Understanding the Hype Cycle of Emerging Technologies: How Will Cryptocurrency Evolve?
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Understanding the Hype Cycle of Emerging Technologies: How Will Cryptocurrency Evolve?
A downturn is not necessarily a bad period; more importantly, we should pay attention to the occurrence of recovery.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsWritten by: Shivsak
Translated by: TechFlow intern
Have you heard of the Gartner Hype Cycle? This curve serves as a benchmark in the technology industry and has gained widespread recognition. Below, I'll briefly introduce the five key stages that disruptive technologies typically go through.
Stage One: Technology Trigger — A potentially disruptive technology emerges.
Stage Two: Peak of Inflated Expectations — Early publicity generates significant hype around these unproven technologies.
During the speculative NFT bubble of 2021, Beeple sold his artwork "Everydays: The First 5000 Days" for $69 million. Similarly, NBA Top Shot generated hundreds of millions of dollars in sales from digital highlight clips—both representing peaks of inflated expectations.
Stage Three: Trough of Disillusionment — Early projects fail to deliver on promises, and public interest declines.
I suspect that cryptocurrency and NFTs are currently in this trough of disillusionment, with trading volume and number of transactions on OpenSea dropping 90–95% from their peak.
Stage Four: Slope of Enlightenment — The technology begins to demonstrate successful use cases and gains real adoption.
Stage Five: Plateau of Productivity — The technology achieves broad market application and strong product-market fit.
At this stage, we will see it become mainstream, with the technology becoming ubiquitous.
As an investor, I don't view the trough as a bad period. More importantly, we should pay attention to signs of recovery—instances where cryptocurrency is successfully applied and starts making an impact (even if only slightly).
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