US Stock Market Trends (June 22): Hormuz Agreement Shifts; Thursday’s PCE Data and Micron to Shape Chip Sector Direction
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US Stock Market Trends (June 22): Hormuz Agreement Shifts; Thursday’s PCE Data and Micron to Shape Chip Sector Direction
Last week’s answer was provisional; this week is the true test of the pricing framework.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy: TechFlow Research
Over the weekend, the U.S.-Iran agreement began to unravel. On Saturday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz; on Sunday, the Iranian negotiating delegation walked out of talks in protest after Trump issued threats, and the U.S.-Iran negotiations in Switzerland remain suspended. U.S. equity index futures declined across the board pre-market, geopolitical risk premiums are re-accumulating, and the trajectory of negotiations is today’s most immediate pricing variable at market open.
Market Performance
Last week, semiconductor stocks were the dominant theme. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hit a new all-time high on Thursday. Though the Fed’s hawkish stance signaled by the FOMC meeting was overshadowed by the U.S.-Iran deal announcement, the S&P 500 rose 0.9% for the week. SpaceX completed its debut as a public company with a cumulative gain of 37%, though it closed with two consecutive down days; its $20 billion bond issuance plan was also disclosed, signaling the end of its honeymoon phase. Accenture plunged 18% on Thursday—the worst-performing large-cap blue-chip stock last week.
Macro & Forward-Looking Events
Latest status of U.S.-Iran negotiations: The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The Iranian delegation walked out of Sunday’s talks to protest Trump’s threatening remarks. U.S. media reports indicate Iranian officials continue informal contact with U.S. counterparts, but substantive negotiations have effectively paused. Iran’s precondition is for Israel to halt its military operations in Lebanon; Trump, meanwhile, publicly warned he may seize control of the Strait of Hormuz to collect tolls and threatened even more severe strikes. Both sides are escalating pressure—progress—or lack thereof—in negotiations before today’s open will be the most direct pricing driver for oil and energy stocks.
On Monday, Marvell Technology and Flex officially join the S&P 500 Index. Most passive funds completed their weight realignment by Friday’s close; today’s open will see residual rebalancing activity—watch for liquidity premiums in both stocks during the first few minutes of trading.
On Tuesday, MSCI will announce its annual Market Classification Review. If South Korea is placed on the Developed Market Watch List, hundreds of billions of dollars in passive flows could lift semiconductor ETFs. SK Hynix’s ADR application is expected to receive SEC approval as early as this week. Both developments point in the same direction—creating resonance across the memory sector.
Thursday, June 25, is the most critical day of the week, with May’s PCE report and Micron’s earnings released simultaneously. Core PCE is expected to rise year-on-year from 3.3% to 3.4%. Deutsche Bank has already forecast two 25-basis-point rate hikes totaling 50 bps this year, with the first potentially as early as July. If PCE data comes in hotter than expected, a September hike shifts from probabilistic to consensus—and Powell’s hawkish tone gains strong data support. If data softens, rate-cut expectations will be repriced faster than anyone anticipates.
Micron’s earnings serve as the most direct litmus test for the AI narrative this week. Wall Street currently expects Q3 revenue of ~$3.45 billion, EPS of ~$19.72, and gross margin of ~81%. Its HBM capacity for the full year has been fully booked by customers through end-2026 and extended into early-2027. This quarter, markets will focus most intently on visibility into HBM supply for 2027, progress ramping HBM4 into volume production, and whether Micron can retain its share in NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin supply chain. Micron has confirmed inclusion as an HBM4-certified supplier for Vera Rubin—the biggest narrative upgrade last quarter. Any language suggesting capacity constraints or conservative guidance will be seized upon by bears, especially given the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index just reached a new all-time high—tolerance for disappointment is extremely low.
NVIDIA’s annual shareholder meeting takes place late Monday night Beijing time. Ramping production capacity for Blackwell and Vera architectures is the central focus; any commentary falling short of expectations would directly undermine the AI capital-expenditure thesis. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 is expected to launch this week—marking the shift from models to executable agents. If its release coincides with Micron’s earnings and NVIDIA’s shareholder meeting, Thursday will be the most AI-narrative-dense 24-hour period of the week.
Friday marks the effective date of the Russell Reconstitution at market close—small-cap volatility will systematically rise.
TechFlow Perspective
Last week’s answers were only temporary; this week is the true test of the pricing framework. Two parallel narratives are unfolding: the geopolitical track hinges on whether U.S.-Iran talks can restart; the AI track depends on Micron’s guidance and NVIDIA’s production ramp. Semiconductor stocks hit a new all-time high last week—whether that level holds depends entirely on the dual verdict delivered Thursday. Deutsche Bank has already capitulated to Powell, forecasting 50 bps of hikes this year. If PCE data runs hot *and* Micron delivers conservative guidance, the stocks that rallied hardest last week will fall hardest this week. If both deliver what the market wants, the AI narrative’s pricing framework will reset its direction—and this week’s volatility will become the ideal entry window.
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