Breaking the kill threshold, long-term speculation has become the only choice for young people
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Breaking the kill threshold, long-term speculation has become the only choice for young people
When prediction markets and meme coins become the only way people seek a sense of control, this in itself is a symptom of societal dysfunction.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: sysls
Translation: Luffy, Foresight News
I'm not skilled at picking stocks. I believe in a broad-betting strategy with low win rates (≤53%), but I’m willing to bet everything on one idea: long-term speculation will be the dominant socioeconomic theme of the next century.
This also explains why people over 40 advise you to focus on your job and earn raises, while others ignore this advice entirely, chasing any opportunity that might bring sudden wealth.
The best product to sell this demographic is hope. Once you understand this, you’ll see why all kinds of casinos—including decentralized exchanges, prediction markets, and more—have surged in popularity, and why trading mentors, business gurus, paid courses, and of course Substack subscriptions thrive.
The Beginning of the Trap
You don’t need physical bars to be imprisoned. An entire generation today walks forward carrying invisible chains.
They know a certain kind of life exists: owning a home and car, living securely, rewarded after thirty years of hard work. They know some people live like this, yet they can't imagine how to get there themselves. It’s not even about difficulty—they simply cannot map out a feasible path from their current reality to that ideal life.
The traditional path to wealth accumulation has closed—not just become harder, but completely blocked. When Baby Boomers, making up 20% of the population, hold nearly 50% of national wealth, while Millennials make up the same share of the population but only 10% of the wealth, the systemic flaws become undeniable.
The ladder upward has been pulled away. This wasn’t necessarily intentional by the Boomers—rising asset prices naturally benefit asset holders. But regardless of intent, the outcome is the same.
The Collapse of the Traditional Contract
In the past, society’s implicit contract was simple: show up on time, work hard, stay loyal to your company, and you’d be rewarded. Companies provided pensions, seniority mattered, and homes appreciated while you slept. As long as you trusted the system, it worked for you.
Now, that contract is void.
Staying at one company for 20 years is no longer an asset—it's now a career liability. Wages rise by only 8%, while housing prices double, and young people’s debt burden surges by about 33%. Patience alone offers no path to wealth.
I once thought things were bad enough, but with the rise of artificial intelligence and its impending economic impact, I realize the situation will only worsen.
When systems stop rewarding patience, people naturally abandon it. That is rational adaptation.
Push and Pull Forces
Today, two forces are driving young people forward.
Pull: Unmet Higher-Order Needs
Modern society has largely solved the base layers of Maslow’s hierarchy. Food is cheap, basic housing is accessible, and while safety, healthcare, and basic employment aren’t guaranteed, most young people don’t struggle for survival.
Previous generations under economic pressure faced a different dilemma. When you’re worried about food, you don’t have the luxury of pondering life’s meaning. Working hard is the obvious choice—because failing to do so means going hungry. You accept a stable job and keep your head down because it’s your lifeline.
This generation, however, lacks that survival constraint.
Once basic needs are met, humans seek higher-order needs: belonging, respect, and self-actualization. They crave rich life experiences, purpose, direction, and meaning—anything but repetitive monotony. Yet the traditional paths to fulfill these needs—homeownership, career advancement, financial security—have all been blocked.
In essence, we’re like apes instinctively scratching at the wound of self-actualization, bleeding profusely, with no clue how to break free.
Push: Escalating Survival Anxiety
AI’s erosion of white-collar jobs is now common knowledge.
This anxiety isn’t unfounded. ChatGPT writes copy better than most junior marketers; Midjourney produces visuals far surpassing entry-level designers; Cursor and Claude generate code that passes review. Almost everyone acknowledges this, except those severely behind in skills.
Every month brings new test results showing AI matching or exceeding human performance in tasks once requiring advanced degrees and years of training.
White-collar workers—and those hoping to improve their finances—watch helplessly as their career shelf life shortens. Three years ago, “AI replacing knowledge workers” was a thought experiment; today, it’s a default assumption in corporate planning. The question now is not “if,” but “when,” and that timeline keeps accelerating.
Social media adds insult to injury, ensuring you’re perpetually dissatisfied with your current state.
