Pirate Season or Pirate G? The Dilemma of a "Partial Bull Market"
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Pirate Season or Pirate G? The Dilemma of a "Partial Bull Market"
The market shows significant divergence and is still in the oversold rebound phase.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Wenser (@wenser 2010)
With favorable market policies emerging one after another, the crypto market has gradually warmed up. Altcoins are experiencing their "second spring," with meme coins particularly standing out: according to OKX data, MOODENG, GOAT, WIF, BOME, and MEW surged 123.09%, 57.36%, 26.24%, 24.84%, and 22.64% respectively over the past 24 hours. This rally, driven by BTC, ETH, and SOL, has led many diamond-handed investors to exclaim “They’re back, everything’s back,” while simultaneously bleeding internally over their significantly reduced positions. To help readers better understand the future market outlook, Odaily Planet Daily summarizes below the key drivers behind this recent market surge and representative industry views.
Direct Macro Boost: China-U.S. Rapprochement and Fed's Rate Cut Hints
The recent market surge was most directly triggered by tariff and trade negotiations between China and the U.S. Additionally, due to a series of prior moves by Trump and growing concerns about potential economic recession, the Federal Reserve has softened its previously hawkish stance. With increasing expectations of rate cuts this year, bullish sentiment has surged, and buying pressure has quickly overtaken selling.
China and U.S. Reach "Substantial Progress"
This morning in Beijing time, the White House announced that the U.S. reached a trade agreement with China in Geneva. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson stated that the two-day negotiations held in Geneva achieved "substantial progress." Both sides expressed satisfaction with the outcomes, noting that differences were smaller than expected and the agreement came faster than anticipated. U.S. officials remain optimistic, believing the deal will help address trade deficits. He Lifeng, China’s lead negotiator and Vice Premier of the State Council, also attended the press conference, describing the high-level talks as candid, in-depth, constructive, and yielding important consensus and substantial progress. Both sides agreed to establish a China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism.
After the farce of the previous "154% high tariffs," the fact that China and the U.S. have calmly resumed negotiations and reached a phased consensus undoubtedly serves as a stabilizing force for both economies and the cryptocurrency market.
Fed Signals Dovish Shift, Rate Cuts Likely This Year
On May 8, Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated that rate cuts could be appropriate under certain circumstances, though not under others, adding he couldn’t confidently predict the right path for interest rates. At that time, futures pricing implied about a 75% chance of a rate cut by July.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Governor Kugler noted rising risks for both inflation and unemployment, suggesting a near-term economic slowdown. On the other side, "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos analyzed that Chair Powell downplayed expectations of rate cuts mitigating economic weakness from Trump’s potential tariffs, implying the Fed would only consider cuts upon clear evidence of significantly slowing growth—and possibly enact rapid cuts if needed.
Overall, the likelihood of rate cuts in the second half of the year has significantly increased, further repairing the oversold market sentiment from earlier declines.
Institutional Buying of BTC Continues: Listed Companies Lead Accumulation, BlackRock Dominates
In this cycle, listed companies have emerged as the most visible group accumulating BTC, becoming one of the fastest-growing holders in the crypto market. Asset management firms and ETFs are also experiencing rapid growth.
Metaplanet Adds 1,241 BTC Worth ~$182M Today
Japanese-listed company Metaplanet acquired 1,241 BTC worth approximately $182 million. To date, the company holds 6,796 BTC valued at around $704 million.
Strategy Keeps Buying, Annual Return Now Over 14%
Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, shared updated Bitcoin Tracker information late last night. Following past patterns, Strategy typically discloses new BTC purchases the day after such announcements.
On May 5, it was reported that Strategy purchased 1,895 BTC at $95,167 each (totaling $180.3 million) between April 28 and May 4. The company also stated that its year-to-date Bitcoin return has reached 14.0%. As of May 4, 2025, it holds 555,450 BTC at an average cost of $68,550, with a total value of $38.08 billion.
Indian Listed Firm Jetking Enters BTC Market, Targets 18,000 BTC by 2030
Harsh Bharwani, CEO of Indian-listed company Jetking, previously stated that the company plans to gradually accumulate BTC through various financing tools, aiming to hold 18,000 BTC by 2030. He revealed plans to raise funds to reach approximately 180 BTC within the next six months, target 1,800 BTC within the next year, and complete the full holding plan by 2030.
