Crypto bull market quietly unfolding
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
Crypto bull market quietly unfolding
There are few opportunities left for retail investors.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Ada, TechFlow
"The bull market is here, but why is everyone so quiet in the groups?" Netizen Tongxin Cheese raised the question in the Opensky community group.
"Because they're holding empty positions and short positions," replied group member Niner.
For Niner, who has experienced the previous bull and bear cycle, this bull market should have also been a great opportunity to make substantial profits. But Niner admitted that in this market, he "hasn't made any money either."
Johnny, a full-time trader, is another similar case. He said, "I haven't made any money since Trump launched Trump."
There are many others like Niner and Johnny. Mark, partner at Wagmi Capital, said in an interview that "90% of retail investors aren't making money in this bull market."
Although Niner hasn't made money yet, he has timely adjusted his investment strategy. "In the last cycle, I mainly just held ('diamond-handed'), but this time I focus on swing trading. And because many new things keep emerging, I need to constantly learn—everything moves much faster now."
Niner's adjustment was relatively quick, but most people remain slow to react.
"The investment logic this cycle is completely different from before, but most retail investors haven't realized it yet," said KOL Hippo in an interview.
With institutional capital flooding into the crypto market, major cryptocurrencies repeatedly hitting new all-time highs, and increasing acceptance and participation in technology and narratives, this is no longer a "retail-friendly" market. Some believe the era of favorable returns for retail investors in crypto is coming to an end, and this could be the last cycle for retail participants.
Based on this, TechFlow interviewed several deep participants in the cryptocurrency market—including well-known KOLs, private equity fund partners, quantitative traders, and individual investors—to analyze this bull market from their respective perspectives, aiming to present a diversified portrait of the crypto landscape.
A Different Crypto Bull Market
Hippo, who entered the crypto space in 2016, is very familiar with the cryptocurrency market. During the interview, he spoke clearly and confidently, calmly sharing his observations: "This is no longer a broad-based rising market. If previous bull markets were driven by consensus, this one has taken a completely different path due to policy shifts, capital flows, and factional divisions."
Hippo has a military background and previously worked in commercial real estate investment before moving into crypto. These experiences shaped his bold yet cautious investment style. After going through multiple market cycles, he said, "What I've always been thinking about is: what are the truly valuable elements in this industry? What assets can actually survive both bull and bear markets?"
If the market wasn't clear enough before, this cycle has gradually led Hippo to find answers.
"After much reflection, I now realize this industry is essentially financial internet—whether it’s lending, trading, staking, or current hot topics like tokenized U.S. stocks and stablecoins. At its core, everything revolves around finance and requires robust financial infrastructure and systems," Hippo said. "Based on this understanding, I believe Ethereum still has huge potential, so I'm now primarily investing in Ethereum and DeFi assets."
In Hippo’s view, this bull market began when BlackRock officially passed its Bitcoin ETF, went through a brief correction, then entered its second phase after the U.S. passed the Great Beauty Act, and is expected to peak in November.
But Mark holds a different opinion.
He believes the surge in Memecoins in the second half of last year marked the beginning of this cycle—the first half of the bull market. The second half started two weeks ago with Ethereum's rise, sparking a new wave of momentum. He expects the market to reach its peak around September.
"In 2017 it was ICO mania, then altcoin mania—but this time it's clearly different. People have become disillusioned; many concepts and stories have already been proven false. Only financial applications remain. So even though Ethereum has surged, it hasn’t reached its previous all-time high yet, and altcoins have seen only localized gains," Mark said.
Chenghua, another seasoned market veteran and a quant trader, runs his own quant trading studio focused on arbitrage in crypto.
Early in this cycle, Chenghua noticed something different: in past cycles, retail capital dominated, and small-cap coins surged aggressively. This time, however, more mainstream capital flowed in, primarily toward major coins like Bitcoin.
Still, he got "washed out." Although he still holds some Bitcoin, he sold most of it shortly after Bitcoin broke $100,000, and rotated out of Ethereum during its steepest drop, missing its subsequent rebound. Even as an industry veteran, precisely timing the market remains extremely difficult for retail investors.
Where Are Retail Investors’ Opportunities?
The most direct feeling this bull market gives full-time trader Johnny is: "Too many tokens, no innovation in gameplay, insufficient liquidity—retail investors are finding it harder and harder to profit."
During the last bull run, Johnny entered the crypto world riding the Dogecoin hype fueled by Elon Musk, and made a fortune during the broad market rally. "Back then, I didn’t even know what a candlestick chart was, but I still made money," Johnny recalled.
But those good days are gone.
"Previous investment strategies no longer apply this cycle," Johnny said. "Before, I liked to just hold ('diamond-hand') or blindly follow others' calls. Now I need to build my own trading system."
Even so, "the upside potential for low-cap 'shitcoins' isn’t as big as before. Market capital and technical barriers are rising, and profit potential is weakening," Johnny added.
