Last year's Shout Leader Murad: 116 reasons the bull market will come in 2026

2025.12.04

Last year's Shout Leader Murad: 116 reasons the bull market will come in 2026

I don't agree with the view that the market cycle is only four years; I believe this cycle could extend to four and a half or even five years, possibly lasting until 2026.

2025.12.04 - 10:25:01

Murad2026

Navigating Web3 tides with focused insights

I don't agree with the view that the market cycle is only four years; I believe this cycle could extend to four and a half or even five years, possibly lasting until 2026.

Compiled & Translated: TechFlow

Guest: Murad

Podcast Source: MustStopMurad

Original Title: 116 Reasons why Crypto BULL MARKET is NOT OVER

Air Date: November 27, 2025

Key Takeaways

Remember Murad, the top call-maker from the last cycle—the one who proposed the Meme super-cycle theory?

He’s back.

In this podcast, Murad shares 116 bullish reasons, data analyses, and on-chain signals indicating that the cryptocurrency bull market could continue into 2026.

Murad believes this market cycle may break the previous four-year pattern and last longer.

Highlights Summary

Bitcoin could experience parabolic growth in the future, reaching highs of $150,000 to $200,000.
ETF holders have extremely strong long-term confidence in Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin bull market is not over and will continue into 2026.
The stablecoin market is in a super-cycle.
Most recent selling has come from traders and short-term holders.
Disagrees with the idea that market cycles are strictly four years—this cycle may extend to four and a half or even five years, possibly lasting into 2026.
Clearing volume on the upside (shorts) significantly exceeds that on the downside (longs), with more short positions than long positions.
None of the 30 traditional Bitcoin cycle top signals have been triggered, meaning the market has not yet reached a top zone.
Market movements in 2025, including current price fluctuations, may just be a consolidation phase laying the foundation for the next rally.
The maximum pain points for Bitcoin options in late November and December are at $102,000 and $99,000 respectively—far above current market prices.
Bitcoin prices bottomed near the ETF cost basis range (approximately $79,000–$82,000), which also aligns with ETF realized prices.
Additionally, $80,200 (slightly below the recent low) is considered Bitcoin’s true market average price. Multiple price indicators overlap between $79,000 and $83,000, including ETF cost basis, realized price, and market average price. This convergence is typically seen as a support zone.
Further analysis of Bitcoin’s realized price distribution shows the $83,000–$85,000 range is also a key support/resistance flip zone.

Podcast Content

Analysis of Recent BTC Crash

The first question to answer is: Why did Bitcoin (BTC) plunge from $125,000 to $80,000?

First, investors adhering to the four-year cycle theory sold heavily, amplifying downward pressure. At the same time, the prolonged U.S. government shutdown exceeded market expectations, further increasing macroeconomic uncertainty. Due to the shutdown, funding stress emerged in the repo market, and minor stock market declines negatively impacted BTC prices.

In addition, some smaller digital reserve firms and early Bitcoin holders sold due to contagion effects. To a lesser extent, some so-called BTC whales expressed dissatisfaction with the latest BTC core update and engaged in “protest selling.” These factors collectively caused Bitcoin’s atypical rapid decline—from $125,000 to $80,000—over the past six weeks.

Nevertheless, I will prove through 116 reasons and charts that the Bitcoin bull market is not over and is expected to continue into 2026.

116 Reasons Supporting a BTC Bull Market Through 2026

Technical Analysis & Price Structure (TA)

The recent 36% drop is not unprecedented. Looking at all pullbacks in this cycle, this was the fastest, sharpest, and largest. But we saw a 32% retracement in early 2025 and a 33% pullback in mid-2024. These are roughly comparable to the current 36% drop. So relative to what's happened in this cycle so far, this isn’t abnormal.
A bullish hammer candle formed on the 3-day chart, typically a reversal pattern. We need to observe whether a bottom forms over the next few weeks, but this specific 3-day candlestick pattern is bullish.
We remain in a higher-low pattern. From a higher timeframe perspective, assuming the $80,005 low is a local bottom, BTC is technically still making higher lows.
BTC has just tested a two-week demand zone, essentially placing us at support.
On a monthly timeframe, we remain within a long-term ascending parallel channel. This channel began in 2023, and we’re still holding the diagonal support—essentially a bullish structure. This is a slow and steady bull cycle, but the structure remains intact.
On longer timeframes, there’s another ascending parallel channel on a logarithmic scale, with diagonal support dating back to 2013. The structure remains technically intact—we’ve just retested its lower boundary.
There’s another diagonal line that acted as resistance in early 2021, late 2021, and early 2024. We broke above it in late 2024, tested it as support in early 2025, and are now testing it again as support—possibly confirming another resistance-to-support flip.

