US Stock Market Trend (July 15): CPI Cools More Than Expected, SK Hynix Surges 27%, IBM Plunges 25%
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US Stock Market Trend (July 15): CPI Cools More Than Expected, SK Hynix Surges 27%, IBM Plunges 25%
Cooling inflation eased rate hike anxiety, and market risk appetite subsequently rebounded, but this rebound was highly concentrated in a few sectors.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy: TechFlow Research
U.S. June CPI rose 3.5% year-over-year, significantly lower than expected, marking the first month-over-month decline in six years. Core CPI narrowed to 2.6%. Market expectations for the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in July surged from 58.3% to 83.4%. Waller maintained a hawkish tone during his first Congressional hearing, but mild inflation data eased market concerns about recent rate hikes. The earnings season for large banks started strong, with Goldman Sachs up over 9% and JPMorgan Chase up 3.17%. However, IBM plummeted 25%, recording its largest single-day drop in history, becoming the biggest drag on the Dow Jones. The S&P 500 rose 0.38%, the Dow Jones barely rose 0.02%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.90%. SK Hynix's U.S. ADR surged about 27%, with chip stocks strengthening across the board. Gold broke through $4,000, Bitcoin approached $65,000 to hit a three-week high, and oil prices rose due to the situation in the Hormuz region before retreating following Trump's remarks.
Market Performance
The S&P 500 rose 0.38% to 7,543.59 points. The Dow Jones rose 0.02% to 52,508.27 points; IBM's 25% plunge dragged the Dow down by about 425 points single-handedly, while Goldman Sachs' gain contributed about 550 points, partially offsetting this. The Nasdaq rose 0.90% to 26,107.008 points. The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.10% to 29,586.287 points. The Russell 2000 rose 0.39% to 2,964.764 points. The VIX fell 3.85% to 16.50.
Earnings reports from large banks showed significant polarization. JPMorgan Chase rose 3.17%, with quarterly profits hitting a record high; trading business strength exceeded market estimates, and holdings in Visa shares contributed about $4.6 billion in gains. Goldman Sachs was even stronger, with stock price surging over 9%, driven by a quarterly record of $4.6 billion earned by trading desks amid volatile market conditions in Q2. Bank of America also set a quarterly record in trading business, closing up 1.91%. Citigroup's core business data was actually not bad, but drag from the cost side caused the stock price to still fall over 5%. Wells Fargo's earnings numbers were also good, but the market did not buy it, with the stock price falling 2.65%.
IBM poured cold water on the market; management lowered Q2 revenue guidance and revealed plans to invest more capital into AI infrastructure. This statement was interpreted as hidden concerns about the prospects of traditional software business. The stock price plummeted 25% in a single day, setting the worst single-day record in company history. The entire SaaS sector was once dragged down significantly, but fortunately, funds entered at low levels during the session, and the decline was basically wiped out by the close.
The Magnificent Seven Index rose 0.97%. Nvidia rose 4.06%, Google A rose 1.99%, Meta rose 0.66%, Tesla rose 0.36%, Amazon rose 0.07%, Apple fell 0.77%, and Microsoft fell 1.55%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.54% to 12,661.93 points. TSMC ADR fell 0.21%, AMD rose 2.57%. SK Hynix ADR surged about 27%, Micron rose about 5%, and SanDisk rose 5%. In Goldman Sachs' AI theme breakdown, AI Semiconductors rose 3.19%, AI Software Infrastructure rose 3.24%, Optical Communication rose 2.92%, Agentic AI rose 2.93%, and the rest of the S&P 500 excluding AI components fell about 0.71% overall.
Semiconductor ETFs rose 2.51%, Technology Sector ETFs rose by the same amount, Banking ETFs fell 0.06%, Global Aviation ETFs and Consumer Staples ETFs fell up to 1.38%, and Healthcare ETFs fell 1.93%.
WTI crude oil rose 2.1% to $79.79/barrel. Brent crude oil returned above $80, hitting a one-month high. Spot gold broke through $4,000, testing $4,100 at one point during the session. Bitcoin surged from the $61,000 level to approach $65,000, reaching a high of $64,583.93, hitting a three-week high.
Short-term U.S. Treasuries reacted first, with the 2-year Treasury yield down 8 basis points, the 10-year yield fell 4 basis points to 4.58%, and the 30-year fell only 2 basis points. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.4%.
Macro and Outlook
The market's movement on the day was almost entirely determined by one data point. June CPI year-over-year growth was only 3.5%, significantly lower than the level market previously worried about, and month-over-month showed a negative value for the first time in six years. Core inflation also narrowed to 2.6%. This result instantly dispelled much of the rate hike anxiety that had shrouded the market. Institutions generally described this data as an unexpected downside surprise, believing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve taking action recently is very low.
