US Stock Market Trends (June 29): Micron and Apple Reflect Hardware Pricing Pressures; This Week Awaits Powell’s Speech and NFP for Direction
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US Stock Market Trends (June 29): Micron and Apple Reflect Hardware Pricing Pressures; This Week Awaits Powell’s Speech and NFP for Direction
Profits are generated upstream, while the downstream is bleeding.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy: Tide Research
Last week, starting with Apple’s announcement of price hikes, we began dissecting who stands to profit in the AI hardware cycle. Micron surged 15%, Apple plunged 6%, and the broader tech sector entered its fifth consecutive day of declines. Markets are repricing a supply-chain logic that had been concealed for three months: memory costs have shifted from chipmakers’ profits to downstream consumer electronics’ cost base.
The weekend U.S.-Iran mutual strikes merely accelerated this turning point. Oil prices rebounded and geopolitical risk premiums returned—but what truly shifts the macro direction is the choice markets face over the coming week: Will Waller continue his hawkish performance, or hint at an exit? Will Friday’s nonfarm payroll data be strong enough to cement rate hikes as consensus—or weak enough to reopen space for rate cuts?
Market Performance
The S&P 500 fell 0.05% to 7,354.02, down 1.95% on the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.09% to 51,876.11, up 0.60% weekly. The Nasdaq declined 0.24% to 25,297.62, down 4.60% on the week—marking five straight days of losses for both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500.
Tech stocks splintered sharply. SpaceX fell over 17% weekly; Oracle tumbled over 19%, its worst weekly drop since 2001; NVIDIA and Google each slid nearly 9%; Microsoft bucked the trend, rising nearly 6%. Capital rotated from growth into defensive sectors—healthcare rose over 3%, with Moderna surging over 10% to lead gains.
News of OpenAI’s delayed IPO hammered SoftBank, sending its stock down 13%. After Micron’s 15% surge on Thursday, it fell 6.7% on Friday—the pricing framework for the chip ecosystem has pivoted from “ironclad AI infrastructure assurance” to “cyclical re-pricing.”
Commodities: Brent crude fell 4.34% to $71.99 per barrel, down 10.65% weekly; gold turned positive late Friday, rising 1.2% to $4,078.70 per ounce, though still down 3.44% on the week. Following the weekend U.S.-Iran strikes, oil rebounded—Brent rose nearly 2% and WTI over 1% in early Monday Asia-Pacific trading. Yet how long this rebound lasts hinges on the outcome of Qatar’s negotiations scheduled for June 30.
Macroeconomic Outlook & Key Events Ahead
Monday–Wednesday: Waller’s Forum Debut
The European Central Bank’s annual central banking forum runs Monday through Wednesday, with Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller delivering remarks on the evening of July 1. This marks his first overseas appearance since assuming office. With the Fed having already signaled hawkishness in June, any continuation of that stance at the forum would push market-implied odds of further rate hikes significantly higher.
Wednesday: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls
The U.S. June nonfarm payrolls report is due. Markets expect +113,000 jobs added and unemployment steady at 4.3%. A stronger-than-expected print would reinforce rate-hike expectations; an unexpected jump in unemployment could trigger a far swifter repricing toward rate cuts than currently anticipated.
Throughout the Week: Concentrated Price Hikes Across the Supply Chain
On July 1, over a dozen semiconductor firms—including Murata, Infineon, Texas Instruments, and Yangjie Electronics—will implement price increases ranging from 10% to 40%. This round spans everything from upstream materials to end-market chips, directly reflecting the cost pressures behind Apple’s and Microsoft’s price hikes announced Thursday. On the same day, Samsung unveiled a 1,000-trillion-KRW domestic investment plan—its largest ever and the biggest corporate investment in South Korean history—spanning ten years.
Fed Officials Turn More Hawkish:
Kashkari revised his 2024 rate outlook—from “one cut” to “one hike.”
Tide Research Perspective
Last week’s narrative was straightforward: Micron’s and Apple’s divergent moves point to the same reality—the AI hardware cost tailwind is shifting from chipmakers’ bottom lines to consumer electronics companies’ cost accounts. Micron’s 15% rally signals “supply-demand imbalance—prices will rise further”; Apple’s 6% drop signals “I can’t absorb these costs—I must raise prices.” Markets have made their choice clear: profits lie upstream; downstream players bleed.
The weekend U.S.-Iran strikes altered oil’s trajectory—but not this fundamental supply-chain reality. This week’s true inflection points are Waller’s speech and the nonfarm payroll report. If Waller stays hawkish *and* nonfarm data again proves robust, high-valuation tech stocks will remain under pressure—cost pressures ripple downstream even as rising-rate expectations compress valuations. If either Waller or the nonfarm report delivers a dovish signal, chip stocks and tech leaders may find room for a rebound.
This week’s market direction hinges entirely on how these two events unfold.
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