Momentum & Oversold Indicators

Weekly RSI hasn't been this low since the FDX collapse. Previous instances of such low weekly RSI were during the 2018 bear market bottom, the COVID crash, and the 3AC/Luna collapse in mid-2022. We're currently around the same level as during COVID—basically the lowest weekly RSI since 2023. Matching these RSI levels with historical patterns shows they typically coincide with bear market bottoms or sharp crashes like COVID.
Daily RSI is at its lowest point in two and a half years, last seen in summer 2023. Historically, when BTC daily RSI falls below 21, future returns tend to be favorable.
Another indicator is distance from the Power Law, currently at “buy zone” levels.
If you connect the bottoms of all pullbacks in this cycle, it forms a perfect diagonal support. Someone predicted a bottom around $84K when price was at $95K—we ultimately bottomed around $80.5K.
BTC MACD on the 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day charts is at historic lows.
The past three times the 50-day MA crossed below the 200-day MA in this cycle, it turned out to be a great buying opportunity. Historically, this setup leads to positive returns over 60% of the time.
Interestingly, if you look at all past instances where BTC traded 3.5 standard deviations below its 200-day MA, the only prior occurrences were during the November 2018 bear market bottom and the March 2020 COVID crash.
If we look at 4 standard deviations below, this only happened once before—during the COVID crash. We hit similar levels on November 21, an event with less than 1% probability—indicating an extreme, fear-driven sell-off.
The LeaC indicator issued a buy signal on the 3-day chart—the first since the FTX collapse, typically occurring only during bear markets or bottoms.
Total crypto market cap is currently at its 200 EMA (exponential moving average).
Total crypto market cap is currently at both horizontal and diagonal support.

On-Chain Analysis & Capitulation Signs

Recent selling was not primarily from long-term holders or miners, but rather from traders and short-term holders.
The percentage of short-term holders in profit is at a five-year low, not seen this low since 2019.
Supply held by short-term holders is at an all-time low.
The realized profit-to-loss ratio for short-term holders is also at a five-year low, indicating full market capitulation, especially from short-term holders and traders.
SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) for short-term holders is beginning to enter a buy signal zone.
Realized losses are at their highest since the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in 2023—another sign of market capitulation.
Puell Multiple is at discount levels (ratio of current miner revenue to 365-day average), typically associated with intermediate bottoms.
Recent on-chain data shows we've experienced the largest exchange outflows in history. Reviewing the past four similar events, such capital flows typically mark the start of a bull market or end of a bear market. In the following weeks or months, markets often see significant bullish moves.
Moreover, the on-chain Realized Net Profit and Loss indicator has dropped to its lowest level since the FDX collapse, suggesting market sentiment may have bottomed, creating conditions for a potential rebound.
SOPR is preparing for an accumulation breakout. So far in this cycle, it hasn’t reached levels associated with global tops.
SOPR remains within abull marketcycle structure. Since 2023, this indicator has never entered typical bear market territory, consistently bouncing around the 1.0 level.

Stablecoins & Derivatives Markets

The stablecoin market is in a super-cycle, having expanded continuously over the past three years. This is a bullish signal, as growing stablecoin supply means more dry powder available for investors to buy Bitcoin and ETH on dips.
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) is currently at its widest gap since 2022, further indicating latent buying power.
The Stablecoin SSR oscillator has hit its lowest level since 2017.
Looking at Bitcoin positioning, Bitfinex BTCUSD long positions are currently in a buy zone, consistent with multiple intermediate bottoms during this cycle. Whales on Bitfinex are often seen as “smart money,” and historical data suggests they frequently time the market accurately.
Stablecoin market dominance is currently at levels matching Bitcoin bottoms in this cycle. Surges in USDT and USDC market share typically reflect investor fear. Historically, the past three times USDT and USDC dominance reached this level, the market was at an intermediate bottom.
In recent weeks, the market experienced the largest long liquidation event since the FTX collapse. This is typically seen as a “capitulation signal,” indicating leveraged long positions have been largely cleared.
In terms of liquidation distribution, clearing volume on the upside (shorts) clearly exceeds that on the downside (longs).
According to CoinGlass data, short positions currently outnumber long positions.
The long/short ratio reads 0.93, indicating extreme fear.

