Podcast Notes | Bull and Bear Markets Intertwined, Market Divided—Can Bitcoin Still Reach $150,000?
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Podcast Notes | Bull and Bear Markets Intertwined, Market Divided—Can Bitcoin Still Reach $150,000?
Avi said that as time goes on, each day becomes more suitable for buying Bitcoin.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsCompiled & Translated: TechFlow
Guests: Jonah Van Bourg, crude oil & crypto trader; Avi Felman, host of 1000x Podcast
Podcast source: 1000x Podcast
Original title: Are We Still In A Bull Market?
Air date: February 25, 2025
Key Takeaways
This episode mainly discusses the following points:
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Market Volatility and Strategy
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The market is highly volatile, making it difficult for traders to profit through traditional methods.
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Shorting has become the primary strategy, especially targeting altcoins and projects affected by negative news.
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Bitcoin is consolidating at high levels, with no clear trend emerging in the market.
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BTC could reach $150,000 by year-end.
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Macro and Policy Impact
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Stablecoin legislation and pre-election uncertainty are seen as potential market catalysts.
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Trump’s policy direction significantly influences market sentiment and performance of risk assets.
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Divergence Between Bitcoin and Altcoins
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Bitcoin remains resilient and is viewed as a safe-haven asset.
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Altcoins are generally weak, though some projects (like MakerDAO and Solana) saw short-term volatility due to specific events.
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ETH/BTC Movement and Bybit Hack Incident
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Bybit suffered a hack, but the market reacted relatively calmly, with ETH prices not falling sharply.
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ETH's long-term narratives (such as RWA and stablecoin ecosystems) may drive price recovery.
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Future Market Outlook
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Stablecoin regulation and macro changes (e.g., interest rate cuts) could become turning points.
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Altcoins might experience an "alt season" if regulatory pressure eases.
How to Survive During Volatility?
Avi: This year’s price movements have been extremely volatile. The past two months have been absolutely wild. How are you navigating this situation?
Jonah:
This market has made it very hard for me to profit using my usual strategies. The only strategy that’s made me money is shorting. Going long on Bitcoin hasn’t worked—BTC is up only about 1% year-to-date. Small long positions in altcoins have been disastrous.
The market now desperately needs a catalyst to push prices higher. Right now, it feels stuck between the election and the passage of certain stablecoin bills. I’ve been closely watching developments in Washington because I think the next major catalyst might come from there.
Avi:
That’s true. Traders are used to identifying trends. Looking at Bitcoin’s daily chart, we had a strong uptrend from last November to December 17th, followed by a pullback, then two weeks of gains, then another two weeks of decline. But over the past month, there’s been almost no significant movement, filled instead with many “false breakouts.”
Bitcoin repeatedly approached $98,000 trying to break out, and frequently dipped below $95,000. In such conditions, traders instinctively buy or sell at these levels. But now the market has narrowed from a wider range into a tighter one, and many people are still trading based on the old, broader range, while the market has actually entered a consolidation phase.
My advice is: unless you’re focused on shorting altcoins or spotting arbitrage opportunities, now isn’t a good time to trade. Recently, some arbitrage trades have performed well—for example, Tao did quite well, and Maker has also shown strength.
MakerDAO’s stablecoin USDS has seen its market cap rise significantly since the beginning of the year, jumping from $5 billion to $9 billion—nearly doubling. This suggests the market recognizes that Maker tokens are being heavily minted and used. By doing research and paying attention, you can find trading opportunities.
Shorting the Current Market
Jonah:
I’ve been repeating the same point lately: shorting remains a solid strategy in the current market. For instance, when a project gets exposed as a scam, the token price might not react immediately. That’s the moment to short, as the price typically drops afterward.
Avi:
There are indeed some latent opportunities in today’s market, as long as you stay attentive. Solana is a classic example—it’s been very weak since the start of the year.
It surged from $183 to nearly $300, primarily driven by Trump launching a meme coin. When such hype emerges, we need to ask: how long can this frenzy last? And among those buying during the rally, how many will actually hold Solana long-term? The answer is probably not many.
