Blockworks: Strategy 2026 — The Logic Behind Bitcoin Accumulation Has Changed
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Blockworks: Strategy 2026 — The Logic Behind Bitcoin Accumulation Has Changed
The conditions in 2026 are clearly weaker, making it difficult to continue large-scale purchases without worsening the Bitcoin-per-share metric.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Blockworks
Translated by: TechFlow
TechFlow Intro: Strategy holds nearly 680,000 bitcoins, but its financing model is undergoing a quiet shift—from zero-coupon convertible bonds in 2024 to high-cost preferred shares plus dilutive common stock issuance in 2026—diluting the amount of bitcoin per share. This article dissects the tangible impact of this structural change on BTC price—critically, Strategy’s bitcoin purchases are shifting from continuous to intermittent.
Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of Strategy | DAS 2025 New York Summit, photo by Mike Lawrence for Blockworks
Strategy has re-emerged as a visible treasury buyer in the Bitcoin market—but the financing backdrop has changed dramatically compared to 2024–2025.
At the end of last December, Strategy completed a fundraising round but deployed almost none of the proceeds into Bitcoin. Between December 29 and 31, the company sold 1,255,911 shares of MSTR, raising $195.9 million net, yet purchased only three bitcoins. Deployment resumed in January: from January 1 to 4, it sold another 735,000 shares, raising $116.3 million net, and bought 1,283 bitcoins at an average price of $90,391 per coin—spending $116 million—bringing its total holdings to 673,783 bitcoins.
A more critical signal lies in the shift in financing structure. From 2024 through early 2025, Strategy raised capital cheaply via convertible bonds—cash coupon rates ranged from 0.625% to 2.25%, followed by multiple zero-coupon convertible bond issuances. This approach worked best when MSTR traded at a premium to its Bitcoin net asset value (mNAV > 1), since the equity option embedded in the convertibles itself carried intrinsic appeal.
Zooming out over time, marginal buying pressure in 2025 has largely come from two sources: spot ETFs and Strategy. In cumulative accumulation charts, Strategy’s purchases over the full year have frequently matched the scale of ETF inflows—meaning its influence on price has, at times, rivaled that of the entire ETF cohort.
Conditions in 2026 are markedly weaker. As mNAV narrows, financing shifts toward double-digit-cost preferred shares and dilutive ATM common stock offerings—making it difficult for Strategy to continue large-scale Bitcoin purchases without worsening bitcoin-per-share metrics. Strategy remains a barometer of market sentiment, but its buying pressure will be more muted and intermittent; ETF flows and overall crypto market risk appetite will become more reliable drivers of price.
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