Bitfinex: BTC could reach a peak of $290,000 by 2026
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Bitfinex: BTC could reach a peak of $290,000 by 2026
This prediction is based on historical price patterns during bull cycles, institutional adoption, and key technical indicators.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsSource: cryptoslate
Translation: Blockchain Knight
According to the latest edition of the "Bitfinex Alpha" report, if BTC replicates its 2017 bull market price trajectory, it could reach a peak of $290,000 by early 2026.
This forecast is based on historical price patterns during bull cycles, institutional adoption, and key technical indicators.
Following the bear market low in November 2022, BTC rebounded strongly in 2023 with a gain of 155.5%.
This momentum has continued into 2024, with BTC trading mostly between $55,000 and $70,000 throughout the year, achieving a year-to-date increase of 143%.
The current bull cycle began in mid-to-late 2023, fueled by anticipation of BTC's 2024 halving event, which historically precedes bull market years.
In addition, the report attributes the strength of this cycle to institutional buying pressure and the launch of spot BTC ETFs in the U.S., factors that have provided consistent demand and limited the magnitude and duration of market corrections.
In the 2017 cycle, BTC experienced a maximum correction of 33.2%, while in the 2020 cycle, the drawdown was 27.1%.
In the current cycle, increased institutional interest has kept BTC corrections more contained, further enhancing market stability.
BTC Cycle Top Indicator is an important tool for predicting BTC price peaks and has historically marked cycle highs with high accuracy.
The indicator tracks the relationship between the 111-day moving average (111DMA) and twice the 350-day moving average (350DMAx2).
In previous cycles, BTC typically reached significant price peaks when the 111DMA crossed above the 350DMAx2.
The report highlights that if the 2021 cycle pattern repeats, this crossover could occur as early as June 29, 2025; if an extended 2017-style cycle unfolds, it might happen as late as January 28, 2026.
Historically, BTC has traded at prices significantly above its moving averages during bull runs.
In 2017, BTC traded at three times the value of its peak moving average. However, as BTC matures, returns have diminished, suggesting more conservative price projections.
According to Bitfinex’s analysis, if BTC follows the 2021 trajectory, its price could rise 40% above the moving average, reaching approximately $339,000.
However, considering lower return rates, BTC may trade 15% to 20% above the moving average, peaking between $160,000 and $200,000 by mid-2025.
Meanwhile, if the less likely scenario of a repeat of the 2017 cycle occurs, BTC could reach a peak of around $290,000 by early 2026.
The report states that while historical indicators suggest the most probable outcome is a BTC peak between $160,000 and $290,000, the path to these levels will depend on market maturity, ETF adoption, and broader macroeconomic conditions.
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