Jonah:
I agree. But I also think this could be a turning point. Some investors may sell Ethereum and shift to Solana as their preferred L1 in the next cycle. Overall, however, core crypto users seem exhausted by the current market, and many are exiting. Traders who should normally be active during news-driven moves are now drained. Their strategies haven’t worked, the expected “alt season” hasn’t arrived, leading to disappointment and widespread selling across the asset class.
Avi:
That’s a great observation. You can see similar patterns on the charts. An interesting study would be to check how many coins have actually risen in price since Trump’s election.
Jonah:
Probably very few. The current market isn’t purely a bull or bear market—it’s both coexisting. Bitcoin remains in a bull market, while many other coins are enduring brutal bear markets. The crypto industry struggles to handle this divergence because we still lump everything under the term “crypto,” with Bitcoin serving as the benchmark for the entire market.
Avi:
Exactly. This divergence makes me more optimistic about Bitcoin and other major coins long-term. If you can endure the bear market, greater opportunities lie ahead. Market tops usually occur when there are no buyers left, and right now we’re in the “fear” zone of the Fear & Greed Index—even though Bitcoin is near all-time highs. That makes me believe that once we get through this downturn, there’s massive upside potential.
Jonah:
I think once stablecoin legislation passes, many Web2 companies will begin entering crypto, potentially sparking a new wave of growth. Until then, impatient crypto investors may continue feeling disappointed. We don’t have that old thrill of quick profits anymore because the market environment has fundamentally changed.
Bitcoin Underperforming
Avi:
From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin has recently underperformed. A few days ago, BTC dropped below its MA100, and last Friday, that moving average became a strong resistance level. Generally, MAs are key indicators of market momentum. When investing or trading Bitcoin, the two most important things are assessing market momentum and identifying value zones. Bitcoin is a trend-following asset—investors typically buy as prices rise, or when they perceive a favorable risk-reward ratio.
The key is judging risk-reward. One way to assess this is by referencing common market price targets. For example, aiming for a 2:1 risk-reward ratio (where potential gain is twice the risk). Before Trump was elected U.S. President, I projected $150,000 as an attractive value zone, since the general market target was $100,000. Investors often think: “If everything goes well and Trump wins, Bitcoin could hit $100,000.” Even if the market doesn’t immediately reach that target, investors can set stop-losses below $145,000, creating a sound risk management strategy.
The question now is, what is the market’s target for Bitcoin? Where is a reasonable annual target? And how do investors identify value zones and set stop-losses? The consensus I’m hearing is $150,000. Compared to optimistic projections like $250,000 or $500,000, this seems more realistic. If things go smoothly, I believe reaching $150,000 by year-end is possible. Using a 2:1 risk-reward ratio, the stop-loss would be around $75,000. For Bitcoin to move significantly higher, the market would need either $20 billion in fresh capital, legislation enabling broad adoption, or large-scale federal government purchases as reserves. Otherwise, Bitcoin may continue sideways consolidation.
Another way to assess value is observing how long Bitcoin holds within a price range. If prices remain above $90,000 for three to six weeks, many investors may view this as a fair value zone and look to buy between $85,000–$90,000. Bitcoin traded sideways for 200 days in 2024 (nearly half a year), leading investors to treat that range as a stable value point. Currently, Bitcoin has spent only 92 days around the $90,000 level—possibly needing another 90 days of consolidation to establish new value perception.
So my view is: each passing day makes Bitcoin slightly more attractive to buy, but I’m not rushing to accumulate heavily.
When Will Market Sentiment Turn?
Jonah:
If your investment horizon is short-term, there’s no need to rush in. But if you’re thinking long-term, this might be the time to act. If U.S. states start allocating to Bitcoin, the total assets managed by state and local pension systems are enormous—$6.25 trillion, with public pension funds managing up to $30 trillion. If just 1% of that flows into Bitcoin, it means tens of billions in inflows—an enormous sum.
