Crypto Morning Brief: Arthur Hayes predicts this cycle's peak will occur in mid-March; Backpack to officially launch its "season" in February
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
Crypto Morning Brief: Arthur Hayes predicts this cycle's peak will occur in mid-March; Backpack to officially launch its "season" in February
Babylon will launch the second phase of its testnet on January 8.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: TechFlow
Yesterday's Market Dynamics
Arthur Hayes: Expects this bull market peak to arrive by mid-March, followed by a severe correction
On January 7, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, published a new blog post stating that he believes the crypto market will reach its peak around mid-March before undergoing a significant correction.
The article notes that in Q3 2022, Bitcoin bottomed when the Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo (RRP) facility reached its peak. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen adjusted bond strategies, withdrawing over $2 trillion from RRP, injecting liquidity into markets and driving rallies in both cryptocurrencies and equities. In Q1 2025, attention centers on whether dollar liquidity can offset the slow rollout of Trump-era policies. If liquidity remains ample, increasing risk exposure would be a safe bet. The Fed plays a secondary role in this analysis; instead, focus shifts to how the Treasury handles the debt ceiling. Should politicians hesitate, the Treasury might inject liquidity from the Treasury General Account (TGA), creating a favorable environment for crypto. While the Fed continues quantitative tightening (QT), RRP balances are nearly depleted, and RRP interest rates have been cut to reduce their attractiveness—aiming to boost demand for U.S. Treasuries and paving the way for an end to QT. Yellen revealed the Treasury expects to take “extraordinary measures” for funding by mid-January. The timing of a debt ceiling increase will test Trump’s political support. By May-June 2025, TGA balances are expected to be exhausted, potentially triggering early market reactions. By the end of Q1, total dollar liquidity from the Fed and Treasury is projected at $612 billion. As default and government shutdown risks loom, an agreement to raise the debt ceiling is likely, allowing the Treasury to resume borrowing and refill TGA—thereby draining liquidity. After April 15—the tax deadline—government finances improve and liquidity declines further. If TGA balances drive crypto prices, markets may peak by the end of Q1 before pulling back. Yellen’s move to lower short-term Treasury yields undermines Powell’s strategy of tightening financial conditions to fight inflation. Despite potential shortcomings from Trump’s team regarding crypto and corporate legislation, positive dollar liquidity could offset these negatives.
Hayes said: “I recommend investors sell out in late Q1 and wait for improved liquidity conditions in Q3. As Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom, I advise risk-takers to switch to aggressive mode and explore decentralized science (DeSci) altcoins. If things go well, I’ll reduce my baseline positions in March.”
Sui TVL surpasses $2 billion, hitting a new all-time high
According to official news, Sui blockchain’s total value locked (TVL) has exceeded $2 billion, setting a new record—reaching this milestone just three months after first crossing $1 billion.
Sui attributes recent growth to newly announced and launched stablecoins, wallets, and lending protocols. Industry giants such as Grayscale, VanEck, and Franklin Templeton have also provided momentum for Sui.
Babylon to launch Phase 2 testnet on January 8
Officially announced, Babylon will launch its second-phase testnet (bbn-test-5) on January 8 at 09:00 UTC, with the updated staking application going live at 10:00 UTC.
This phase will primarily test migration registration for Signet Bitcoin staking from Phase 1, along with interactions among various protocol participants—including Bitcoin stakers, finality providers, validators, and liquid staking protocols.
The testnet supports permissionless smart contract deployment. Single staking limits range from 0.0005 to 350 Signet BTC, with an unbonding period of approximately 16–17 hours (100 Bitcoin blocks). The project is open globally but restricts participation from users in the United States, Canada, Australia, and mainland China.
MicroStrategy adds another 1,070 BTC, bringing total holdings to 447,470 BTC
Market data shows MicroStrategy purchased 1,070 additional BTC for $101 million, increasing its total BTC holdings to 447,470.
CryptoQuant: Current bull market cycle entering late stage, likely to peak in Q1 2025
CryptoQuant stated on social media that the market has entered the later phase of the current bull cycle. The long-term trend remains downward, suggesting the market is likely to peak in Q1 2025, or at latest by Q2 2025.
Binance announces Solv Protocol (SOLV) Megadrop now live; spot trading to launch on January 17
In an official announcement, Binance revealed the Solv Protocol (SOLV) Megadrop is now open. Users can participate by locking BNB and completing Web3 tasks (staking 0.0001 BTCB).
