Nansen CEO highlights: The "three-stage rule" of crypto narratives and investment opportunities
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Nansen CEO highlights: The "three-stage rule" of crypto narratives and investment opportunities
Identify the innovation, cloning, and industrialization stages.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: The Rollup
Compiler: Baicai Blockchain
In this in-depth interview, we speak with Alex Vanovic, co-founder and CEO of Nansen, to explore the future of on-chain analytics, the disruptive power of AI agents, and the grand vision of crypto's transition into the "real-world era."
Alex offers an exclusive look at how the Nansen mobile app leverages innovative AI agents to transform complex on-chain data into intuitive "agent experiences," enabling users to track "smart money" movements through conversations with an expert-like interface—and previews upcoming transaction execution capabilities.
Additionally, drawing from his role as one of Hyperliquid’s largest validators, he analyzes a three-stage model of crypto narratives—from "innovation" to "industrial overproduction"—boldly predicting that stablecoins and RWAs (real-world assets) will relegate today’s crypto market to what future generations may call the "toy world era." He also shares unique insights on over-financialization and Balaji’s concept of "network states." Get ready to stand at the forefront of data science and see the future map of crypto unfold.
1. The Nansen Mobile App and AI Agents
Host: Alright, let’s dive in. The Nansen mobile app is now live in the app stores! Can you explain why it's being called the best “agent experience” in crypto? What can it do for users?
Alex Vanovic: Absolutely! One major issue we’ve always faced is that users find our product hard to use—unsure which dashboard or metric to look at. So we asked: what if we imagined what investing would look like in 2030, and just built that now? For many software products, traditional UIs might be disappearing. In the future, you may just talk to an AI agent.
After downloading the app, beyond tracking your portfolio, the cool part is having an AI agent that understands your portfolio and has access to all on-chain transaction data. This means you can ask things like: “What meme coins has smart money bought on Solana or Base in the past 30 minutes?” It retrieves real-time data and gives you answers within seconds.
You can choose between quick mode or expert mode. I can even paste a transaction hash, and it analyzes the user behavior for me. It’s a completely new way to navigate blockchain.
Host: That’s very intuitive. You can ask various questions about smart money movements across different timeframes. Eventually, I imagine saying directly: “Just handle it for me! You know my risk tolerance and trading preferences—go execute these trades.”
Alex Vanovic: I love that you went straight there because that’s exactly where we’re headed! The next step is clearly enabling users to execute trades directly within the app—likely by November.
I think once users have experienced this agent-based trading multiple times, they’ll begin to trust it, and eventually think: “Why don’t I just give it an overall strategy and let it act, while I monitor and review?” It’s a bit like Tesla’s autonomous driving roadmap—building trust over years of usage.
Host: I feel this is like “ambient trading” or “ambient programming.” Have you tested prototypes with trade execution internally? How does it feel?
Alex Vanovic: Way more fun than clicking dashboards or watching price charts! It’s smoother, more engaging. AI excels at simplifying complex processes, removing friction, so you can focus on what you actually want to do.
Now our app can already generate personalized preset prompts on the homepage once you input addresses you want to track. For example, if your portfolio goes up, a card on the homepage might ask: “Why did Pangu (example) go up today?” You don’t even need to think about what to ask—we’ve prepared the prompts for you.
Host: As emotional beings influenced by sentiment and FOMO, it’s hard to calmly assess our own trading or investment performance. But with this app, you could ask: “What was my best trade? What mistakes did I make? Are there patterns in my errors?” That’s incredibly valuable.
Alex Vanovic: Completely agree! With this app, you can clearly see your trading performance, identify error patterns, and analyze calmly. It’s not only practical but also makes the whole process more enjoyable and intuitive.
Host: Right? Will you add more memory features in the future? Letting the agent understand more, like why I made a certain trade or what my overall goals are?
Alex Vanovic: Yes, we want to add more memory functionality—similar to ChatGPT or Grok’s memory files—so the agent becomes more personalized and useful. Users’ reasons for trades or overall strategies can be stored, making the agent increasingly intelligent and its assistance more precise.
2. Hyperliquid Validator and the Three Stages of Crypto Narratives
Host: Okay, Alex, I’d like to shift topics. Nansen is one of the largest validators on Hyperliquid. What’s it like running a validator at such scale? What challenges and controversies have you encountered?
Alex Vanovic: Yes, aside from the foundation, we’re the largest validator on Hyperliquid. We started running validators for Ronin about a year ago and found it interesting—it aligns us closely with community incentives. We acquired a small startup, Stake With Us, and now stake over $2 billion in assets, growing more than 30x in a year.
We quickly integrated with Hyperliquid and decided to co-operate a validator with Hyperco. We handle the technical side, while Hyperco has deep ecosystem knowledge and played a key role in USDH governance voting.
Host: Speaking of that vote, wasn’t there some controversy?
Alex Vanovic: Yes, I’d like to clarify some misconceptions. Some believed the outcome was predetermined, but at least for us, it wasn’t. We thoroughly reviewed all proposals, spoke with every bidder, and spent significant time analyzing. Internally, we had a scoring system and encouraged more people to submit proposals. Ultimately, the committee chose to abstain, leaving the decision entirely to stakers. The result was very close, with Paxos coming in right behind.