However, this does not mean inflation risks are completely eliminated. At least one more rate hike within this year is priced in, and the probability of a second rate hike is still around 50%. What the market received is more like a breathing space, rather than a signal that the inflation issue has been concluded.
Waller's performance at the Congressional hearing was quite thought-provoking. Despite the soft CPI data on the day, he did not use the opportunity to soften his stance. Instead, he continued to emphasize that controlling inflation is a proactive choice and reiterated that the 2% target would not waver. Analysts interpreted this as him further consolidating the Federal Reserve's credibility in fighting inflation without giving any specific path commitments, while this mild inflation data happened to give him room to maneuver.
AI-related stocks showed a polarized situation on the day. On one side, SK Hynix's U.S. ADR surged about 27%, and Micron also rose, with no sign of cooling in the tightness of the storage chain. On the other side, IBM saw its stock price evaporate by a quarter in a single day due to lowering Q2 revenue guidance, plus management revealing plans to invest more capital into AI infrastructure construction, which was interpreted by the market as a signal of pressure on traditional software business. This contrast indicates that current funds highly favor targets that can directly benefit from AI hardware demand. Once a company is labeled as a "spender" rather than a "beneficiary," selling comes fast and fierce. After excluding AI-related individual stocks, the remaining part of the S&P 500 actually fell, indicating market breadth is not healthy.
During the Asian session, there was news that Samsung was considering issuing ADRs in the U.S., and the South Korean stock market surged in response. However, by the close of the day on the same day, Samsung came out to deny the rumor, ending a brief frenzy surrounding the storage chip theme. This shows that current funds react extremely quickly to any developments related to storage.
Earnings season performance for large banks also showed differentiation. JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs both leveraged the severe market volatility in Q2 to push trading business revenue to record highs, with stock prices strengthening accordingly. In contrast, although Citigroup's core business data was not bad, pressure on the expense side led investors to vote with their feet. Wells Fargo's situation was similar; the earnings themselves exceeded expectations but did not gain a positive response from the stock price. This indicates that the market's evaluation criteria for bank stocks no longer remain at simply "whether exceeding expectations"; details on expense control and capital return are instead receiving more attention.
The crude oil market staged a typical geopolitical rollercoaster. Overnight, news emerged that the U.S. military struck a strategic outpost of Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. Coupled with news from the UAE direction about oil tankers being attacked, WTI once surged to the $80 level. However, Trump quickly released easing signals on his social platform, stating that trade and investment arrangements promised by Gulf countries would be used to replace the originally intended 20% toll fee. Oil prices subsequently gave back most of the gains. This volatility also reminds the market that the previously widely held assumption that the U.S. would not sit by and watch long-term global energy supply disruption before the midterm elections is currently being repeatedly tested by reality. Any loosening in tone next cannot be taken lightly. Analysts point out that compared to crude oil spot prices themselves, the tightness of the refined oil market is more worth watching closely; heating oil futures have already hit new highs since the conflict erupted.
TechFlow Perspective
Today's movement verified a clear logical chain: cooling inflation eased rate hike anxiety, market risk appetite subsequently rebounded, but this rebound was highly concentrated in a few sectors. SK Hynix's 27% surge and Goldman Sachs' over 9% surge represent two different types of certainty: one is the certainty of AI hardware demand, and the other is the certainty of trading business in a volatile market. Both types of assets are benefiting from uncertainty, rather than benefiting from general improvement in fundamentals.
IBM's plummet is a warning signal. It shows that the market remains skeptical about corporate capital expenditure shifting towards AI infrastructure. Once this shift affects the cash flow visibility of traditional business, investors' reaction will be very violent. This forms a sharp contrast with SK Hynix's surge; both are AI narratives, but one is identified as a beneficiary, and the other as a potential misallocator of resources.
There are two variables that truly need tracking. First, whether Waller can continue to maintain market confidence in the Federal Reserve's inflation-fighting ability without specific commitments. Second, the real direction of the Hormuz situation. Trump's operation of using trade agreements to replace tariffs indicates that geopolitical risks still have significant political maneuvering space. The direction of oil prices may continue to be dominated by political rhetoric in the short term, with supply and demand fundamentals being secondary factors.
Earnings season has just begun. In the coming weeks, more technology and consumer companies will release results sequentially. Whether market breadth can move from the current extreme concentration to a more balanced broad rise will directly determine how far this rebound can go.
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