Metrics Ventures: Bitcoin Bottom Confirmed and Outlook for a New Crypto Market Cycle
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Metrics Ventures: Bitcoin Bottom Confirmed and Outlook for a New Crypto Market Cycle
Adorning this mountain pass, today it looks even more beautiful.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Metrics Ventures
1/ Following our April view, Bitcoin and global risk assets have confirmed their bottoms this month as expected. Notably, Bitcoin has become the top-performing dollar-denominated asset following the recovery from a liquidity crisis—the first time in years—bringing welcome relief. As of the issuance date of this report, Bitcoin's actual price center has already broken above the consolidation range observed in March.
2/ Over the entire month, after massive turnover over the past three months, Bitcoin has effectively entered a state of supply exhaustion, with trading volumes between bulls and bears remaining consistently moderate. From the perspective of market sentiment, a large number of on-chain traders are shorting the broader market and altcoins, aligning with veteran crypto participants' top-call judgments based on fundamental stack theories and emotional trading patterns.
3/ Altcoins require little elaboration. Despite price attempts by some newly listed tokens and established, tightly controlled altcoins like SUI, overall performance remains unsatisfactory. It is difficult to anticipate a return of profitable momentum before new liquidity inflows and a surge in market sentiment. Meanwhile, we are seeing an increasing number of crypto-related assets embracing alternative liquidity channels such as SPACs and listings on exchanges like Nasdaq. It is clear that the capital flow pathways of the next liquidity cycle are quietly shifting, placing existing legacy altcoins under increasingly severe pressure.
Review and commentary on overall market conditions and trends:
This month’s market movement is significant. During the process of volatility contraction after sharp swings, the relative strength among assets often signals structural shifts. Bitcoin's outperformance has surprised many participants. However, we believe this period highlights several crucial points: 1/ Bitcoin still does not face concentrated selling pressure. The current sell-side activity mostly comes from legacy crypto holders and floating speculative positions. Therefore, the end of this cycle should be defined by liquidity depletion and a turning point—conditions that run counter to the current trajectory of global liquidity;
2/ MicroStrategy’s Q1 2025 earnings report reveals a historic phenomenon in capital markets. We believe this has been widely misunderstood. To put it simply, MicroStrategy raised $7.7 billion in Q1 2025 through various means including direct stock offerings, exchangeable bonds, and convertible debt—surpassing the $4.4 billion raised in Q4 2024. At the same time, while most U.S. equities experienced sharp declines, MicroStrategy emerged as one of the most resilient dollar-denominated risk assets, consistently ranking among the top ten in trading volume on U.S. exchanges—an astonishing feat. Even more remarkably, this is a stock where the market actually welcomes dilution and share issuance, a phenomenon bordering on miraculous in the history of global capital. The market has significantly underestimated MicroStrategy’s actual fundraising and purchasing power, and prevailing arrogance and bias may lead to even greater sentiment reversals ahead;
3/ If in 2024 we believed pricing power was merely "shifting," now we can conclude that the handover of pricing power is complete. Most traditional crypto analysis frameworks will likely become obsolete. Research into asset characteristics, USD cycles, and underlying asset dynamics will increasingly be rewarded by the market. The flow of crypto liquidity in the next phase of elevated sentiment will further validate this conclusion.
Overall, we remain highly optimistic about BTC’s future trajectory, driven both by the inevitability of an accelerating liquidity growth curve and by the divergence between actual price action and market participants’ perceptions.
Regarding altcoins, we also believe that the emerging model of new altcoins closely tied to U.S. equities will play a central role in the next cycle of sentiment overflow, warranting close attention from all industry participants.
Finally, a brief note on RMB-denominated assets. The fundamental turnaround of the RMB will, much like the recent standout performance of the J-10CE fighter jet in the India-Pakistan conflict, gradually bring global recognition. This will steadily elevate RMB assets onto a new upward trajectory, with rising support levels. The current disconnect between price and fundamentals stems from long-standing bearish inertia, making this precisely the optimal zone for positioning. Global easing is imminent, and the recently concluded high-level financial policy statements serve as a critical signal. Do not get lost in America’s chaotic narrative—global central banks have already made their choice.
In a way, BTC in the eyes of crypto professionals resembles A-shares in the hearts of the Chinese people. Our sentiments converge. We conclude with a poem reflecting our assessment of the past and outlook for the future in these two industries where MVC maintains heavy exposure:
Red, orange, yellow, green, blue, indigo, violet— who waves the colorful ribbon across the sky?
Rain clears, sun slants— mountains stand dark and deep.
Battles raged fiercely back then— bullet holes pockmark village walls.
These mountains once scarred— today look even more magnificent.
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