Host: Now that Native Markets has staked and locked 200,000 HYPE, a new era has begun. Many stablecoin issuers have said they’ll continue launching products on Hyperliquid—is this what you hoped to see?
Alex Vanovic: Exactly what I wanted to see! Players like Paxos and Athena are excellent—you want them building within the ecosystem. Beyond token symbols themselves, I believe these stablecoins will perform well.
Host: As one of the largest validators, what do you see as Hyperliquid’s next phase?
Alex Vanovic: It’s hard to say—the Hyperliquid ecosystem is so rich! I believe all crypto narratives or innovations follow a three-stage process:
Innovation: Hyperliquid was the innovator in full-stack derivatives trading.
Cloning: Variants based on similar concepts emerge.
Industrial Overproduction: Someone figures out how to mass-produce these clones.
Take meme coins: Dogecoin was the innovator, Pepe the clone, and Pump.fun became the factory that minted 84 million meme coins.
Interestingly, Hyperliquid has a project called Based, which built a WordPress-like tool for Hyperliquid—allowing users to deploy their own frontends while keeping the backend on Hyperliquid. It’s a clever model. Industrial overproduction might mean a wave of Hyperliquid frontends, which would actually benefit Hyperliquid.
Host: You mention this—I wonder who the winners will be? Will Hyperliquid continue leading?
Alex Vanovic: That’s a critical question. Innovators can indeed be overtaken, but Hyperliquid’s unique advantages lie in its technology and community. If industrial overproduction means a flood of Hyperliquid-based frontends, it remains the core infrastructure—hard to fully replace. Still, competition will be fierce, and the future will be fascinating.
Host: This makes me think of Tether as the innovator in stablecoins, then USDC and others as clones, and now we’re in the industrial phase. Do you think categories like stablecoins are already oversaturated, or are some areas still early?
Alex Vanovic: Stablecoins themselves are still early—they have clear product-market fit. I believe we could see trillions, even tens of trillions of dollars in stablecoins minted in the coming years.
The Paxos example is interesting—they offered white-label stablecoins like BN USD until Gary Gensler (SEC Chair) shut them down. **They somehow “lost” many text messages and emails—that’s outrageous.** A multi-billion-dollar business destroyed overnight. Seriously, someone should investigate this properly.
3. Real-World Assets On-Chain and Over-Financialization
Host: Regarding stablecoins’ impact on the on-chain economy, can you zoom out a bit further?
Alex Vanovic: Stablecoins are an example of traditional financial assets going on-chain, but the dollar isn’t the only asset that should. In the coming years, securities, stocks, real estate—all will go on-chain, making today’s crypto market look tiny in comparison. The current crypto market is still very small.
I’ve said before that when we look back at crypto history in 2040 or 2050, this current phase will likely be called the **“toy world era.”** We’ve created many speculative, experimental tokens.
But the upcoming “real-world era” will bring 100,000x or even 1 million x more value on-chain. For example, why can’t Nansen’s equity go on-chain? If young people could buy just 1% ownership of a property and gradually accumulate, that changes everything. Blockchain mechanisms make asset collateralization much simpler.
Host: You mentioned lending markets and protocols like Aave being major beneficiaries of more value going on-chain—that’s interesting.
Alex Vanovic: Yes, if you own Google stock or real estate, you’d want to collateralize it to borrow—that’s convenient. The core of blockchain mechanics is enabling asset collateralization and making borrowing more efficient. I believe Layer 1 assets, some Layer 2 assets, and protocols like Aave—clear beneficiaries of value going on-chain—are solid investments.
Host: As we bring more assets on-chain, I want to ask about over-financialization. What are your thoughts on over-financialization?
Alex Vanovic: I lean more toward Milton Friedman’s view: if people own things, they take better care of them. I believe it’s beneficial for people to own assets. We should strive to create a world where billions can become owners in some form, rather than the World Economic Forum’s narrative of “you will own nothing and be happy.”
Collateralization is fascinating because it could lead to a split between hard and soft assets. You can keep hard assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum in DeFi “banks,” and when you need to spend, you borrow against them. Currently, such products are mainly available to the wealthy via wealth management services, but DeFi opens them to everyone. That’s exciting.
4. The Network State Concept
Host: You mentioned people owning networks or assets—that’s central to Balaji’s idea of network states. I know you visited his border school for network states; can you share your experience there?
Alex Vanovic: It was a great experience. I attended a founder-to-founder event. The school is still early, but I’m very bullish on Balaji’s build. I loved the futuristic vibe—felt like everyone was co-building the future. Being around other builders created an atmosphere where anything felt possible.
Host: What aspect of the network state concept appeals to you most?
Alex Vanovic: I grew up in Norway. After moving abroad, I found stronger connections through crypto communities—in a sense, it became my primary community, where I feel belonging. But crypto isn’t a nation; it’s hard to feel patriotic toward it. Balaji is trying to turn that sense of belonging into something more concrete, and I think many people resonate with that.
Maybe in a few years we’ll all have network state passports! Following him is driven by curiosity—to see how his vision ultimately unfolds. His vision strongly aligns with our current era.
Host: Alex, thank you for joining us! You have a macro-level perspective on this industry, connecting the dots—your insights are incredibly valuable.
Alex Vanovic: Thank you for having me! Great to be here.
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