How to determine whether a project's presale will succeed through data metrics?
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How to determine whether a project's presale will succeed through data metrics?
How to more accurately assess the probability of a project's success?
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsWritten by: Crypto Nova
Compiled by: TechFlow
In the cryptocurrency market, participating in a project's presale has become a common way to achieve high returns. However, predicting a project's true potential requires significant time and effort, involving multiple steps of analysis. Yet, crypto analyst Crypto Nova has a more efficient and effective two-step method for making such predictions.
This article will explore in depth the importance of these two steps and how to conduct the analysis, helping you more accurately assess a project’s probability of success.
Whenever you discover a new presale project, focus only on these two aspects:
• Social media engagement;
• Tokenomics;
Social Media Engagement
There is a strong correlation between social media engagement and a project’s performance upon launch. Strong attention on official social media channels serves as an indicator of market demand.
Strong engagement = Strong performance. (But beware of fake data.)
What you need is genuine interaction. In this space, it's common to see an account with 100k followers but only 10 likes per post… This means virtually no visibility—you're looking at fabricated data, bots purchased by the team.
It's easy to buy followers, easy to boost one post, but extremely difficult to fake consistent engagement across every post. Here’s an example:
An account with 40k followers should average 5k–10k views per post. A 100k follower account should generally get 10k–20k views per post. While these are averages and don't apply to every single post, you should expect total post views to represent 10%–20% of total followers.
Healthy numbers = Strong demand.
Tokenomics
Now that we’ve assessed whether sufficient demand exists, the next step is to determine the token vesting schedule. Demand can fluctuate—sometimes it persists, but often disappears after the presale. One advantage for the public is our token lock-up period.
You need to find out when you’ll gain full access to your tokens. Ideally, tokens should be fully unlocked at launch, or released monthly over no more than 6 months.
Finally, you must know your investment price. Some projects have wildly inflated valuation models:
• Token price: $0.12
• Total supply: 8 billion
• Market cap = Token price × Supply
• Market cap = $0.12 × 8 billion
Presale market cap reaches $960 million.
Conclusion
In reality, only two key indicators significantly impact presale performance:
• Social media engagement;
• Tokenomics (token release schedule and market cap);
Once you master these two aspects, identifying high-quality presale projects becomes effortless.
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