BlackRock Adds 5,613 BTC, Total Holdings Surpass 620,000
According to Lookonchain monitoring, on May 6, BlackRock added 5,613 BTC worth $529.5 million, bringing its total BTC holdings to over 620,000—specifically 620,252 BTC valued at $58.51 billion. Since April 21, BlackRock has purchased a total of 47,064 BTC.
On May 7, BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) ranked sixth among all U.S. ETFs with $6.96 billion in net inflows, surpassing the world’s largest gold ETF (GLD) with $6.5 billion.
New Catalyst: Futu Opens BTC, ETH, USDT Deposits, Bridging Traditional Finance with Crypto
Beyond these well-known sources of buying pressure, the most notable recent development in the crypto market is Futu APP—the traditional finance application—opening deposit functions for BTC, ETH, and USDT.
Futu Launches BTC, ETH, and USDT Deposit Services
Last week, Futu Securities International (Hong Kong) Limited announced the official launch of deposit services for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Tether (USDT). Eligible investors can now deposit and trade cryptocurrencies ("Crypto") via the one-stop trading platform Futu Niuniu, enabling investment across broader asset classes or secure fund withdrawals. Users can now manage both Crypto and TradFi assets (traditional financial assets including Hong Kong, U.S., and Japanese stocks, options, ETFs, funds, bonds, etc.) within a single app, swiftly switching between digital and traditional markets.
Altseason or Alt G? Market Divided, Still in Oversold Recovery Phase
Following minor pullbacks after the recent sharp rises in BTC, ETH, and SOL, excitement around altseason has reignited. However, industry figures remain deeply divided on whether an altseason is imminent. Some believe altcoins will once again absorb liquidity spilling over from BTC and ETH, leading to strong rallies. Others argue that many alts have already plunged 80%-90% from their January highs and earlier peaks, making the recent gains merely a "dead cat bounce."
Bullish View: Trader Eugene Expects Strong Altcoin Rebound
Last Saturday, trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted that although he correctly predicted the upward trend this time, he was stopped out prematurely due to volatility and thus realized poor returns. Looking ahead, reaching $100K confirms the prior $90K support reversal, and the market may now challenge all-time highs—an outcome he didn't originally expect. But funding from MicroStrategy and ETFs appears endless.
In contrast, most veteran crypto investors remained观望 (watching)—even shorting—until yesterday. With renewed expectations of new highs fueling market enthusiasm, a strong rebound in altcoin market cap is likely.
Bullish View: Analyst Says Retail Market Is Short-Term Traders, Altseason Is Here
Analyst 2 Lambroz believes the altcoin season may have already arrived, though market dynamics have shifted. "People want to buy, but lack confidence in any strong narrative," he noted. Unlike 2021, there are currently no signs of retail investors flooding in. Traders are rotating capital faster, with little incentive to hold long-term positions. Technical trader Moustache is even more optimistic. He shared a chart showing altcoins repeatedly going through accumulation phases before explosive growth. According to his analysis, the current structure resembles those of 2016 and 2020. "Altcoin season 2025 has officially begun."
Neutral View: CryptoQuant Founder Admits Past Error, Urges Focus on Institutional Inflows
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju posted that his two-month-ago call for the end of the BTC bull market was wrong. Current on-chain data shows decreasing BTC selling pressure, while institutional inflows via ETFs are driving structural changes. He pointed out that in the past, the BTC market mainly consisted of veteran whales, miners, and retail traders, making cycle tops relatively easier to identify. But now, with ETFs, MicroStrategy, institutions, and government entities involved, the traditional logic of "whales distributing at tops" is breaking down. Ki emphasized that in this new environment, focus should shift to incoming institutional capital rather than outdated sell-off signals.
Bearish View: Alts Down 90%, Golden Age Premature
Meanwhile, skeptics remain. Commentator Rekt Fencer noted that since last December, most altcoins have dropped 90%. A mere 10% weekly bounce triggered excessive optimism, prompting him to mock the rally: "This is the long-awaited golden age of altcoins."
Conclusion: Meme Coin Bounce Doesn’t Signal Altseason Arrival
According to Coingecko data, BTC’s market dominance remains near 60%. Overall, it's still difficult to claim we’ve entered altseason. Instead, the earlier term "Alt G" seems more accurate. Most coins performing well recently show signs of "local bull markets" rather than broad-based strength.
As Arthur Hayes said in early May, “The question I’ve been asked most recently is: when will altseason come? And the answer is sometimes it’s right in front of you. HYPE.”
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