So why is it hard for retail investors to profit in this bull market, and where do their opportunities lie?
According to Mark, there are two main reasons why retail investors struggle to make money this cycle.
First, most retail investors haven’t shifted from the previous cycle’s investment logic—they’re still mainly holding altcoins instead of major cryptocurrencies.
Second is frequent position switching. "Chasing pumps and panic selling is typical retail behavior—and the biggest enemy of profitability," Mark said.
Mark believes the main opportunities this cycle lie in major cryptocurrencies and Memecoins. But recently, as liquidity improves, he’s spotted a new trend: "New tokens listed on Binance lately have seen multi-fold gains, unlike before when they often dropped 50% immediately." So he adjusted his strategy—keeping most funds in Ethereum while allocating a small portion to chase new listings, aiming for high returns with low capital exposure.
"But honestly, opportunities for retail investors are dwindling," Mark said pessimistically. He believes the future crypto market will resemble the U.S. stock market, with institutional capital dominating major cryptocurrencies, leaving only the Memecoin market for retail. However, profiting in the Memecoin space requires intelligence, time, and energy—filters that will eliminate many unqualified investors. Only about 10% are likely to succeed.
Hippo agrees with Mark but believes beyond major coins and Memecoins, investors should also watch tokens tied to trading-related projects.
Projects centered around trading serve real utility and are unavoidable in the market. Because they’re essential, they’re more likely to survive and gain consensus.
"For retail investors, the first thing to adjust might be their mindset—abandoning dreams of getting rich overnight," Hippo said. "We may no longer see altcoins multiplying 10x or 100x, but opportunities in major coins still exist—each cycle may offer 3–5x gains. Then there’s Memecoin: every cycle brings new viral tokens, and buying the truly iconic ones will definitely yield solid returns."
In the previous cycle, there were also low-barrier, low-risk, retail-friendly earning opportunities such as initial offerings and inscriptions. This cycle, such opportunities are scarce.
"Either go the quant trading route like me—yes, there’s a barrier, but risk is relatively low," Chenghua said. "Actually, I think Bitcoin remains a relatively fair opportunity for everyone—it just depends on whether you can seize it. Dollar-cost averaging is a strategy I find relatively easy to execute. Over a long enough timeframe, you’ll likely achieve decent returns."
Is the Retail Crypto Golden Age Disappearing?
In fact, during the last cycle, as some institutional capital entered, people already speculated it might be retail’s final crypto cycle.
While retail investors are still participating this time, the market has become even more institutionalized.
Bitcoin spot ETF total AUM reached $137.4 billion in July 2025, with over 400 institutions—including pension funds and sovereign wealth funds—investing in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF.
Global public companies now hold 944,000 BTC, accounting for 4.8% of circulating supply, adding approximately 131,000 BTC per quarter.
Coinbase, Binance, and other platforms have seen explosive growth in ETH liquid staking derivatives (LSD) products, with institutions packaging ETH yield as fixed-income instruments.
All these figures indicate the crypto market is no longer a playground for retail狂欢.
Media reports described the $120,000 Bitcoin milestone as "a capital feast without retail." On that day, "there were no viral social media posts about overnight millionaires—only BlackRock’s silent, relentless ETF purchase orders rolling in at 13 per second."
This scene perfectly matches Mark’s expectations. "I think the golden age for retail investors making money is over. It felt like last year’s second half might have been the final window," he said.
Indeed, he has already cashed out part of his profits and shifted some investments into China’s A-shares.
"But I won’t fully exit. I believe Memecoin opportunities will persist, and new things will keep emerging," Mark plans.
In contrast, Niner remains optimistic. She says she’ll stay in the market because she feels "big-money opportunities are increasingly shifting toward retail."
"People have been saying this is the last cycle for a long time. But I think the wild growth phase is over—now is exactly when good opportunities emerge," Niner said. "I won’t leave. I want to become a true Alpha player."
Hippo shares a similarly positive outlook. He believes the market is evolving toward greater order and regulation, which for retail means lower risk and higher potential returns.
"As institutional capital enters, simply following major coin investments can still generate solid returns. Most importantly, the market has become more predictable, and risks have significantly decreased," Hippo said. "During cycle lows, Bitcoin might drop 50%–70%, but during bull markets it can multiply several times. As long as you time it right and manage expectations, investing in Bitcoin and other major coins might be the easiest profitable strategy for retail investors."
For Hippo, who has深耕d nine years in crypto, his relationship with the market is like "fish and water"—"I’ve become completely comfortable navigating it and never considered leaving. And I believe opportunities for retail investors will always exist."
Perhaps, whether optimists or pessimists, anyone who has spent time in this market finds it hard to walk away easily. What truly matters isn’t whether the market offers opportunities, but having the ability to learn quickly, eyes to spot them, and the execution power to seize them.
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