Standard Chartered Reiterates: Bitcoin Target Price of $200,000 by 2025
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Standard Chartered Reiterates: Bitcoin Target Price of $200,000 by 2025
Standard Chartered's long-term price forecast for BTC: reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025 and $500,000 by 2028.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsSource: cryptoslate
Compiled by: Blockchain Knight
Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Global Crypto Assets Research at Standard Chartered, believes that although BTC has recently strengthened its position as a hedge, its price has yet to reflect growing signs of systemic risk.
In a client report on April 22, Kendrick warned that political pressures facing the Federal Reserve are intensifying tensions in the bond market—a stress that could soon spill over into crypto asset markets.
He noted that the U.S. 10-year Treasury term premium has risen to its highest level in 12 years, reflecting increasing market concerns about inflation, debt issuance, and particularly the possibility of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell being replaced.
"The current threat to the Fed's independence through the potential replacement of Powell falls squarely within the category of government-related risks. BTC should begin reflecting this shift shortly," said Kendrick.
Kendrick categorizes BTC as a hedge against two types of systemic threats: private-sector collapses, such as the 2023 failure of Silicon Valley Bank, and public-sector credibility shocks, such as central bank interventions or sovereign debt concerns.
Kendrick emphasized that while BTC typically behaves as a risk asset under normal conditions, its true function emerges during macroeconomic stress events. He added that the recent surge in term premiums is an indicator of long-term inflation and interest rate risk—precisely the kind of environment in which BTC historically reasserts its narrative as a hedge.
Kendrick also pointed out a recent divergence: while the term premium has risen sharply over the past few weeks, BTC prices have stagnated below $100,000. He attributes this lag to investors' temporary focus on trade-related concerns, including technology sector tariffs, which have dampened BTC’s response.
"BTC has lagged behind the term premium due to investors’ attention being temporarily focused on weak performance in tech stocks. But when focus shifts back to central bank credibility issues, BTC will resume its role as a hedge," he wrote.
Despite short-term volatility, Kendrick reiterated Standard Chartered’s long-term price forecasts for BTC: $200,000 by the end of 2025 and $500,000 by 2028.
He attributes this expected rise to macroeconomic pressures, improved structural investment channels via spot ETFs, and an increasingly mature derivatives market.
Kendrick previously modeled the growing allocation of BTC in optimized gold-BTC portfolios, arguing that declining volatility would support higher BTC prices going forward, especially amid continued expansion of institutional access under the current U.S. administration.
"This could be exactly what’s needed for BTC to reach its next all-time high," said Kendrick.
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