The algorithm’s ultimate goal is to show you lives you could have had. Vacation spots you haven’t visited, apartments you can’t afford, lifestyles slightly above yours. No matter your life stage, someone else is living the dream—and algorithms deliver it straight to your feed.
Previous generations saw limited glimpses of others’ lives—neighbors, coworkers, or a few celebrities in magazines. Their reference frame was narrow. Today, it’s infinite. A 25-year-old earning $70,000 annually constantly sees peers making $2 million, living in Bali, working four hours a day. The bar for “good” keeps rising.
You can never catch up. No matter your achievements, social media highlights what you lack. The gap between your real and ideal life is algorithmically maintained—permanently unbridgeable.
On one side, AI shrinks career prospects; on the other, social media fuels perpetual dissatisfaction. The pressure to “escape while you still can” grows daily.
Anxiety is everywhere. Every white-collar worker has asked: “Can AI replace my job? When?” Most answers are bleak. Even if they feel temporarily safe, that window keeps shrinking.
Thus, this generation faces a dilemma: unable to afford traditional life milestones, yet convinced the old paths may vanish before they reach them. Betting everything while they still can becomes the most rational choice.
After all, why slave away for twenty years for a promotion that might not exist in ten?
The Maslow Trap
When you can survive but can’t move forward, something inside breaks. You’re not desperate enough to accept anything, yet barred from meaningful opportunities. Energy once used for survival turns into frustration, confusion, and a desperate search for any escape route.
Career advancement isn’t just about raises—it provides purpose, identity, and the satisfaction of feeling valuable. Financial security isn’t just money—it grants the courage to take risks, the freedom to travel, and the ability to create.
When these paths are blocked and the window to achieve them narrows, pressure demands release. These “prisoners” urgently need an exit—and they need it now.
Casinos: The Only Lifeline
I first noticed this in crypto’s public chain space, initially dismissing it as a passing trend. Then it appeared in NFTs, intensified in the chaos of perpetual contract DEXs, and now spreads to the so-called “prediction market supercycle.”
Young people unwilling to grind at one company for decades will spend months mastering crypto trading; they invest immense effort studying prediction markets, trying to decode what they believe is a rigged economy; those mocking traditional investing as an “insider game” will bet their rent on a meme coin.
Why?
Because casinos are the only place they feel in control. Here, their decisions might open doors to a better life within a timeframe they care about.
Traditional careers? Your boss gets promoted due to seniority, not skill, and your department could be automated tomorrow. Stock investing? Sure, you can earn 10% annually and buy a house in 47 years—if your job still exists.
But crypto? Prediction markets? Sports betting? Here, research matters, conviction pays off. Even if it’s just a perceived edge, it’s entirely theirs—no handouts, no dependence. In these arenas, their judgment directly determines outcomes.
Yes, casinos have a house edge, and most lose. I believe most actually understand this. Yet they participate anyway, unwilling to wait indefinitely for a future that may never come. Those telling them “stop gambling” fail to grasp the prisoners’ reality, often smugly citing “negative expected value.” My view: these gamblers know exactly what they’re doing.
Those saying “gambling is harmful, quit now” almost always come from privileged financial elites. They see exits and paths, so they preach the virtues of “playing by the rules.”
But for countless people trapped financially, gambling is salvation. To劝 them otherwise is to condemn them to eternal stagnation. That’s why they resist—why your well-meaning advice falls on deaf ears.
Cold Data: Reality Behind the Frenzy
What do the numbers say?
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Prediction Markets: In November 2025 alone, Polymarket and Kalshi together surpassed $10 billion in monthly volume, nearing $40 billion annually. In 2020, this figure was nearly zero—the growth curve is almost vertical.
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Sports Betting: Legal sports betting revenue soared from $248 million in 2017 to $13.7 billion in 2024. Millennials and Gen Z account for 76% of wagers, with their activity on online platforms up 7% year-on-year.
TransUnion defines these bettors as “speculators”: urban renters, frequent users of crypto apps, active on mobile trading platforms. Shut out from traditional wealth-building routes, these young people are placing last-resort bets in markets offering asymmetric returns.
Economic Theory Confirmed
When trapped, people’s risk preferences shift.
Economists call this “loss convexity utility”: when already in loss, people prefer to gamble—even with slim odds—rather than accept a small certain loss. This explains why blackjack players double down after losing, and why lotteries sell better in low-income neighborhoods.
