US Stock Trend (July 9): Geopolitical Conflicts Drive Up Oil Prices, Semiconductor Sector Bucks the Trend to Gain 2.23%
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US Stock Trend (July 9): Geopolitical Conflicts Drive Up Oil Prices, Semiconductor Sector Bucks the Trend to Gain 2.23%
If tensions in the Strait of Hormuz do not escalate further within this week, the rebound momentum of the chip sector is expected to continue, with the next target level being to regain the 50-day moving average.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy: TechFlow Research
Trump first released hardline signals at the NATO summit before retracting threats, and the market experienced a full sentiment cycle within two hours. Tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz once stalled, Brent crude surged to $78, inflation expectations rose sharply, and the Dow plunged 1.09%. The spread between Brent and WTI widened to $4.5, hitting a three-month high, a quantitative signal of geopolitical risk premium. However, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.23%, with record single-day capital inflow into the chip sector. Nvidia rose 3.65%, single-handedly pulling the Nasdaq back into positive territory. Cryptocurrencies instead fell in tow, Bitcoin fell 1.69% to $62,290, Ethereum fell 1.58% to $1,743.54.
Market Performance
S&P 500 fell 0.28%, closing at 7,482.71 points. Dow fell 1.09%, closing at 52,348.39 points. Nasdaq Composite rose 0.20%, closing at 25,870.652 points. Nasdaq 100 rose 0.27%, closing at 29,252.562 points. Russell 2000 fell 0.88%, closing at 2,956.389 points. VIX rose 4.65%, closing at 16.88.
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.23%, closing at 12,574.967 points. The index is currently only 1.4% away from its 50-day moving average (around 12,750 points); if it can effectively break through, it will confirm a mid-term rebound trend. Nvidia rose 3.65%, Apple rose 0.88%, Amazon fell 0.96%, Google Class A fell 1.39%, Microsoft fell 1.41%, Meta fell 2.02%, Tesla fell 2.23%. Semiconductor ETF rose 1.99%, attracting $5.4 billion in inflows in a single day, four times the historical single-day record. TSMC ADR rose 0.93%, AMD rose 0.25%.
Technology sector ETFs rose over 1.24%, Energy sector ETFs rose 1.76%. Regional Bank ETF fell 2.30%, Banking ETF fell 2.27%, Global Airline ETF fell 2.21%. Interest-rate sensitive sector Real Estate ETF fell 1.6%, Materials sector fell 2.49%.
WTI crude closed up 4.4%, at $73.52/barrel. Brent crude closed up 5.2%, at $78.02/barrel, briefly breaking through $80 during the session. The spread between the two widened to $4.5, reflecting that market concerns over Middle East supply disruptions are more concentrated on the global pricing benchmark. Spot gold fell 0.6%. The US dollar surged during the session before retreating. 10-year US Treasury yield rose 2.6 basis points, 10-year TIPS yield hit a 1-year high. Regarding digital currencies, Bitcoin fell 1.69%, at $62,290; Ethereum fell 1.58%, at $1,743.54.
Macro and Outlook
Trump claimed at the NATO summit that the US-Iran ceasefire agreement had ended and hinted that the US military would launch a new round of strikes. Iran subsequently announced a counterattack, tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz once stalled, and oil prices quickly surged to $78. Subsequently, Trump claimed that tensions would ease soon, and market sentiment reversed sharply.
Escalating geopolitical conflict drove US Treasury yields and inflation expectations sharply higher. The money market subsequently increased bets on a Fed rate hike before October this year, with probability rising from 18% on Monday to 32%, nearly doubling. The Fed's June meeting minutes were released on the same day; a few officials had raised reasons for a rate hike, and officials generally viewed upside inflation risks as the current main threat, with inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027 raised compared to April.
Behind the record capital inflow into the chip sector lies a clear judgment by institutional investors: geopolitical conflicts are expected to ease, while the long-term growth logic of AI remains unchanged. The Semiconductor ETF has fallen cumulatively by about 16% over the past two weeks, and institutions built positions heavily near the 50-day moving average. This was not panic selling, but a determined entry for a phase correction. Historically, the average return of the semiconductor sector one week after a single-day inflow exceeding $2 billion is +3.6%, with a probability of positive return reaching 78%.
Cryptocurrencies declined, reflecting a consistent reaction of risk assets under geopolitical uncertainty; Bitcoin and Ethereum did not follow the chip sector's rebound. This indicates that investors in the crypto market and institutions have different expectations regarding geopolitical conflicts.
US crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased, alleviating the geopolitical risk premium. Average gasoline prices slightly rebounded to $3.80/gallon. The suppression of risk appetite due to rising oil price volatility may be more profound than the impact of the absolute oil price.
The IMF lowered its 2026 global economic growth forecast to 3.0%, warning that Middle East war, trade fragmentation, and AI expectation corrections constitute ongoing risks.
TechFlow Perspective
This trading day was essentially a divergence between institutions and retail investors. When oil prices surged, the bond market was under pressure, and inflation expectations warmed up, retail investors sold off cryptocurrencies and high-beta tech stocks, while institutions heavily bet a record $5.4 billion on the chip sector.
The institutions' logic is clear: the lifecycle of geopolitical conflicts is usually measured in days, while the growth cycle of AI is measured in years. Trump's "threat then retreat" pattern suggests this will not really escalate into a full-scale war. From historical experience, buy windows often accompany each Middle East crisis. Referring to the January 2020 Soleimani incident, the S&P 500 fell 2.1% in the 5 trading days after the conflict broke out, but subsequently rebounded 7.3% in the following 20 trading days; in the early stage of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Nasdaq fell 6.8% within two weeks, and subsequently rebounded 12.4% in the following two months. The "golden buy window" for geopolitical shocks usually appears 5-10 trading days after the panic peak.
The key lies in the next 48 hours. If tensions in the Strait of Hormuz do not further escalate within this week, the rebound momentum of the chip sector is expected to continue, with the next target being to stand above the 50-day moving average again (around 12,750 points). If the situation suddenly heats up, this $5.4 billion capital inflow may face the risk of being trapped. However, judging from the level of institutional confidence, they have already bet that geopolitical risks are short-term.
Oil prices breaking through $78 did push up inflation expectations, but this shock is not yet enough to shake the valuation logic of the chip and AI sectors. As long as the chip sector can hold the rebound position this week, the broader market is expected to test highs upward again next week.
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