US Stock Market Trends (June 24): South Korea’s Stock Market Plunge Rattles Global Chip Sector; Micron Drops Over 10%; Long-Term Supply Certainty Under “Hard Test”
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US Stock Market Trends (June 24): South Korea’s Stock Market Plunge Rattles Global Chip Sector; Micron Drops Over 10%; Long-Term Supply Certainty Under “Hard Test”
The AI arbitrage cycle has transitioned from frenzy to rational pricing.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy: Tide Research
On Monday, South Korea’s KOSPI index plunged 10%, with SK Hynix and Samsung each falling over 12%, triggered by rumors that SK Hynix may slow its HBM4 capacity expansion. This shock to the Korean equity market instantly spilled over into U.S. semiconductor stocks: Micron plummeted 13.18% to $1,051.77; SanDisk dropped 13.64%; Marvell fell 8%; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined 7.87%; and the Nasdaq closed down 2.21% at 25,587.04.
Market Performance
The Nasdaq fell 2.21% to 25,587.04; the S&P 500 declined 1.44% to 7,365.46; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.09% to 51,666.84. Chip stocks bore the brunt of the day’s losses, with memory chips hit hardest. Micron, SanDisk, and Western Digital slid 13.18%, 13.64%, and 8.5%, respectively—triggering a broad repricing across the entire memory chip ecosystem. NVIDIA fell over 4%, AMD dropped more than 5%, Intel declined over 6%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down 7.87%.
Defensive sectors proved relatively resilient. IBM rose 5.04% to $264.94; Accenture gained 1.75% to $127.01; Walmart climbed 1.91% to $119.42; and Johnson & Johnson increased 3.37% to $239.075.
SpaceX rose 0.98% to $156.11, ending three consecutive days of declines. The VIX spiked to 19.49, up 12.79% from the previous day. Commodity markets weakened: WTI crude oil fell to $73.10—the lowest in nearly three months; Brent crude dipped to $77.20; and gold broke below $4,100. Bitcoin slid 4.23% to $62,266, while Ethereum fell roughly 5.7%. The U.S. Dollar Index hit a more-than-one-year high, and the offshore RMB briefly approached 6.80, down nearly 200 basis points intraday.
Macroeconomic Outlook & Forward Guidance
Critically, this wave of selling did not target AI demand itself but rather reflected a reassessment of overly optimistic expectations around memory chip capacity expansion. Rumors about SK Hynix slowing its HBM4 ramp triggered a simple yet fatal logic chain: if supply-side signals for HBM weaken, the certainty of the broader AI infrastructure cycle declines.
This Thursday’s PCE inflation data will determine whether markets reprice federal funds futures. CME data shows traders are now pricing in a rate hike in September—just two weeks ago, they expected only one hike for the entire year. If the PCE print comes in hotter than anticipated, the probability of a rate hike would jump above 50%. Also on Thursday, Micron will release its earnings report. Wall Street expects Q3 revenue of approximately $3.45 billion. Key focus areas include whether HBM gross margin holds steady at 81%, and management’s guidance on HBM capacity through 2027. Any cautious commentary could trigger a secondary sell-off.
The U.S.-Iran oil waiver has taken effect, allowing Iran to sell oil for 60 days; rising inventory and supply expectations continue to weigh on oil prices, effectively eroding geopolitical risk premiums.
Tide Research Perspective
The most direct implication of this selloff is that the AI arbitrage cycle has shifted from euphoria to rational pricing. South Korea’s 10% equity market drop is not a technical correction—it reflects large institutions beginning to question the sustainability of AI-related capital expenditure growth. Memory chip prices have tripled, yet whether demand can match this aggressive supply outlook has become a hard question.
Micron was previously priced as the ironclad backbone of AI infrastructure—but is now being priced as a cyclical commodity. Such a shift requires only one piece of bad news to ignite. The Dow’s modest decline versus the Nasdaq’s sharp 2%+ drop reveals a widening divergence, signaling that the AI sector is losing its dominance. Thursday’s Micron earnings and PCE data represent a watershed moment. Markets aren’t seeking just quarterly results—they’re demanding long-term supply certainty. That certainty has already deteriorated significantly since yesterday.
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