Research Report Analysis: Kyber’s Delay Tears Apart NVIDIA’s Supply Chain, PCB Market Undergoes Restructuring
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Research Report Analysis: Kyber’s Delay Tears Apart NVIDIA’s Supply Chain, PCB Market Undergoes Restructuring
This delay in the PCB specification upgrade is not bad news but rather a process of re-prioritization.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Rita
TideResearch Insight
Jefferies released an NVIDIA research report on June 22, maintaining its “Buy” rating and raising the target price to $300 (a 42% upside from the current $210.69). Its core thesis is surprising: while bullish on NVIDIA, it delivers a sobering outlook for the AI server PCB supply chain. The Kyber backplane PCB product is highly likely to be delayed until 2028—or potentially canceled altogether—leading Jefferies to downgrade its global AI PCB market size forecasts for 2027 and 2028 by 5% and 11%, respectively, and its CCL (copper-clad laminate) forecasts by 8% and 16%. Though seemingly negative, this adjustment is reshaping the roster of winners across the AI server supply chain.
What Kyber Delay Means
Jefferies considers the Kyber delay virtually certain. Rubin Ultra was originally slated to adopt orthogonal backplane PCBs (Kyber architecture), but due to inter-rack connectivity technology bottlenecks, it will retain the Oberon architecture through 2027. Kyber’s earliest possible launch is now pushed to 2028—and in the worst-case scenario, may be scrapped entirely. This directly impacts the PCB iteration timeline.
Yet delay does not mean regression. Switch boards and mid-backplanes continue migrating toward high-end materials; M9/M10-grade CCL and PTFE-based processes are becoming industry standards. Chip-level interconnect technology (CoWoP) is expected to penetrate as early as 2027. The trend of rising unit value remains intact—only the timing window has been extended.
Thus, the biggest beneficiaries of this delay lie upstream—not in manufacturing. Suppliers of fiberglass fabric and CCL already face tight supply conditions, granting them strong pricing power and cost-pass-through capability. PCB manufacturers, meanwhile, confront more immediate pressure from order contraction. Copper cable vendors benefit from the extended Oberon lifecycle, reducing their risk of being displaced by PCB-based interconnects.
Why Focus on Specifications, Not Just TAM
On the surface, Kyber’s postponement significantly lowers projected market sizes for AI PCBs and CCL. But a closer look reveals this adjustment reflects a rescheduling of specification upgrades—not a reduction in underlying demand.
Data shows the original 2027 global AI PCB market forecast stood at $25 billion; excluding Kyber, it drops to $24 billion—a 5% reduction. This is not “shrinkage,” but “timing shift.” Kyber orders won’t vanish—they’ll simply roll forward from 2027 into 2028. Meanwhile, the volume vacated in 2027 will be absorbed by Oberon upgrades, which carry higher specification requirements.
This implies unit PCB value doesn’t change linearly. Low-end products decline in value, while high-end ones rise—creating room for total-value restructuring under mixed architectures. Profitability accrues to players positioned in high-specification segments and upstream material supply chains, whereas manufacturers relying solely on low-end capacity expansion face passive pressure.
Supply Chain Divergence: Who Gets淘汰ed, Who Stays in the Inner Circle
The Kyber delay accelerates the PCB industry’s elimination race. Mid-tier manufacturers face the greatest pressure. High-end players possess deep technical expertise and strong customer stickiness, enabling them to keep pace with NVIDIA’s specification upgrade cadence. Low-end capacity providers leverage cost advantages to quickly meet baseline demand. But manufacturers stuck in the middle—unable to handle high-end complexity or compete on cost—will be squeezed out.
Upstream material suppliers gain structural opportunities. Fiberglass fabric and CCL vendors serve the entire industry. Canceling Kyber won’t reduce overall demand for fiberglass or CCL—it merely shifts the demand mix. Supply constraints will persist in the near term, leaving pricing power firmly in the hands of material suppliers.
Copper cable vendors receive a “stay of execution” from the Kyber delay. Prior to Kyber’s launch, copper cables faced progressive displacement by high-speed PCB interconnects. With Oberon’s lifecycle extended, copper cables retain viable applications.
Why NVIDIA Still Warrants a $300 Target Price
Although Jefferies downgraded its TAM forecasts for PCBs and CCL, it remains optimistic about NVIDIA’s long-term prospects. The Kyber delay neither undermines NVIDIA’s GPU core competitiveness nor alters the growth trajectory of AI server shipments.
Kyber aims to further optimize rack efficiency beyond 2028. Its delay means NVIDIA loses a 2027 innovation narrative—but not 2027 chip sales. Specification upgrades—including M9/M10 CCL and CoWoP—remain on schedule, and the unit value of AI servers continues rising.
Financially, CY28E NVIDIA EPS is projected at $14.14; applying a 21x P/E yields the $300 target price. This valuation reflects confidence in the long-term certainty of AI demand—not the timing of any single product generation.
What Analysts Are Betting On
Jefferies’ final hierarchy is: upstream materials > NVIDIA > copper cables > downstream PCBs.
Its bullish stance targets the “high-value-added” and “supply-constrained” segments of the AI supply chain. GPUs—the most critical compute resource—command the highest value and most resilient demand. Upstream materials represent bottlenecks; scarcity drives premium pricing. Copper cables gain breathing room from the delay. PCB manufacturers suffer most, as they’re neither bottlenecks nor core-competency holders—just executors.
This delay in PCB specification upgrades isn’t bad news—it’s a reordering process. After the reshuffle, inner-circle players and companies correctly positioned in high-value segments will enjoy higher margins, while those waiting in line get left behind.
Disclaimer
This article is TideResearch’s summary and interpretation of a third-party brokerage research report. Ratings, target prices, earnings forecasts, and related judgments cited herein reflect the views of that brokerage’s analysts only, representing their institutional positions—not TideResearch’s views—and do not constitute investment advice.
Please note three points when reading: First, target prices represent analysts’ expectations for roughly the next 12 months—not commitments—and are subject to repeated revision based on performance and market conditions. Second, sell-side reports are inherently biased toward optimism, and some covered companies maintain investment banking relationships with the issuing brokerage. Third, the real value of a research report lies in its core logic and underlying assumptions—not any single target price. Focus on the logic—not just the number.
Markets involve risk; decisions must be made independently. This article should not serve as the basis for buying or selling any securities.
Data Sources: Jefferies Report (Jacky He et al., June 22, 2026) · Prismark · NVIDIA Public Financial Reports
TideResearch · 2026 June
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