We focus too much on whether the federal government will hold Bitcoin, overlooking the potential impact of local governments and pension funds. I believe over time, increasing amounts of capital will gradually enter the Bitcoin market. It’s precisely this steady inflow that gives me confidence in Bitcoin.
We might suddenly see a crazy surge in the market without a clear reason. This has happened in other asset classes before. Capital inflows can go from a trickle to a flood, triggering a breakout.
However, there’s currently a strange emotional gap between Bitcoin and other assets. Bitcoin shows strong resilience and bright prospects, while others appear relatively weak. I think when people feel most hopeless about altcoins in the darkest moments, that’s often right before dawn breaks.
Avi:
I’m actually very bullish on Bitcoin’s dominance over altcoins. The current environment strongly favors Bitcoin’s performance.
Two reasons. First, altcoins have pulled back significantly, wiping out nearly all gains made during the Trump rally. At current levels, selling pressure has greatly diminished because many holders have already exited. I’ve noticed some altcoins rebounded 20%-30% after bottoming on February 9th, only to give it all back. Now they’ve returned to their February 9th levels, meaning there may not be many sellers left in the market.
I still hold some altcoins, though less than last week, because I believe in their strong teams and products. However, history shows that assets that outperform during downturns often lose momentum during rallies, having absorbed too much capital too quickly. Unless assets like LTC get ETF approval fast, their performance may remain capped.
Jonah:
Your view is indeed counterintuitive. We usually assume highly liquid assets perform worse in downturns because reduced activity leads to lower liquidity.
Avi:
That’s a solid theory, but actual market behavior differs. During declines, liquid assets tend to perform better as investors treat them as safe havens. But when the market recovers, capital may flow out of these “safe assets” into other areas.
BTC in a Multipolar World
Jonah:
Last Friday, S&P 500 futures dropped sharply, marking the biggest decline since 2025. While the stock market experienced similar volatility in 2024, overall it’s becoming more unstable. In contrast, Bitcoin didn’t collapse like the S&P 500—it appeared relatively stable. Of course, it’s just one day’s data—we shouldn’t overinterpret.
Avi:
It’s a fascinating phenomenon. Technically, Bitcoin has held up well against Nasdaq, seemingly finding a bottom. Currently, the BTC/Nasdaq ratio is 4.43, with the bottom around 4.35. Earlier on weekly charts, we saw a small dip to 4.25, but the weekly structure looks solid with a reasonable stop-loss. I can’t precisely explain why Bitcoin is performing so well, but I suspect it’s tied to why stocks are struggling.
What do you think is driving the stock market weakness?
Jonah:
Stock declines are mainly driven by fears over tariffs. Though it’s just one day’s data, Bitcoin’s resilience under such conditions gives us clues. If a major trade war erupts in the future, Bitcoin may trade differently—not as a risk asset impacted by trade barriers and tariffs, but more like an alternative reserve currency.
In a multipolar world, as the global economy shifts from a single-dollar system to a diversified one, there’s a real need for a non-dollar alternative reserve currency. Bitcoin could be exactly that choice.
It’s too early to conclude, but every time Bitcoin performs well amid tariff fears, I get excited.
As traders, one of our biggest dreams is profiting during rare market moments—which may only happen every two to four years. For oil traders, 2020 and 2022 were such moments. For Bitcoin, now might be that opportunity.
If a major trade war erupts, stock markets crash, and governments may begin accumulating Bitcoin at the federal level, adding it to balance sheets or central bank reserves to support global trade. In a multipolar world, as spheres of influence for China, the U.S., Russia, and Europe diverge, non-dollar-denominated trade could increase significantly.
Currently, only a few countries like Iran, Venezuela, and North Korea rely on Bitcoin for transactions. But if global politics shift dramatically, NATO alliances are restructured, and more nations need Bitcoin for international trade, demand won’t be limited to a few “fringe countries” but expand to mainstream economies. As this demand grows, Bitcoin’s price could surge.
