Dual-engine ignition: Loose monetary policy meets institutional FOMO—Is the market entering a major upward wave?
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Dual-engine ignition: Loose monetary policy meets institutional FOMO—Is the market entering a major upward wave?
Long-term investors are advised to gradually establish positions on dips: if the market pulls back to key support levels, consider buying high-quality assets in batches.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Hotcoin Research
Crypto Market Performance
Currently, the total cryptocurrency market cap stands at $4.11 trillion, with BTC accounting for 56.91% ($2.34 trillion). The stablecoin market cap is $290.7 billion, up 1.47% over the past seven days. This marks the first weekly decline in three months, with USDT holding a 58.9% share.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have risen while a minority declined: ASTER surged 558.56% over seven days, IMX rose 61.74%, M increased by 31.85%, AVNT jumped 285.91%, and DRIFT gained 52.16%.
This week, net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs were $886.7 million; net inflows into U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs were $557.2 million.
Market Outlook (September 22–26):
The current RSI reading is 47.89, indicating neutrality. The Fear & Greed Index stands at 49 (neutral), while notably, the Altseason Index has reached 86 (up from last week), entering the FOMO zone.
BTC core range: $113,400–120,000
ETH core range: $4,438–4,956
SOL core range: $217–260
For short-term traders, recommendations:
Monitor key levels: closely watch the support and resistance levels above. A break below support (e.g., BTC $113,400, ETH $4,438, SOL $217) warrants caution regarding short-term pullback risks. A strong breakout above resistance (e.g., BTC $117,000, SOL $250) could open further upside potential.
Manage risk: always set stop-losses. After rate cuts and periods of overbought conditions, pullbacks are common. Short-term volatility is high—avoid blindly chasing price moves.
For long-term investors, recommendations:
Dollar-cost average on dips: if the market pulls back to key support levels (e.g., BTC near $115,000, ETH in the $4,060–$4,438 range, SOL near $217), consider gradually accumulating quality assets.
Stay patient: long-term investing isn't about short-term fluctuations. Ignore market noise and stick to a consistent investment or hold strategy.
Understanding the Present
Weekly Recap
1. SEC approves multi-asset crypto ETFs: This marks the first U.S. ETF covering multiple major cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, ETH, XRP, SOL, ADA). More importantly, the SEC simultaneously shortened the ETF approval review period significantly—from 240 days down to 75 days. This means future crypto ETF listings will accelerate dramatically, paving the way for more similar products and offering traditional financial markets easier access to crypto investments—a major long-term positive;
2. Forward Industries raises massive funding to boost SOL holdings: The Nasdaq-listed company plans to raise $4 billion via share issuance, primarily to increase its Solana (SOL) token holdings. This is not its first major purchase—previously, it acquired $1.58 billion worth of SOL. This reflects strong confidence and strategic positioning by traditional public companies in specific crypto assets, potentially drawing more institutional attention to SOL;
3. Coinbase discloses user data breach: The incident exposed sensitive information—including names, addresses, ID documents, and bank accounts—for 69,461 users. Notably, the breach did not result from a hack on Coinbase’s systems, but from hackers bribing an outsourced customer service employee in India;
4. On September 15, Native Markets won the Hyperliquid stablecoin USDH auction and was granted the right to use the USDH ticker on Hyperliquid;
5. On September 19, PayPal's dollar-pegged stablecoin PYUSD expanded cross-chain to the Aptos blockchain via LayerZero, further strengthening its stablecoin ecosystem.
Macroeconomic Developments
1. On September 18, according to CME's "Fed Watch" tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October stood at 87.7%, with a 12.3% chance of unchanged rates;
2. On September 18, Hong Kong's Monetary Authority lowered its base rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, following the Fed's overnight 25-basis-point cut;
3. On September 18, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, in line with market expectations, resuming its easing cycle paused since December last year;
4. On September 17, the Bank of Canada announced a 25-basis-point cut to its overnight rate target, bringing it to 2.50%, as expected;
5. On September 18, initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 13 came in at 231,000, below the forecast of 240,000; the prior week's figure was revised upward from 263,000 to 264,000.
ETFs
Data shows that between September 15 and 19, net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs totaled $886.7 million. As of September 19, GBTC (Grayscale) has seen cumulative outflows of $24.034 billion and currently holds $20.421 billion in assets, while IBIT (BlackRock) holds $88.093 billion. The total market cap of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs is $152.49 billion.
Net inflows into U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs: $557.2 million.
Looking Ahead
Event Calendar
1. Korea Blockchain Week 2025 will take place in South Korea from September 22 to 28;
2. ETHGlobal New Delhi will be held in New Delhi, India, from September 26 to 28, 2025;
3. TON Dev Bootcamp will be hosted in Macau on September 27 from 13:00–18:00. This developer-focused Web3 launch day will cover Telegram mini-app development and TON smart contracts, taught entirely by the official TON team, with insights shared by professors from Macau University of Science and Technology;
4. TOKEN2049 Singapore 2025 will be held in Singapore on October 1–2, 2025.
Project Updates
1. OSL Group will be included in the FTSE Asia Pacific Small Cap Index, effective September 22;
2. Coinbase will launch index futures trading on September 22, combining Nvidia and BlackRock's Bitcoin ETFs. This index blends leading tech stocks with BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, equally weighted across 10 components: Coinbase itself, Apple, Microsoft, Google’s parent Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla—each constituting 10% of the index;
3. Falcon Finance, DWF Labs’ stablecoin project, plans a community public sale of FF tokens on BuidlPad from September 22 to 23, targeting $4 million in fundraising;
4. Huma Finance’s Season 1 Airdrop Part 2 begins on September 26 at 21:00, with claim deadline on October 26 at 21:00.
Key Events
1. On September 25 at 20:30, the U.S. will release the number of initial jobless claims (in thousands) for the week ending September 20;
2. On September 26 at 20:30, the U.S. will publish the annual core PCE price index for August.
Token Unlocks
1. Venom (VENOM) will unlock 59.27 million tokens on September 25, valued at approximately $8.95 million, representing 2.28% of circulating supply;
2. Jupiter (JUP) will unlock 53.47 million tokens on September 28, valued at around $28.22 million, accounting for 1.75% of circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for your investment success. Through our "Weekly Insights" and "Deep Dive Reports," we help you understand market dynamics. Our exclusive column "Top Pick Coins" (powered by AI and expert dual-screening) identifies promising assets and reduces trial-and-error costs. Each week, our analysts also host live streams to discuss hot topics and forecast trends. We believe that warm, informed guidance can empower more investors to navigate market cycles and seize value opportunities in Web3.
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