Elon Musk's new move: X and Polymarket collaborate—what markets will passively benefit from the traffic boom?
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Elon Musk's new move: X and Polymarket collaborate—what markets will passively benefit from the traffic boom?
What is the significance of the collaboration between X and Polymarket? Which ecosystem projects stand to benefit directly?
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: KarenZ, Foresight News
On June 6, X officially announced a partnership with Polymarket, making the latter its official prediction market partner. Dubbed by Polymarket as "a new chapter in the internet's pursuit of truth," this collaboration marks a deep integration between on-chain prediction markets and mainstream social platforms, driving a transformation in information dissemination mechanisms toward a market-driven model through the dual forces of "attention economics" and "financialized gaming."
As Polymarket stated, "The next information era will not be dominated by 20th-century media giants, but driven by markets. The news of the future will center on truth, be grounded in transparency, and anchored in reality."
The collaboration between X and Polymarket did not happen overnight. Ahead of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Polymarket consistently showed higher odds for Trump’s victory compared to traditional polls and media forecasts. Elon Musk himself retweeted data one month before the 2024 U.S. election stating, “Trump leads with 51% on Polymarket,” commenting, “Because real money is at stake, this figure is more accurate than traditional polling.” Polymarket gained significant recognition for accurately predicting Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with particularly precise forecasts in key swing states, rapidly establishing itself as a leading force in the prediction market space.
Notably, in late May, Bloomberg reported that “another prediction market, Kalshi Inc., hired Donald Trump Jr. (the eldest son of Donald Trump) as a strategic advisor and is collaborating with Musk’s AI company xAI to provide customized information guiding users’ betting on its website.” In a dramatic twist, just one day after Musk and Trump publicly fell out, X swiftly entered into a partnership with Polymarket—this striking timeline coincidence has sparked widespread speculation within the industry. It should be noted that Polymarket has been deemed illegally operated in the U.S. by the CFTC due to its failure to register as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) or Swap Execution Facility (SEF). It was fined $1.4 million in 2022 and required to block U.S. users. Ongoing investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and FBI in 2024 further highlight its regulatory challenges.
Polymarket & X Partnership Details
Shayne Coplan, Founder and CEO of Polymarket, said: “Combining Polymarket’s accurate, impartial, and real-time prediction probabilities with Grok’s analytics and X’s real-time insights will instantly deliver contextual, data-driven intelligence to millions of Polymarket users worldwide.”
Under the agreement, Polymarket and X will launch an integrated product offering data-driven insights and recommendations. Polymarket’s predictions will be combined with X’s data to deliver real-time insights, enriched with live annotations from Grok and related X posts, providing users with dynamic market analysis. This product is the first in a series of integrated and unique experiences that Polymarket and X plan to co-develop.
What Does the X & Polymarket Partnership Mean?
Polymarket’s core logic lies in forming consensus probabilities through real-money betting, while X’s real-time information feed provides fertile ground for this process. Some community members speculate that X may deeply integrate Polymarket at the infrastructure level, potentially embedding prediction markets directly into the Twitter feed.
The partnership between X and Polymarket carries multiple implications, potentially reshaping how social media interacts with prediction markets and advancing innovation in information production and decision-making mechanisms in the Web3 era.
Enhancing Prediction Market Credibility and Scale Effects
First, Polymarket operates as a decentralized prediction market platform using blockchain technology and oracles to offer transparent and tamper-proof outcome predictions. However, constrained by the niche nature of cryptocurrency, Polymarket has struggled to match the user scale of traditional social platforms. According to Dune data, Polymarket had fewer than 280,000 monthly active users in May 2025, with a historical peak of 450,000 MAUs in January 2025.
In contrast, X stands as a global mainstream social platform with distinct advantages in real-time engagement and trend discovery, backed by a massive user base and powerful information dissemination capabilities. According to ThunderBit data, X reached 415 million users globally in 2024, with 335 million monthly active users and approximately 200–250 million daily active users, who spend over 11 minutes per day on average on the platform. Behaviorally, 55% of X users prefer informational content, and 59% frequently use it for news. In the U.S., 59% of users cite political tracking as their primary use case.
This vast disparity in user scale represents one of the most valuable aspects of the partnership. X could serve as an exponential "traffic gateway" for Polymarket, while Polymarket’s predictive data can offer unique market intelligence to X users. This seamless integration could transform prediction markets from tools used by professional investors into democratized platforms accessible to the general public.