Whale Activity & Institutional Behavior

Rumors suggest an “OG” whale who sold $1.2 billion worth of BTC over the past few weeks has finally finished selling.
There are rumors Tether sent $1 billion directly from its treasury to a Bitfinex address, potentially to buy BTC.
Some funds suffered major losses on October 10. If they now need to sell Bitcoin or Ethereum, it would likely be forced rather than voluntary.
Bgeometrics Demand Index is in a buy zone (a tool measuring Bitcoin demand). The last time this occurred was September 2024, also an intermediate bottom.
Additionally, on-chain metrics NVT (Network Value to Transactions) and NVTS (NVT Signal) currently show severe oversold conditions, historically linked to intermediate bottoms.
Bitcoin sentiment indicator "Fear & Greed Index" has hit 10/100, the cycle low, indicating extreme fear.
Social media sentiment is extremely pessimistic, with many KOLs sharing deeply bearish Bitcoin charts on CT (CryptoTwitter).
YouTube is flooded with bearish market videos.
Massive numbers of bearish tweets, articles, and blog posts are emerging.
Reviewing Bitcoin’s traditional cycle top signals, none of the 30 have been triggered, meaning the market hasn’t reached a top zone.

Price Patterns & ETF Flows

Last week, the CME Bitcoin futures gap at $91,000 was successfully filled.
CME Ethereum futures gap at $2,800 has also been closed.
From a technical perspective, there's a pattern called “Domed House and Three Peaks,” typically seen as a corrective formation preceding a new bullish wave.
It's also argued that 2025’s market action, including current price volatility, may just be a range-bound consolidation phase setting up for the next rally. Another notable pattern is “Four Bases and Parabola,” with the market possibly halfway through the fourth base. If valid, Bitcoin could surge parabolically to $150,000–$200,000.
On Binance, the BTC-to-stablecoin reserve ratio is at an all-time low, seen as a strong bullish signal.
Historically, after the 2019 U.S. government shutdown ended, Bitcoin bottomed within 4 days. This year’s shutdown ended in mid-November. If the $80,500 low on November 21 is the bottom, it aligns closely with reopening +9 days.
In the Bitcoin options market, put buying dominates.
Put Skew continues rising, reflecting extreme fear. Put implied volatility (IV) is significantly higher than call IV.
Notably, this week marked a record volume week for IBIT (the largest Bitcoin ETF) put options.
Bitcoin options maximum pain points for late November and December are at $102,000 and $99,000—well above current prices.
ETH options maximum pain is at $4,300 in June next year.
November 21 was the highest volume day in IBIT history, reinforcing the capitulation thesis. Historically, capitulation coincides with peak volume—a rebalancing of buyer and seller forces.
Not only did IBIT hit record volume, but aggregating all BTC ETF volumes, it was also the highest single-day volume ever.
Bitcoin prices bottomed near the ETF cost basis range (~$79,000–$82,000), which matches ETF realized prices.
Additionally, $80,200 (slightly below the recent low) is considered Bitcoin’s true market average price. Multiple price metrics converge between $79,000 and $83,000—ETF cost basis, realized price, and market average price. This confluence is typically viewed as a support zone.
Further analysis of Bitcoin’s realized price distribution shows the $83,000–$85,000 range is also a key support/resistance flip zone. Thus, Bitcoin has a high likelihood of finding an intermediate bottom here.
November 21 was also the highest volume day ever for Hyperliquid BTC perpetual contracts. This mirrors ETF volume spikes, suggesting the market may have undergone an intermediate capitulation. Capitulation often marks exhaustion of sellers and the initial return of buyer demand.
Currently, 98% of ETF AUM (Assets Under Management) is held by diamond hands—designed for long-term holding, not short-term trading. Even after a 36% drawdown, 98% of ETF AUM remains unliquidated, showing extremely strong long-term conviction among ETF holders.
The proportion of Bitcoin supply held by ETFs continues to rise. Over the past two years, it’s grown from 3% to 7.1%, and could climb to 15%, 20%, or even 25%. This trend reflects Bitcoin’s “IPO moment”—early OGs gradually exiting while passive ETF inflows drive accumulation. Fiat systems hold vastly more currency than OGs hold Bitcoin. By definition, Bitcoin supply is finite, while fiat and ETF systems have nearly infinite capacity to buy Bitcoin.
Ethereum (ETH) shows a similar trend. Over recent years, the proportion of ETH held by ETFs has steadily increased, regardless of price volatility—reflecting institutional long-term bullishness on crypto assets.

