Will the real山寨season arrive in 2025?
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Will the real山寨season arrive in 2025?
Emerging technologies and investment trends could further drive this growth wave in 2025.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Marie Poteriaieva
Translation: Baigua Blockchain
Bitcoin's breakthrough past the $100,000 mark last week is undoubtedly a historic milestone. Yet, even as this leading cryptocurrency celebrates its achievement, many altcoins have already begun outperforming Bitcoin, signaling the arrival of altseason.
Since the beginning of the year, 20 out of the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have posted gains exceeding Bitcoin’s impressive 124% rise. Rising altcoin market caps, increased media attention, and a climbing altseason index further confirm this trend. Additionally, a recent report from CCData shows that trading volume in November reached an annual high, while open interest hit an all-time record. These signs indicate rising risk appetite in the market—a shift that typically favors altcoins due to their higher potential return potential.
Looking deeper, investing in altcoins is effectively investing in Web3 and other blockchain-related industries. This sector is highly dependent on regulatory clarity, and after the U.S. elections, market sentiment has become more optimistic. Moreover, according to the latest data from CryptoQuant, altcoin trading volume is not being driven by BTC trading pairs. This suggests the market is experiencing genuine growth rather than just a rotation of assets from Bitcoin to altcoins. It may also mean that this altseason won't wait for Bitcoin to consolidate—it could see both asset classes rise simultaneously.
The altcoin rebound since November appears to be setting the stage for a larger-scale altseason in 2025. Emerging crypto trends and technologies are likely to attract institutional investors and venture capital. Below is an analysis based on on-chain data and broader trends, exploring the potential drivers and key narratives of the next altseason.
1. Altseason Is About More Than Just Price
Altseason is typically defined as a sustained period during which altcoins outperform Bitcoin. It often occurs in the final year of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, when market enthusiasm spreads beyond Bitcoin to other cryptocurrencies. During this phase, large-cap altcoins reapproach or surpass their all-time highs, while new narratives propel mid- and small-cap tokens into uncharted territory. Ultimately, widespread FOMO (fear of missing out) drives the entire crypto market toward overheating—a condition that usually precedes a market correction and eventual entry into a bear market.
However, altseason isn’t just about price; it represents a comprehensive evolution in market activity, application adoption, and innovation. To date, each major altseason has reflected distinct technological shifts and market trends.
The first altseason in 2017 was marked by the ICO boom and the rise of NFTs (remember CryptoKitties?). The second wave in 2021 combined the emergence of DeFi with an explosive NFT and gaming craze. To support these developments, cheaper and more scalable Layer 2 solutions emerged. All of these innovations have survived the crypto winter and continue evolving today.
Looking ahead, the third major altseason in 2025 could bring entirely new narratives and technologies—some already in development, others yet to emerge.
2. Indicators of an Approaching Altseason
Several metrics suggest that altseason is approaching. Bitcoin dominance is declining, altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin, and their market cap has reached new highs. However, the Altcoin Season Index and other related indicators suggest the peak of altseason may still lie ahead.
In absolute terms, the total altcoin market cap—calculated by subtracting Bitcoin’s market cap from the overall crypto market cap—has hit an all-time high. According to Coingecko, it currently stands at $1.89 trillion, surpassing the previous peak of $1.79 trillion set in November 2021. In relative terms, Bitcoin dominance has dropped from 60% in November to 51%.
However, both metrics include stablecoins and wrapped assets. While crucial for market liquidity, they don’t necessarily reflect genuine altcoin market development. Moreover, in bull markets, such assets tend to favor altcoins due to their higher risk-reward profile.
To measure the market more purely, Blockchain Center’s Altcoin Season Index excludes stablecoins and wrapped assets. It defines altseason as periods when more than 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over the past 90 days. Recently, this index crossed the 75% threshold on December 2 and held for a week. During the last altseason, it remained above this level for nearly three months. This supports the view that the peak of altseason may occur in 2025.
Another important indicator of altcoin performance is the OTHERS Index calculated by platforms like TradingView. This index tracks the total market cap of the crypto market excluding the top ten coins—including the two largest stablecoins. Although this index rose 123% over the past 30 days (followed by a pullback), it has not yet reached its prior all-time high. Last time, it surged 525% from its 2017 peak, indicating substantial room for further growth.
Finally, Google Trends reflects growing public interest in altcoins. Using May 2021 as the peak (index value of 100), current search interest has risen to 87—the highest level since then.
3. Key Narratives for Altcoins in 2025
As of 2024, three of the best-performing top 50 altcoins are memecoins: Dogwifhat (WIF +2,027%), PEPE (+1,764%), and Dogecoin (DOGE +382%). While memecoins are often symbolic of altseason, they are unlikely to define the mainstream narrative of the crypto market in 2025.
According to data from Blockchain Center, among the new technologies that emerged between 2023 and 2024, BRC-20 tokens performed best. Although some do not consider them true altcoins, tokens issued on the Bitcoin blockchain using technologies like Ordinals or Runes have gained over 1,000% this year. Among more traditional altcoin categories, RWAs (tokenized real-world assets) led with 717% annual growth, including tokenized versions of real-world assets and their supporting protocols. Close behind were AI-related tokens (+513%) and DePIN (decentralized physical infrastructure networks, +303%).
By 2025, new narratives are likely to emerge, and venture capital flows may reveal the most promising directions. According to Pitchbook, VC investment in crypto was relatively modest in 2023 ($10 billion) and totaled $7.1 billion in Q3 2024. Next year, activity could rebound to levels seen in 2021 and 2022—$25.3 billion and $29.4 billion respectively. This influx of capital will flow into specific projects and broader sectors, fueling the next wave of growth.
Finally, remember to avoid getting swept up in hype during altseason. Every bull run eventually ends in a correction (and bear market). Only tokens with strong fundamentals and real-world use cases will survive into the next cycle.
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