of serving as native gas on a Layer 2.
Zama——Infrastructure
Rand, founder of FHE cryptography firm Zama, stated on the 18th that Zama has launched Testnet v2. This version, intended as a candidate for the upcoming mainnet, includes all planned mainnet features, allowing users to build and deploy applications. The team is currently stress-testing Testnet v2 and will deploy a mainnet test version after multiple rounds of testing and feedback. Initially, the mainnet will run on Ethereum, with support for other chains rolling out陆续 in 2026.
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