Hotcoin Research Market Insights | U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Data Misses Expectations: Beware of August Crypto Market Pullback Risks
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Hotcoin Research Market Insights | U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Data Misses Expectations: Beware of August Crypto Market Pullback Risks
Expecting two rate cuts within the year, but need to be cautious about market correction risks in August.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsCryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.7 trillion, with BTC accounting for 61.2% at $2.26 trillion.The stablecoin market cap is $266.9 billion, up 0.65% over the past seven days, with USDT representing 61.67%.
CoinMarketCap's top 200 projects show a few gaining while most decline: TON rose 13.64% over seven days, ZORA increased by 40.39%, ZBCN gained 26.02%, USELESS dropped 31.66%, and FARTCOIN fell 31.79%.
This week, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $642.9 million; U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $155 million.
Market Outlook (August 4 - August 8):
Stablecoins experienced minor issuance increases this week, U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs continued to see net inflows, but Bitcoin spot ETFs had significant net outflows, leading to some pullback in altcoins. The RSI index stands at 36, indicating weakness. The Fear & Greed Index is at 54 (lower than last week).
On August 1, U.S. non-farm payroll data missed expectations significantly, with July job growth far below forecast, increasing the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to 77.7%. Two rate cuts are expected within the year, though market correction risks in August should be monitored.
BTC: If it falls below $115,000, it may test $112,000 support; a breakout above $120,000 targets $125,000.
ETH: Support at $3,500, upside target $4,000.
Understanding the Present
Reviewing This Week's Major Events
1. On July 29, Bloomberg reported that Coinbase is in advanced talks to acquire Indian crypto exchange CoinDCX;
2. On July 31, according to strategicethreserve data, three companies—Bitmine, Sharplink Gaming, and The Ether Machine—each hold more ETH than the Ethereum Foundation;
3. On July 31, Stable raised $28 million in seed funding led by Bitfinex and Hack VC;
4. On August 1, Coinbase plans to add tokenized stocks, prediction markets, and early token sales to become an "all-in-one trading platform";
5. On August 1, Reuters reported that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has launched Project Crypto to modernize securities regulations and enable on-chain transformation of U.S. financial markets;
6. Ethereum ETFs have seen net inflows for 20 consecutive days, totaling $5.4 billion—a record;
7. SEC approves physical redemption mechanism for ETFs, allowing direct conversion between BTC/ETH and ETF shares;
8. Trump’s tariff policy took effect on August 1; market attention focuses on capital flows in emerging markets.
Macroeconomics
1. On July 31, the Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without change, in line with market expectations;
2. On July 31, the Federal Reserve held rates steady for the fifth consecutive time, maintaining the benchmark rate at 4.25%-4.50%, as expected;
3. On August 1, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised May’s non-farm payrolls from 144,000 to 19,000 and June’s from 147,000 to 14,000;
4. On August 1, the U.S. seasonally adjusted non-farm employment change for July was 73,000, below the 110,000 forecast.
ETF
According to statistics from July 28 to August 1,U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced net outflows of $642.9 million; as of August 1, GBTC (Grayscale) has had cumulative outflows of $23.665 billion, currently holding $20.503 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) holds $83.781 billion. The total market cap of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $147.994 billion.
U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs saw net inflows of $155 million.
Anticipating the Future
Event Preview
1. The Vietnam Blockchain and AI Summit CONVICTION 2025 will be held in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, on August 9–10, 2025;
2. Coinfest Asia 2025 will take place in Bali, Indonesia, on August 21–22;
3. WebX Asia 2025 will be held in Tokyo, Japan, on August 25–26, 2025;
4. Bitcoin Asia 2025 will be hosted at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre from August 28 to 29.
Key Events
1. At 19:00 on August 7, the UK will release its central bank interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report;
2. At 20:30 on August 7, the U.S. will release initial jobless claims (in thousands) for the week ending August 2;
3. At 20:30 on August 8, Canada will release July employment figures (in thousands);
4. Brazilian lawmakers are preparing to debate a new cryptocurrency tax proposal from President Lula, which would impose a flat 17.5% fee on all transactions. Compared to the old system, it removes income tax exemptions for small-scale trading and targets decentralized finance activities under a temporary measure effective since June. The deadline for approval is October 8; otherwise, the measure will expire.
Token Unlocks
1. IOTA (IOTA) will unlock 8.63 million tokens on August 5, worth approximately $1.56 million, representing 0.22% of circulating supply;
2. EIGEN (EigenLayer) will unlock 1.29 million tokens on August 6, valued at around $1.43 million, or 0.41% of circulating supply;
3. IMX (Immutable) will unlock 24.52 million tokens on August 8, worth about $12.31 million, or 1.3% of circulating supply;
4. MOVE (Movement) will unlock 50 million tokens on August 9, valued at approximately $6.51 million, or 1.92% of circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, the core research arm of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for investors. Through our “Weekly Insights” and “In-Depth Reports,” we dissect market trends. With our exclusive feature “Top Picks” (powered by AI and expert screening), we help identify high-potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Each week, our analysts host live streams to discuss hot topics and forecast trends. We believe that warm, consistent support combined with expert guidance empowers more investors to navigate market cycles and seize value opportunities in Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and inherently risky. We strongly advise investors to fully understand these risks and invest only within a strict risk management framework to ensure capital safety.
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