Ethropy: DeFi/L1/Web3... Bold Predictions for the Crypto World in 2022
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
Ethropy: DeFi/L1/Web3... Bold Predictions for the Crypto World in 2022
The trend of employees leaving companies to work in Web3 and crypto-native roles (builders, DAOs, investors) is not a passing fad and will continue.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insights
Author: Adam
Translation: TechFlow Friends
Note: This is Adam, host of Ethropy, sharing his predictions for the 2022 crypto world, covering DeFi, L1, and Web3.
DeFi:
1) DeFi TVL will exceed $1 trillion
2) On-chain reputation will replace absurd "whitelist" processes for new protocols
3) Both Argent and Dharma will launch tokens, but announce them in advance to drive mainstream mobile DeFi adoption
4) UST will remain the top decentralized stablecoin, growing faster than USDT/USDC
5) Cross-chain bridge infrastructure will become a major growth area, built into DEXs, yield aggregators, money markets, and other key DApps
6) There will be nine-figure DeFi exploits, but total exploit numbers will be less than half of 2021's
7) Starting from 2021, most "metaverse" returns will resemble DeFi
8) Staked ETH derivatives will grow tenfold from 2021 levels (rETH, stETH, etc.) and become the second-largest form of DeFi collateral after ETH
9) Undercollateralized lending via KYC and credit underwriting will become an increasingly popular narrative. Aave ARC and Maple Finance are clear leaders, with Compound Treasury close behind
10) The largest USD-denominated airdrop will come from the ZKSync ecosystem. Zapper, Zerion, and DeBank will all conduct airdrops
11) NFTFi will be a significant narrative. Early adopters' NFTs can be exchanged for tokens, NFTs used for reputation/access gating (e.g., Yearn Blue Pill), and revenue-generating NFTs
12) A major CEX will partner with Rocket Pool for ETH staking to appear supportive of decentralization. The CEX will run nodes and onboard customers to rETH
Layer 1:
1) Cosmos app-chains will generate the most new wallets, highest returns, and TVL growth
2) The Ethereum merge will be delayed by at least two months, but will ultimately succeed like all previous hard forks
3) Ethereum fees will remain high, but a DApp will emerge that subsidizes gas costs through arbitrage or liquidity markets. Weiward is a solid first attempt, but others will follow
4) As smart contract layers capture more value, Bitcoin’s dominance will continue to decline
5) The multi-chain world will persist, and the scalability trilemma will remain a topic of discussion
6) Arbitrum and Optimism will launch tokens and developer/ecosystem incentives, surpassing 2021's top alternative L1s (Solana, Terra, Avalanche, Fantom)
7) Jack Dorsey will continue as a BTC maximalist and push forward DeFi on Bitcoin/lightning network by integrating elements into Block
8) DeFi on Bitcoin won’t gain widespread adoption; its TVL growth will lag behind top smart contract layers (ETH, BNB, SOL, LUNA, AVAX, ADA, DOT, MATIC, ALGO, NEAR)
9) Due to insufficient decentralization, a major Layer 1 blockchain (> $5B market cap) will suffer a 51% attack
Web3 Culture:
1) Due to the expanding multi-chain world, everyone will need an intern
2) The trend of employees leaving companies for Web3 and crypto-native roles (builders, DAOs, investors) is not a fad and will continue
3) A prominent figurehead in crypto will win a Nobel Prize
4) One of the big five tech companies (FAANG) will directly accept stablecoins as payment
5) Discord will advance MetaMask integration and become the preferred Web3 workspace
6) After Jack Dorsey leaves, Twitter will heavily rely on Web3
Macro:
1) At least five countries will adopt BTC as legal tender, likely in Latin America and Africa
2) A major bank will accept cryptocurrency as collateral
3) Michael Saylor and Nayib Bukele will buy more BTC
4) $COIN will outperform $JPM
5) During the 2022 midterm elections, multiple U.S. House and Senate candidates will accept cryptocurrency donations, with one issuing NFTs to contributors
6) As both buyers and sellers (shorts/longs) try to front-run the market, the surge in on-chain analytics will dampen volatility. Crypto growth will primarily depend on macroeconomic policy and behave as a high-beta asset relative to the S&P 500. If there is high inflation, rising interest rates, and accelerated tapering (hawkish Fed policy), crypto will enter a bear market. Conversely, dovish Fed policies favor crypto, where inflows/returns will outperform TradFi. The latter scenario—and sustained bull market—will unfold in 2022
7) A country will attempt to issue universal basic income (UBI) on a blockchain
TechFlow is a deep-content platform focused on alternative asset investment. Follow our official account for more insights, and add WeChat TechFlow01 to join the TechFlow community and participate in discussions.
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
AcedaBook