Binance will list Solv Protocol (SOLV) for spot trading on January 17 at 18:00, launching trading pairs SOLV/USDT, SOLV/BNB, SOLV/FDUSD, and SOLV/TRY, while assigning SOLV a seed tag.
Trader Eugene: With the bull market maturing, frequent profit-taking beats long-term holding
Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on X: “If you’ve been doing well in the market so far, I don’t think you should change your trading style or extend your holding periods. As we enter the later stages of the cycle, the strategy should shift toward selling more frequently rather than continuing to hold (HODL).”
Sam Altman: First AI agents may join workforce in 2025
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman wrote in his latest blog post that the company is now confident it knows how to build AGI (Artificial General Intelligence). He predicts that the first AI agents could “join the workforce” in 2025, significantly transforming enterprise output. “We continue to believe that iteratively putting great tools into people’s hands leads to widely distributed excellent outcomes. We’re now beginning to shift our goals beyond that—toward true superintelligence,” he added.
Reflecting on ChatGPT’s two-year anniversary, Altman noted the product has grown from 100 million weekly active users initially to over 300 million. He emphasized OpenAI’s pivot toward developing superintelligence, which he believes will dramatically accelerate scientific discovery and innovation, leading to greater societal prosperity.
Backpack: Official 'season' set to begin in February
Backpack announced its official season will commence in February 2025. Backpack founder Armani Ferrante stated: “The Pre-Season is over, private beta is live, and the first official season is coming.”
Messari releases DePIN report: Over 13 million devices worldwide actively participating in DePIN networks daily
According to the *State of DePIN 2024* report jointly authored by Messari DePIN research analyst Dylan Bane and Escape Velocity Ventures co-founder Salvador Gala, the decentralized physical infrastructure network (DePIN) sector achieved significant growth in 2024:
-
Market performance: DePIN market cap reached $50 billion, covering 350 tokens, with a price-to-annual-income ratio of about 100x.
-
Device contribution: Over 13 million devices worldwide participate in DePIN operations daily.
-
Network competition: Solana leads in infrastructure, while Base dominates consumer and marketplace segments.
-
Funding inflow: DePIN projects raised over $350 million in seed and early-stage financing during 2024.
-
Application expansion: Local governments are beginning to leverage DePIN to solve infrastructure challenges such as cross-border payments and logistics optimization.
Looking ahead to 2025, DePIN is expected to achieve 100–1000x growth in emerging markets and break through in broader application scenarios.
Market Data
Suggested Reading
Exploring DeFAI: Deep integration of DeFi and AI, three core use cases driving mass adoption of DeFi
AI-powered DeFi interfaces simplify user workflows via natural language commands.
Autonomous DeFi agents capable of executing complex, multi-step trading strategies.
Intelligent research and information interaction agents integrating multi-source data to support decision-making.
This article discusses how Solana’s AI hackathons have turned into speculative arenas, with excessive tokenization stifling genuine innovation. It argues that small cliques, large holders, and KOLs exert worse influence than VCs without reputational constraints. It offers suggestions including urging developers not to issue tokens merely for the sake of it, encouraging long-term thinking, and calling on KOLs and speculators to take greater responsibility.
The “DeFAI” summer is coming—how will AI reshape the future of DeFi?
This article introduces the rise of DeFAI (Decentralized Finance + Artificial Intelligence) and its impact on DeFi’s future. DeFAI aims to simplify, optimize, and enhance the DeFi experience through abstraction layers, autonomous trading agents, and AI-driven dApps, with 2025 expected to mark the arrival of DeFAI’s “summer.”
If crypto were an online RPG game, how would you choose your class and level up?
This article explores the idea of viewing the cryptocurrency world as a massive multiplayer online role-playing game (MMORPG), discussing how one should choose character classes and upgrade strategies. It outlines various investor archetypes—trader, liquidity provider, meme creator, arbitrageur, market maker—and analyzes each type’s suitability, strengths, and limitations. It also highlights key investment risks and common pitfalls.
Earn yield with ETH: 16 strategies offering APRs above 20%
Presents multiple currently sustainable and scalable ETH yield strategies delivering over 20% APR, including wstETH, leveraged weETH, and AERO mining.
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
深潮TechFlow