To me, social media and higher-order needs create an illusion among those far from financial elite status: that they’re “already losing.” The baseline for breaking even has shifted entirely. This explains why someone might seriously claim “$150K annual income is the poverty line.” This generation gambles not to survive, but to truly live.
When basic needs are met but higher ones blocked, money shifts from “security” to “access”—a ticket to experience, freedom, and that elusive ideal life. A home is no longer shelter, but stability, community foundation, adulthood symbolized; travel isn’t luxury, but essential experience making life worthwhile.
For this generation, since traditional paths offer no hope of achieving these goals, the expected value of betting everything now exceeds that of grinding slowly. If your life baseline is “forever stuck,” then even a 5% chance of turning things around mathematically outweighs 100% certainty of stagnation.
This isn’t financial ignorance—it’s rational choice under constraint.
Meme coin speculators, sports bettors, prediction market regulars, subscribers to paid trading courses—all know the odds are against them. They also know they have no alternatives. When the choice is “certain doom” versus “probable doom with a sliver of hope,” anyone would pick the latter.
Long-Term Speculation
So, what should we bet on?
If I’m right, this generation of economically trapped youth will keep seeking control through high-volatility financial products. Thus, any sector fulfilling this demand warrants long-term positioning.
Platforms always win, regardless of user outcomes. Focus on those indifferent to bet results, profiting purely from transaction fees—whose activity is soaring.
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Entrepreneurship: The “escape the 9-to-5” industry is rapidly expanding. Tutorials on dropshipping, affiliate models, “$100K/month” blueprints. “Be your own boss” has become socially accepted “lottery”—it sounds proactive, empowering, as if building your own empire. Most entrepreneurs fail, but enthusiasm remains undimmed, much like lottery sales unaffected by low odds.
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Prediction Markets: Polymarket is valued at $8–10 billion. The sector’s total potential market is estimated to rival the entire gambling industry—over $1 trillion. Even with 90% exaggeration, it’s still massive.
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Crypto Infrastructure: custody, trading, staking, lending. Each speculative wave demands new entry points. Coinbase, Robinhood’s crypto arm, specialized exchanges—all profit from volume, regardless of market direction.
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Sports Betting Operators: DraftKings, FanDuel, and their infrastructure providers. Legal sports betting is rolling out across U.S. states, with regulatory barriers forming strong moats.
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Social Trading & Communities: Discord, X, Substack serving these users. Massive attention pools where people willingly pay for “exclusive insider insights.”
We’re not betting on individual gamblers’ wins or losses, but on the phenomenon’s persistence. The underlying economic conditions driving youth toward high-risk speculation won’t change easily. Fee-based platforms will grow in tandem with user numbers. Those trapped financially will keep betting, endlessly.
Given known trends—AI advancement, soaring housing costs, skewed wealth distribution, generational economic gaps—is this really temporary?
Moral Considerations
Let it be clear: my analysis is descriptive, not prescriptive.
It’s not celebratory to see a generation pinning financial hopes on various “lotteries.” When prediction markets and meme coins become the sole avenues for control, it signals societal dysfunction. The house always wins; most players lose everything.
But understanding this reality helps you position yourself. It lets you reflect, and decide whether to engage. If you enter, stay清醒—only bet where you have a real edge.
Every era’s casinos profit from despair. Today’s despair is real, documented, and intensifying. These casinos are hope merchants—Polymarket, Coinbase, DraftKings included. They’ll keep extracting fees, growing richer.
You can critique from a moral high ground, or choose to back these platforms. Ironically, the latter may be one of the few ways to escape the financial trap. Or, you can join the gamblers—but if so, you must excel.
Because this isn’t a game. We’re talking about your life. If you’re betting your life, you must do everything possible to maximize your odds.
Conclusion
Let me tell you a true story.
I know someone—very smart, works in tech, earns a highly respectable income by any historical standard. Last month, he invested $100,000 to farm points on a perpetual contract DEX. He didn’t do it because he thought it was a smart investment.
As he put it: “What else am I supposed to do? Save for twenty years to buy an apartment at 55?”
I know for sure: when the next DEX appears, he’ll bet again.
The age of long-term speculation has only just begun.
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