Accelerating Mass Crypto Adoption
Polymarket is built on the Polygon network and uses USDC as its primary trading medium. The deep integration between X and Polymarket could open a crucial gateway for the "social adoption" of cryptocurrencies.
Redefining Social Media Interaction Paradigms
Traditional social media users are primarily content consumers. The introduction of Polymarket may usher in a new "financialized participation" model: users can express opinions through real-money bets and earn returns based on outcomes, potentially significantly increasing user stickiness and engagement duration on X.
Dual Transformation: Information Financialization and Financial Socialization
The X-Polymarket collaboration signifies a dual transformation—information financialization and financial socialization. On one hand, market mechanisms could be embedded into information creation and dissemination, where every major news event spawns corresponding prediction markets whose price signals reflect credibility and impact. On the other hand, financial activities will become deeply embedded in social contexts, enabling users to participate in market predictions and earn economic rewards while browsing everyday content.
The deeper significance of this convergence lies in addressing today’s crisis of information credibility. Traditional media faces editorial bias, advertising pressures, and political leanings, while social media grapples with algorithmic curation and misinformation. Prediction markets, powered by real-money stakes, often better reflect genuine public sentiment and incentivize participants to uncover truths through economic rewards.
Commercial Implications
From a business perspective, this partnership may unlock new monetization avenues for X. Integrating prediction markets could enhance user engagement and generate richer, more granular interest data for its ad system, closing the loop on commercial value. Additionally, Grok will be able to analyze and process real-time data more effectively, delivering more accurate predictions and insights. Currently, Polymarket does not charge any fees.
Which Projects Benefit?
The opportunities arising from this partnership fall into two categories: direct ecosystem beneficiaries and derivative speculative projects:
I. Core Ecosystem Beneficiaries (Directly Linked)
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Polygon: Underlying network
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Ethereum: Polygon, Polymarket’s underlying Layer 2 network, is built on Ethereum, indirectly benefiting Ethereum.
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USDC: Polymarket primarily uses Polygon-based USDC for betting, and all transactions and liquidity incentives are distributed in USDC. As platform volume grows post-collaboration, USDC usage and demand are likely to rise accordingly.
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Ethereum, Base, Arbitrum, Solana: Beyond Polygon, Polymarket supports depositing USDC, ETH, SOL, ARB, and other tokens on these four networks, though trading is currently only supported using USDC on Polygon.
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Coinbase, Binance, Bitfinex: Polymarket allows USDC deposits from these three exchanges.
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MoonPay: MoonPay enables users to purchase USDC on Polygon using Visa, Mastercard, and select bank cards.
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UMA: Polymarket’s prediction markets rely on UMA, an optimistic oracle based on smart contracts. The partnership with X could increase demand for UMA’s oracle services. In March 2025, UMA announced collaboration with Polymarket and EigenLayer to research next-generation prediction market oracles. Potential developments include oracles supporting multiple tokens for dispute resolution, along with features like dynamic bonding, AI agent integration, and enhanced anti-bribery security.
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Safe: Polymarket employs a proxy wallet system for users—one type being Safe smart accounts enabling account abstraction; the other being MagicLink proxy wallets (powered by Magic Labs' MagicLink).
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Magic Labs: Founded in May 2018, Magic Labs simplifies Web3 access by eliminating seed phrases and browser extensions via embedded wallets. It has also launched Newton, a verifiable on-chain automation layer.
II. Derivative Project Watchlist
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Polycule: A Telegram-based trading bot within the Polymarket ecosystem that also supports copy-trading. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan follows Polycule’s official X account. The Polycule token was launched in mid-May by @top_jeet_ on Believe and has seen its market cap surge over 200% since June 6. Notably, following the announcement of the X-Polymarket partnership, Polycule announced a $560,000 investment from Alliance.
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Polytrader: Offers insights and technical analysis on Polymarket opportunities, along with autonomous trading bots. The Polytrader token was previously issued via Virtual and currently holds a market cap of $1.8 million.
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PredictFolio: Enables analysis, comparison, and tracking of user activity on Polymarket. Its official X account is followed by Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan.
Summary
The partnership between X and Polymarket is more than just a "business alliance"—it represents a profound shift in the logic of internet information dissemination. This space is no longer merely a battleground of opinions, but an on-chain financial market where attention, capital, and consensus converge.
However, prediction markets are often classified as gambling-like activities in many jurisdictions and may face stricter regulatory scrutiny. Moreover, the long-term success of this collaboration depends on overcoming potential challenges such as market manipulation and information pollution.
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