Market Metrics Analysis

On November 21, Binance and Coinbase volume surpassed even October 10 levels, which was already extremely active—suggesting full capitulation may have occurred.
On Binance and Coinbase, Bitcoin order books showed a bullish bias for the first time in weeks—at least in the short term, similar to April 2025 when Bitcoin bottomed.
Funding rates turned negative for the first time in weeks, indicating persistent fear. Many investors are shorting, expecting further downside.
For several weeks, Bitcoin traded at a discount on Coinbase, pressuring prices. However, since November 21, sentiment has eased and prices normalized. Coinbase’s discount appears to have bottomed and is returning to neutral—another sign Bitcoin may be nearing an intermediate bottom.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s RSI versus gold has dropped to historic bear market lows. Similar divergences occurred during the 2020 COVID crisis, 2018 and 2015 global market bottoms, and the 3AC, Luna, and FTX collapses. If you believe the gap between Bitcoin and gold will eventually close, this supports a bullish case.
From open interest (OI) data, we’ve just experienced the largest cleanout of this cycle—OI dropped from $37B to $29B, the fastest adjustment since the FTX collapse.
For altcoins, OI saw massive liquidation on October 10—most asset bubbles have been popped.
DAT net asset value (mNav) has fallen back below or slightly above 1. I see this as a bullish signal—froth previously deemed speculative has been cleaned out.
Previously extreme valuations, like MSTR’s mNav, have now returned to FTX-collapse levels. Historically, these levels correlate with intermediate market bottoms.
Similarly, Metaplanet’s mNav dropped from 23 to 0.95. This correction signals market rationalization. Still, Meta Planet continues borrowing against its BTC holdings to buy more BTC—indicating residual buying demand.
Similarly, Ethereum’s mNav has seen a major reset, further proving bubbles have deflated. Currently, mNav below 1 isn’t a bearish reason. While some argue this could force DATs to sell BTC/ETH to repurchase shares, game theory suggests leading DATs know short-term trades harm long-term reputation. They prefer long-term holding to earn market credibility.
Bitcoin lending, though nascent, is growing under MSTR’s influence. I believe this trend will eventually grow parabolically, enabling MSTR to accumulate BTC more sustainably.
Bitcoin’s social risk metric is zero, indicating retail investors haven’t entered en masse. While some may say it’s due to lack of funds, I believe this explains why Bitcoin hasn’t gone parabolic yet. Historically, such moves are driven by retail influx—which we haven’t seen. This suggests this cycle is primarily driven by DATs and institutions. I believe retail will return in larger waves later—so holding tight now is wise.

