"Long-termism Diamond Hands" vs. "Short-term FOMO Paper Hands": Who Will Win?
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"Long-termism Diamond Hands" vs. "Short-term FOMO Paper Hands": Who Will Win?
Ways to get rich quickly are hard to replicate, but reasons for failure are mostly similar.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy Bingwa
We were too young back then to understand that every gift from fate has already been quietly priced.
—— Stefan Zweig
I. The Casino Theory of Crypto: Luck or Skill—Success Doesn't Lie in High Difficulty
Any game ultimately needs to answer one fundamental question: Is it a "game of luck" or a "game of skill"? Undoubtedly, in the early days of crypto, luck dominated—those who dared to charge forward could win, and the space richly rewarded its bold pioneers. As the industry evolved, we still see wealth legends occasionally emerge, but opportunities based purely on luck have become increasingly rare. The more overnight success stories we've seen, the more we've also witnessed tragedies of instant wipeouts.
Luck matters because it gives you opportunity; skill matters because it allows you to turn that opportunity into wealth. From today’s vantage point, retail investors must acknowledge that while luck still exists in crypto, the importance of skill is growing steadily.
What then is the ultimate skill for winning in crypto? Opinions vary. Some believe it's being an unbeatable short-term K-line master, others swear by heavy long-term value investing. Yet when looking at actual win rates, both strategies have produced champions—and plenty of ordinary players who ended in defeat.
If we view this from the perspective of an average retail investor, one truth stands out: embracing low-difficulty investing is the only true path to victory. Pay close attention to the qualifiers: ordinary people, retail investors.
Both diamond hands and short-term FOMO paper hands represent extremely high difficulty paths to success.
II. Survivorship Bias of Diamond Hands: You Can Do It, Then Step Up; If Not, Don’t Force It
Before discussing diamond hands, let’s assume we’re talking about a truly ordinary Web3 surfer—someone with nothing special besides courage, mediocre at reading charts, unable to hold long positions, anxious watching others get rich, rushing in impulsively and losing—that classic bagholder. With this in mind, let’s examine the probability of such an average person becoming a diamond hand, so you can finally give up the dream.
The term “diamond hand” originated on forums like Reddit, referring to investors who refuse to sell no matter how volatile their holdings become.
Note two implied conditions here: highly volatile financial assets and an unwavering refusal to sell. Long-term holders of gold likely don’t qualify for this title. Only those who hold through extreme volatility in speculative markets, refuse to sell, and eventually achieve massive gains deserve the name diamond hand.
In a world like crypto where unimaginable wealth appears overnight, everyone wants to be a diamond hand—but most cannot. Otherwise, there would be far more than the handful of legendary figures we know today.
To become a diamond hand, you need these three qualities:
1) Exceptional insight + luck: You must foresee an asset’s growth potential before it takes off, recognizing both its upside and likelihood of success.
2) Ample free capital: You must invest enough to make a difference without jeopardizing your lifestyle or mental stability.
3) Unshakable conviction: You must maintain superior understanding over time, resisting crowd psychology.
These may sound simple, but very few actually fulfill them. Knowledge is easy, action is hard. For most retail investors, even ignoring the second condition, meeting the first and third is already incredibly difficult—making diamond hands truly one in ten thousand.
A typical diamond hand starts with some spare cash—something many have. But next comes exceptional cognitive ability beyond the general public—a bar that eliminates most. Then comes sustained emotional resilience and determination—another filter that removes even more. Thus, the odds of an average person achieving this are extremely low.
To clarify: We're discussing probabilities for ordinary individuals. There are certainly people who bet their entire fortune, endure massive drawdowns, and succeed—but they aren't ordinary.
The harsh reality is: we only see someone win effortlessly and cry out, “Are kings and generals born of noble blood?” But we rarely realize the pain they endured—pain we ourselves might not withstand. That endurance is talent, luck, and years of training combined.
You can do it, then step up. If you can't, don’t force it. Sometimes waiting brings value—because you recognize real value. Most of the time, waiting creates no value and turns into obsession. Those who identify truly long-term valuable projects are rare—they’re either exceptionally intelligent, uniquely talented, or superhumanly diligent. They always possess at least one extraordinary trait.
