Will it rise or fall? How to determine the future price trend of $BLUR tokens?
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Will it rise or fall? How to determine the future price trend of $BLUR tokens?
Blur has just completed its first airdrop distribution. Will it experience a V-shaped reversal like previous airdrop tokens?
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsWritten by: degentrading
Translated by: TechFlow
Blur has just completed its first airdrop distribution. Will it follow the classic V-shaped rebound pattern seen in previous airdrops? Let's examine what crypto analysts are saying based on comparisons with similar market competitors:
Historically, airdropped tokens tend to move in a U-shape. Within 48 hours of listing, they usually sell off initially and then rebound to double their prior price. However, an important factor behind these past airdrops is that they occurred during bull markets, where ample liquidity and capital were available to absorb supply.
In contrast, during bear markets, we know that liquidity and capital are tight. We can clearly identify two main camps of buyers for BLUR:
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First are professional players who have mastered the airdrop game. They understand that tokens are typically dumped at launch, but once sufficient supply is absorbed, prices tend to rise. Therefore, their strategy is to buy in early and quickly sell out.
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The second group consists of fundamental buyers. These buyers "believe" in the project and conduct vertical comparisons within the sector. Still, they also analyze metrics—let’s compare some historical tokens:
- BLUR—currently sitting at a $264 million market cap and $2.2 billion FDV. We know significant trading volume has already been driven by the airdrop.
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LOOKS—currently at a $150 million market cap and $280 million FDV... By FDV, $LOOKS is nearly 10 times cheaper than BLUR...
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$X2Y2—$32 million market cap and $157 million FDV... even cheaper.
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- BLUR—currently sitting at a $264 million market cap and $2.2 billion FDV. We know significant trading volume has already been driven by the airdrop.
Based purely on valuation, it's difficult to justify a $2 billion FDV. Therefore, I expect most current demand for the token comes from the first type of traders.
However, if every trader’s primary strategy is to buy and dump at higher prices—who will be the ultimate buyer?
Given the poor liquidity in this bear market, I anticipate $BLUR will trade very differently from previous bull-market airdrops, and is highly unlikely to experience a second upward surge.
Finally, to those who want to talk about trading volume—don’t you realize that 99% of BLUR’s dollar volume is purely due to the airdrop? Before trading, understand what’s really happening in the current environment. But regardless, caution is advised.
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