If this happens, Bitcoin will no longer just follow the stock market’s beta—it will become true alpha, an asset that outperforms the market. That would be a glorious moment for crypto.
Trump’s Impact on the Market
Avi:
Why are stocks weak while Bitcoin performs well? I think it boils down to one word: uncertainty. Before Trump took office, I thought he’d be very business-friendly—cutting regulations, creating a level playing field, attracting massive investment to the U.S. But in reality, Trump turned out far less predictable than many expected. In his second term, his actions became more aggressive, implementing surprising policies.
For example, proposals like firing 1 million federal workers or imposing tariffs on Canada—once seen as campaign rhetoric—are now becoming reality. Plus, Trump’s relationship with Russia and his cool stance toward European allies have unsettled markets. Markets hate uncertainty, but Bitcoin seems unafraid of chaos. In fact, Bitcoin strengthens as global uncertainty rises. Businesses struggle to adapt to an unpredictable future, while Bitcoin declares: “Chaos is good for me.”
Previously, countries like EU members, Canada, and Mexico might wait for the U.S. stance on Bitcoin before acting. Now, nations increasingly make independent decisions, making Bitcoin’s geopolitical role more significant. If you believe the U.S. will support Bitcoin, you should enter early. Today’s increasingly divided world may benefit Bitcoin—but poses bigger challenges for stocks.
Jonah:
This should be top of mind for every crypto trader because Bitcoin is essentially a macro asset. During Trump’s first term, stocks repeatedly hit new highs—the so-called “Trump rally.” He constantly boasted on Twitter about market performance. But he may have shifted focus—the stock market may no longer be his key metric. If his priority becomes lowering the 10-year Treasury yield, that could be bad news for crypto.
Avi: Why would lower yields hurt crypto?
Jonah:
If he focuses solely on stabilizing the bond market and securing U.S. sovereign credit, that means ending deficit spending and stopping massive cash injections. This could tighten the money supply, reducing liquidity in capital markets and dampening demand for speculative assets. Crypto needs loose monetary conditions. Bitcoin tends to thrive when M1 money supply (cash and checking deposits) surges, but suffers under tightening.
Avi: But he’s said multiple times his goal is lowering interest rates.
Jonah:
I think he cares more about cutting short-term rates than adjusting the 10-year yield. If the U.S. adopts Greece-style austerity from 2012—slashing federal spending to fix the balance sheet—it could shock markets. But I don’t think Trump will fully take that path.
Trump’s Presidential Agenda
Jonah:
During Trump’s first term, he cared deeply about stock performance, treating it as his KPI. The biggest fear now is that he might pursue extreme austerity, pushing the economy into a painful recession. But I think the outcome will likely land somewhere in the middle.
Trump may have observed Biden’s tenure—S&P 500 repeatedly hitting records, up over 20% overall. Yet those gains brought Biden little political benefit. Instead, inflation angered the middle class, and housing became less affordable. Learning from this, Trump may avoid full austerity, but won’t aggressively boost stocks either. I think we’ll end up in a compromise.
I think he’ll factor this in—likely avoiding national austerity, but not fully pushing the stock market.
Trump may cut many government jobs, raising unemployment and loosening the labor market. This could trigger volatility in risk assets. Risk assets—like stocks and crypto—are high-return, high-risk investments whose prices are sensitive to policy and sentiment.
This could ripple across sectors. For example, my mom’s neighbor—a neuroscientist at UC Berkeley—just had his NIH research funding cut. This hasn’t happened in decades, frustrating many researchers. Similar cuts could lead to professor departures, halted projects, and job losses. On the government side, fewer federal jobs could hurt real estate as unemployed people sell homes instead of buying.
Next, I think Trump may push for a Ukraine ceasefire deal. This could raise commodity prices, but also lower CPI, easing inflation.
Avi: If so, now might be a good time to buy Russian stocks.
Jonah:
Exactly—consider shorting oil and LNG. I believe falling inflation will pave the way for Fed rate cuts. As inflation slows, risk asset prices will stabilize, and after rate cuts, the market may see a real rebound. But we’re still in a painful adjustment phase.