Macroeconomic & Political Factors

Macro-wise, the Fed has begun cutting rates, despite inflation still above the 2% target. We must recognize this cycle’s low volatility and slow pace stem largely from extremely tight macro conditions, one of the most challenging macro backdrops in Bitcoin’s history—and a key reason for difficult market performance. This cycle started with 5.5% rates, still above 4% today—showing continued tightness. Past crypto cycles began with rates at 0%–2.5%, much looser. Even under such tight conditions, Bitcoin rose from $15K to $125K—an impressive feat.
The probability of a December rate cut has surged from 30% last week to 81%, typically bullish for risk assets like Bitcoin.
S&P 500 daily volume hit its highest level since April last week. Historically, such volume surges correlate with local or intermediate bottoms. This matters because ideally, equities should maintain momentum if Bitcoin is to rise further.
Likewise, Nasdaq 100 daily volume hit its highest since April. Multiple meetings on November 21 discussed this date as a potential intermediate bottom—such volume spikes typically precede market bottoms.
S&P 500 weekly volume is the third-highest since 2022.
Nasdaq 100 weekly volume is similarly the third-highest since 2022.
Nasdaq 100 found support at its 100-day MA, with a bullish MACD crossover.
S&P 500 put volume hit the second-highest level in history. Historical data shows this leads to positive price action 100% of the time within a month.
Last week, S&P 500 gapped up over 1% but closed negative. History shows this leads to price gains 86% of the time within three weeks to a month.
The market is in a unique environment. For the past four weeks, VIX has risen consecutively, yet S&P 500 remains within 5% of its all-time high. Historically, this scenario leads to price gains 80% of the time in six months and 93% in a year.
SPX RSI has dropped below 35 for the first time in seven months. History shows 93% chance of gains in three months, 85% in six, 78% in a year.
When SPX first drops below its 50-day MA, history shows 71% chance of gains at three, six, and nine months.
For Nasdaq, when McClellan Oscillator drops below 62 (a breadth indicator smoothing the difference between advancing and declining stocks), history shows prices typically rise within one week to a month.
AAI Bull-Bear Indicator is currently below -12. History shows the past three times this occurred, prices rose 100% of the time at two, three, six, nine months, and one year.
On November 21, SPXU (3x Inverse S&P 500 ETF) volume exceeded $1 billion. History shows each time this happens, prices rise within a month.
Last week, the proportion of oversold stocks rose significantly, typically tied to local or intermediate bottoms.
S&P 500 put/call ratio exceeded 0.7 for two consecutive days. History shows 100% chance of price gains within two months.
Bitcoin price is highly correlated with global M2 money supply growth. Historically, Bitcoin’s 2017 and 2021 rallies coincided with parabolic M2 growth. This cycle’s slower rise matches mild M2 expansion. If M2 growth accelerates, Bitcoin could see renewed rapid gains. Broadly, “market bubbles” tend to last longer than expected. Comparing current markets to 1920s boom, 1970s gold rush, Japanese asset bubble, and dot-com bubble—plus Nasdaq 100 performance since Oct 2022—shows substantial upside potential.
S&P 500 has never topped globally when ISM Manufacturing Index is below 50. Current ISM is ~48, leading many to speculate the business cycle may enter expansion, further boosting equities and risk assets like Bitcoin.
Regarding the Mega 7, current market action showsresistance flipping to support. Using Mega 7 as a barometer, no anomalies appear. Since 2015, multiple breakouts of prior highs were followed by 4-month support retests—currently repeating. So the market isn’t in anomaly or bear state—still healthy.
Bitcoin price correlates with year-over-year growth in global M2 money supply. Historically, 2017 and 2021 rallies were closely tied to parabolic M2 growth. This cycle’s gradual rise matches stable M2 trends. If M2 growth accelerates, Bitcoin and crypto could see renewed parabolic moves. Early signs suggest M2 momentum is building, but parabolic price growth hinges on accelerating M2.
If money supply keeps growing, Bitcoin prices may gradually catch up and rise further.
Dollar Index (DXY) is a key factor affecting crypto prices. DXY is now at a critical resistance zone that has served as resistance and support since 2015. From 2015–2020, it was mainly resistance; from 2022–2024, it acted as support multiple times. In early 2025, DXY broke below this zone and is now retesting it from below. Typically, when DXY hits resistance, it’s an ideal time to buy risk assets like crypto.
The Fed plans to end Quantitative Tightening (QT) in December 2025—a policy shift seen as bullish for risk assets including Bitcoin. Though not immediate, QE generally helps crypto prices, while QT often triggers bear markets. In 2013, Fed balance sheet expansion coincided with strong crypto performance; in 2018, contraction led to major crypto declines. In 2020–2021, rapid balance sheet expansion aligned with the Bitcoin bull run. In 2022, balance sheet reduction coincided with bear markets in stocks and crypto.
Many analysts predict some form of Quantitative Easing (QE) or stealth QE may return in 2026, with the Fed expanding its balance sheet again. Though likely smaller than post-pandemic scale, this is still seen as moderately positive. Historically, when the Fed announced QT, markets underwent a “QT-QE pivot washout.” Initially, Bitcoin fell, then found support around $6,000 (ignoring pandemic crash). As QT slowed and QE began, Bitcoin rallied.
One theory holds that a Fed announcement to stop QT could trigger a similar “QT-QE pivot washout.” Markets might first consolidate, then surge once some form of QE begins. This scenario could replay.
At a higher political level, the U.S. government is actively supporting Bitcoin, crypto, ETFs, and stablecoins. This may be the most crypto-friendly administration in history, and this policy environment is expected to persist, providing long-term tailwinds.
The Trump administration aims for economic growth to reduce debt, criticizing the Fed’s monetary policy as too tight—overall favoring looser policies.
Additionally, the Trump administration actively supports Artificial Intelligence (AI) development, treating it as a strategic national priority. For example, the U.S. launched the Genesis Mission—a plan to advance AI, comparable in importance and urgency to the Manhattan Project.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent has hinted in multiple interviews at easing bank regulations to boost lending to key industries. This could prepare for future rate cuts and further increase money supply. He emphasized relaxing bank rules and lowering capital requirements—views echoed by the OCC chairman.
The Trump administration is committed to lowering housing costs to release trillions in home equity into the economy. This is a key White House focus—turning vast wealth into economic activity.
The Trump family’s interests align closely with this policy. They have major investments in crypto, including Trump meme coins and DeFi projects.
The Trump administration is discussing issuing $2,000 stimulus checks to every American, especially low- and middle-income groups. Recalling 2020, $500–$600 checks clearly boosted asset prices. If implemented, $2,000 checks would significantly benefit asset prices, especially crypto. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this could take tax rebate form—but regardless of form, it would be highly market-positive.
China is taking steps to end years of deflationary pressure. Historically, high Chinese economic stress levels have been followed by monetary easing.
Japan announced a $135 billion economic stimulus package, potentially boosting global liquidity and asset prices.