Prediction Markets and BTC On-Chain Update: Polymarket Monthly Trading Volume Surpasses $3 Billion, BlackRock Accumulates 1 Million BTC
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Prediction Markets and BTC On-Chain Update: Polymarket Monthly Trading Volume Surpasses $3 Billion, BlackRock Accumulates 1 Million BTC
ETF issuers have accumulated 1 million bitcoins over 10 months, accounting for more than 5% of bitcoin's circulating supply.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: OurNetwork
Translation: TechFlow
This week was exceptionally eventful both on-chain and off-chain, primarily due to the U.S. presidential election. Throughout this process, crypto-backed prediction markets played a significant role in tracking the final election outcome. Notably, Polymarket saw billions of dollars in trading volume and gained widespread attention within political circles, having predicted the election result before mainstream news outlets reported it.
Therefore, before diving into our regular Bitcoin coverage, we’ve prepared a special report on prediction markets. As always, on-chain data and insights from OurNetwork’s top analyst team bring you a unique story.
Prediction Markets + Bitcoin Ecosystem
Polymarket | Ostium | Bitcoin ETFs | Rootstock | BOB
Polymarket
Polymarket Prediction Market Surpasses $3.11 Billion in Trading Volume Over 30 Days
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The decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket was highly active during the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Users placed bets on various outcomes, driving over $3.11 billion in trading volume in the past 30 days. Since late September, Polymarket’s trading volume has surged dramatically—from an initial daily volume of around $17 million to over $376 million on November 5 (Election Day), a 22-fold increase.
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Transaction analysis shows that 27% of trades were between $1,000 and $5,000, while another 25% ranged from $100 to $1,000, indicating strong retail participation. Additionally, over 20% of total trading volume came from transactions exceeding $20,000, highlighting the significant influence of major market participants.
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Polymarket reached a record high of 57,300 daily active users on November 5, a massive jump from fewer than 400 in early May. This surge, combined with a high return rate among previous users, indicates strong user engagement. On Election Day alone, a record 15,800 new wallets joined the platform.
Ostium
Kaledora Kiernan-Linn | Website | Dashboard
Ostium Trading Volume Exceeds $50 Million
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Ostium is making macroeconomics tradable. With just a wallet and 10 USDC, users can take long or short positions on perpetual contracts tied to assets ranging from forex and commodities to cryptocurrencies and stock indices. Over 65% of Ostium’s cumulative trading volume comes from real-world assets, with USD/JPY leading recent activity amid yen volatility and Bank of Japan interest rate decisions. Although CL/USD (oil) has lower trading volume, it ranks second in unique trades, accounting for over 20% of total platform transactions.
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Trading volume closely follows macroeconomic events related to each asset. In commodity markets—primarily oil—volume hit an all-time high on October 25 when Israel launched retaliatory strikes against Iran, sparking concerns about potential damage to Iranian oil fields and price impacts.
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Ostium recently launched its “Strategies” feature—a product built on its trading engine that allows traders to automate strategies based on prediction market data, such as “Go long on gold if TrumpWin probability exceeds 70%.” In the 10 days leading up to the election, traders created over 280 strategies on Ostium, including more than 100 on Election Night alone.
Ostium (internal)
Bitcoin ETFs
ETF Issuers Accumulate 1 Million BTC in 10 Months, Over 5% of Circulating Supply
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Grayscale was once the largest holder of Bitcoin ETFs, but due to ongoing monthly outflows, BlackRock has taken the lead. Within just 10 months, ETF issuers have increased their Bitcoin holdings from 600,000 to over 1 million BTC, representing more than 5% of the circulating supply. This sustained buying pressure has driven Bitcoin prices to new highs, reflecting strong institutional interest in Bitcoin.
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Daily net Bitcoin inflow data shows that issuers actively bought Bitcoin in the 30 days leading up to the U.S. election. Despite increasing sell pressure from Ark/21Shares and Bitwise—and a general rise in token prices post-election—BlackRock and Fidelity emerged as the biggest beneficiaries.
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Since the beginning of the year, despite price volatility, the proportion of Bitcoin held by issuers has steadily increased. ETF-driven demand has pushed up Bitcoin prices, and continued accumulation suggests these institutions may be pursuing long-term investment strategies.
Rootstock
Guilherme Wenceloski & Martin Benedikt Busch | Website | Dashboard
Rootstock TVL Grows 107% Yearly, Secured by 60% of Bitcoin’s Hashrate
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Rootstock is the leading DeFi Layer 2 solution on Bitcoin. Its innovative roadmap—including BitVMX and Union Bridge—and focus on interoperability are driving secure and scalable DeFi innovation. In Q4 2024, average Total Value Locked (TVL) reached $171 million, a 68% increase from Q4 2023. This growth is largely driven by partnerships with protocols like Sushi and Uniswap, along with rising demand for Bitcoin-based DeFi.
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In June, Rootstock introduced Sushiswap as a new partner and decentralized exchange, enriching its product offerings and driving significant month-over-month TVL growth. This partnership strengthened Rootstock’s DeFi capabilities, connecting Bitcoin to the broader DeFi ecosystem.
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Launched in September 2024, RootstockCollective is a new DAO designed to support developers and incentivize projects on Bitcoin. Through RootstockCollective, developers can receive funding and governance rights. As of November 6, 2024, 6,645,263 RIF tokens have been staked.
BOB
BOB Platform Breaks Summer Lull, Daily Trading Volume Jumps 27%
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Since launching on May 1, BOB’s daily active user count has steadily increased, peaking at 8,192 on June 4. However, throughout the summer, daily active users mostly remained between 3,000 and 3,500. This summer stagnation might have suggested waning interest in the concept of “DeFi on Bitcoin.” But the trend didn’t last—BOB’s daily active users have risen again, averaging 5,589 over the past month, bringing the platform’s total user count to 172,379.
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Similarly, BOB’s daily transaction volume hit a record high of 145,224 on May 27, then stabilized between 55,000 and 65,000 over the following three months. Recently, daily transaction activity broke this consolidation trend, with a four-week average reaching 74,033 transactions—an increase of approximately 27%.
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BOB’s Total Value Locked (TVL) currently stands slightly above $120 million, consisting of $68 million in WBTC, $24 million in ETH, $14 million in tBTC, and $8 million in eSOV.
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