I think lower rates will drive big gains in crypto, and stocks will gradually recover. Around 6 to 12 months into Trump’s term, we may see widespread deregulation—a corporate-friendly “golden era.”
But today’s business climate remains uncertain, leaving many frustrated. If you’re planning to launch a startup or invest, now could be a perfect moment—because once deregulation begins, stocks and crypto could explode.
Meanwhile, AI-driven productivity gains will gradually emerge. Last week we discussed deep research potential—I believe AI applications will bring sustained cost reductions (deflationary effects), further pushing stocks and crypto to new highs. In this super-bullish backdrop, Trump may leverage market optimism to increase deficits, raise tariffs again, and achieve policy goals via a loose capital market.
But this environment may reduce corporate bond and Treasury values, while Bitcoin could rise further as confidence in the dollar weakens. We’re now in the first stage of this clear but difficult path.
Avi:
Let’s analyze point by point. First, Trump fires many government workers, raising unemployment, loosening labor markets, and shaking risk assets—I’d assign an 85% probability. Then we’ll likely see a market pullback.
Second, regarding a Ukraine ceasefire agreement, I checked Polymarket data: 33% chance within 90 days, 46% chance of elections in 2025. Also, 70% chance of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2025—so I was wrong earlier.
Then, if rates fall, crypto may surge and stocks gradually recover. But I’m worried about inflation data—it may not meet expectations.
Jonah:
If we assume the first two points happen—mass layoffs raising unemployment, plus Ukraine war ending—commodity prices, a major CPI component, would drop sharply. This could ease inflation, and rising unemployment would give the Fed strong justification to cut rates.
Avi: It depends on inflation drivers, especially commodities. With more data, are there other factors pushing inflation?
Jonah:
Labor costs are also key. In CPI, energy and labor costs are two main variables. If oil falls to $45/barrel, and after Ukraine peace, OPEC may start a price war as production cuts fail, flooding the market with excess supply.
Avi:
If rates fall and energy prices drop, crypto prices will rise and stocks will gradually recover. In this case, altcoins may outperform, while Bitcoin lags slightly. Easing geopolitical tensions would boost risk appetite, increasing demand for altcoins. But Bitcoin will still rise, and the real winners might be Solana and Ethereum.
Then comes massive deregulation—stocks and crypto will celebrate. This may unfold subtly, not as a single policy event, but as a gradual market backdrop.
Interestingly, in 2023, someone tweeted that AI would massively boost NASDAQ. ChatGPT had just launched, and people hadn’t grasped its potential. I think we were right—NASDAQ’s growth truly benefited from AI adoption.
About deficits, I’m puzzled. In a world cutting spending, why would deficits persist?
Jonah:
My view: if commodity prices keep falling, and AI brings deflation and productivity gains, it benefits not just tech firms but traditional businesses reducing labor costs. Russell and S&P 500 indices would benefit too.
In this positive scenario, Trump might take stock-unfriendly actions—threatening tariffs on adversaries or disrupting global trade. On deficits, if the economy does well, the government can comfortably cut taxes and keep spending. But if recession hits, that won’t work.
So I think Trump will cut redundant roles. We know government spending mainly goes to four areas: Social Security, Medicare, defense budget, and now interest payments. These are hard to cut. So Trump might only target waste, fraud, abuse—unnecessary real estate spending, etc. Cutting Social Security, Medicare, or defense requires broad bipartisan legislation or even fundamental U.S. transformation.
So we’ll remain in a deficit world for a while—if everything else works, the government will tolerate it.
Avi:
I think Trump will struggle to reverse deficits. One of his core campaign promises was reducing deficits, cutting waste, and creating economic activity through the private sector. I think he’s more likely to take aggressive cuts than大幅 increase spending.
I expect tax cuts to outweigh spending reductions—he has two levers: cut spending and cut taxes to balance the budget. He really thinks of managing the U.S. economy like a business.