So if becoming a diamond hand is unlikely, can I get rich through short-term FOMO? The answer remains no.
III. The Trap of Short-Term FOMO: I Can Do It, I Want In; I Can’t Handle It, But I Can’t Get Out 😂
First, market bubbles are absolutely a positive concept—but you must understand bubbles, embrace bubbles, but never become the bubble. Short-term FOMO tests not just your psychology, but your execution skills. Its main challenges include:
Everyone else is up 10x in a day—do you join?
Everyone’s already onboard—do you get in?
Others are aiming for 100x—you exit at 20%;
Another gem coin pops up—but you’re not holding;
You finally hop on board—only to find yourself trapped;
Game over.
Take the recent MEME frenzy as an example—this psychological cycle plays out daily:观望 (watching), entering, adding positions, getting trapped, cutting losses, exiting.
You’ll notice a shocking pattern: it feels like money is everywhere, yet the big wins never belong to you. Starts with big profits, then small gains, followed by small losses, ending in zero, trapped, or devastating losses.
Where exactly did things go wrong?
Short-term FOMO features high payoff odds, but not necessarily high win rates. Except during broad bull markets fueled by universal liquidity, FOMO-driven rallies often concentrate on just a few assets, or rotate rapidly across sectors—increasing emotional volatility and randomness. After all, nobody knows what meme image Elon Musk will post tomorrow.
Scenarios where short-term FOMO generates profit: enter early, exit fast, and keep your hands under control.
Enter early: You spot an asset’s potential ahead of the crowd—requiring acute market sensitivity and judgment;
Exit quickly: You accurately detect topping signals and withdraw in time—requiring mastery over greed;
Keep hands steady: You avoid impulsive trades after emotional highs—demanding extreme discipline in position and risk management;
People possessing all three abilities simultaneously are exceedingly rare in the market.
That said, this doesn’t mean short-term FOMO always leads to losses—just that the odds of making big money this way are low. For most people, it remains a high-difficulty, unwise path.
Graham, Buffett’s mentor, once said: Bull markets are where average investors lose the most money. The deeper reason isn’t FOMO itself, but ignoring the severe risks lurking beneath short-term euphoria.
The paradox of financial markets is: Bear markets don’t necessarily mean high risk; bull markets don’t necessarily mean low risk.
With short-term FOMO, when you’re hesitating, a small group has already built positions. By the time you jump in, seeing daily doubles or triples, some have already cashed out. When you realize something’s wrong, you’re deeply trapped.
IV. Will This Time Be Different? Today’s Cost, Tomorrow’s Price
When analyzing both diamond hands and short-term FOMO, we find that the probability of ultimate success via either approach is quite low. You might argue: Trump is back, policy tailwinds are coming, the bull market has no ceiling—so both strategies will win. But history shows no eternal bull market, nor endless bear market—everything moves in cycles.
For ordinary people, we should embrace low-difficulty investing rather than chase high-difficulty paths. And this isn’t to say that since neither diamond hands nor FOMO guarantee success, we should just give up. Every choice you make now carries a cost—future returns or unbearable consequences.
For most ordinary individuals, the chance of getting rich through any replicable method is extremely slim. Your resources, talents, personality, and environment may all lead to failure at any moment.
Ways to get rich are hard to copy; ways to fail are mostly the same.
Low-difficulty investing means, based on full awareness of your personality and resources, doing what you’re best at—what gives you the highest win rate—and sticking with it long-term.
If you can’t even secure basic living needs, you should find a job instead of trying to cultivate diamond-hand mentality;
If you’re emotionally unstable and can’t tolerate drawdowns, you shouldn’t repeatedly chase peaks in volatile markets. Instead, pick a target, deploy small amounts patiently over time—or focus on farming, earning the most certain returns.
Overcoming human weaknesses is never easy. For most people, it may be impossible throughout life. The lowest-difficulty move is to continuously learn from top performers, integrate their methods into your own system, and stick to the investment approach where you have the highest edge.
This is my realization, and my advice to all retail investors. It may not make you rich overnight, but over the long arc of life, losing less is itself another form of victory.
Standing at the beginning of a new bull market, whatever your choice—this time, I hope you win!
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