Jonah:
If you’re right, as an American patriot I hope you are—but as a Bitcoin holder, I hope you’re not. If he slashes budgets to balance, that’ll cause a real recession. Markets will crash because deficit spending now accounts for 7% of GDP. Cutting that to 2% or 0% would be terrible.
Avi:
I don’t mean we’ll keep annual deficits growing. I mean he’s unlikely to balance the budget, just unlikely to accelerate deficit growth.
Jonah:
My conclusion: avoid bonds, short commodities, go long on stocks and Bitcoin—that’s my ideal portfolio.
Also, I hadn’t seriously considered altcoin impacts until now. But you raised a good point: if these trends unfold, we might see a strong “alt season.” Especially under deregulation, alts could shine.
Bybit Hack: ETH/BTC Market Reaction
Avi:
The scale of the Bybit hack was shocking, but Bybit’s response was remarkably calm. Despite being a major exchange breach, no users appear to have lost funds. Bybit is handling it proactively—their operational capability is impressive.
But what fascinated me most was the ETH/BTC market reaction. When I saw the headline, my instinct was to short ETH, so I sold part of my position. Sure enough, ETH dropped ~2% briefly. But surprisingly, it quickly rebounded and stabilized—no further decline. Meanwhile, BTC actually rose 1%-1.5% that day compared to pre-event levels.
This market behavior was highly abnormal. Logically, a $1.5 billion theft should cause bigger swings. Yet ETH never hit bottom—suggesting nobody wanted to keep selling.
I’ve also looked into recent ETH developments. Reports show 50 non-crypto companies are building on Ethereum. But most are NFT-focused—few truly exciting projects. Only mildly interesting is Lamborghini launching a metaverse-related NFT, but that’s no longer core to Ethereum’s ecosystem.
Notably, most RWA-related activity remains on Ethereum. RWA is crucial in stablecoin ecosystems, representing the second phase of finance transitioning to crypto. Stablecoins are phase one; RWA is phase two—followed by corporate tokens and truly decentralized protocols. I think this could trigger an “ETH short squeeze” within the next year (rapid price rise from short covering). If so, ETH could outperform BTC and possibly return to a 0.4 ETH/BTC ratio.
If this happens next month, I wouldn’t be surprised. Trading rule of thumb: if good news can’t lift the market, it won’t rise; if bad news can’t push it down, it won’t fall. Currently, ETH appears stabilized.
Jonah: But I have a question—why do you think this rebound will happen within a month? Stablecoin legislation may take 2–6 months to pass, which could bring massive ETH inflows. Also, if North Korean hackers hold large ETH, might they dump it for cash, pressuring the market?
Avi:
Those two factors are worth considering. First, Bybit may need to repurchase ETH to cover liquidity issues—direct market impact. Second, ETH’s price may be influenced by short-term behavior, like whether hackers choose to sell.
Overall, I’m cautiously optimistic on ETH. First, ETH has real narrative support, which typically draws investor attention before events. Second, ETH didn’t keep falling post-hack—indicating reduced selling pressure.
I think traders like us will recognize this and may slightly rebalance ETH exposure.
Jonah:
I just feel uneasy buying ETH.
Avi:
Over the past year, I’ve shorted ETH in nearly all my trades because it consistently underperformed—rising less than others, falling harder. But now, I won’t short ETH at least for the next month. I believe many traders may stop shorting ETH at current levels.
Jonah: So what asset are you now using as your risk hedge via shorting?
Avi: Solana—on March 1st, $2 billion worth of SOL unlocks.
Jonah:
Part of that unlock may already be priced in. Unlike ETFs or Trump elections, unlocks can’t be fully front-run by buying. Investors can sell before unlock or avoid buying more Solana. Suppose $2 billion unlocks, with $1 billion dumped. Of that $1 billion, maybe $50 million sells directly at market price, while $250 million was already absorbed. So I don’t see this as Solana’s “doomsday,” but I agree it’s definitely not a good time to load up on Solana now.
Original link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUlmvWQPTjY
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